SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[winner69]

Just looking into the balance sheet. Liabilities to total assets up again to 57.1%. They better hope the Pokeno settlement will be really cheap and interest rates stay low.

On the other hand - high debts (i.e. low equity) are good for the ROE factor, but still - while 16.7% is a not too bad return, didn't they mention they try to achieve 20%? Lets hope that they don't try to do that by further increasing the debt ...

Only doing what Adrian Orr wants companies to do ....borrow more to get the economy moving faster ...debt has never been so cheap he says.

[RTM]

I was wondering why they say that they don't expect a substantial settlement for Pokeno "We are comfortable that our legal exposure is not substantial" and dived into the financial notes. Took me a while to find the relevant passage (on page 104 ... ) and surprise - they say they don't really know:



Given that they are not able to estimate any potential liability - it could be a big number as well - couldn't it?

Do they use the same auditors as Font-error ?

[Beagle]

I was wondering why they say that they don't expect a substantial settlement for Pokeno "We are comfortable that our legal exposure is not substantial" and dived into the financial notes. Took me a while to find the relevant passage (on page 104 ... ) and surprise - they say they don't really know:

Given that they are not able to estimate any potential liability - it could be a big number as well - couldn't it?

Some speculation if they had to completely rebuild elsewhere they could be up for north of $300m. Add in possible breech of contract to suppliers and customers and who knows ?
Speculation on another forum when it existed was a possible worst case scenario of up to $500m all up. Shall I leave it to you to recalculate their gearing ratio if they had to borrow another $500m ?, (assuming they could find any bank prepared to lend it to them ?). I'd expect others to be fully cognisant of how stretched their balance sheet is. What does a good boxer do when they have someone on the ropes ? Go in for the knockout punch ! Business can be ugly eh...not everyone play's nice, not that you'd think Synlait management or the board are even aware of this Board and management asleep at the wheel just like another milk processor ?

[dobby41]

Some speculation if they had to completely rebuild elsewhere they could be up for north of $300m.

If they had to build elsewhere they'd also have to remove what they have already built and return the site to its old state. More expense.

[JimmyTrade]

Recently increased the size of there lactoferrin processing plant, coupled with increased demand in lactoferrin. Believe lactoferrin was a contributing factor to beingmate issues with infant formula.

I can see more dairy processors trying to get into this field while the demand is hot, can see price coming down significantly (fine balance of supply and demand for this protein).

[BlackPeter]

Do they use the same auditors as Font-error ?

Excellent question. SML do use Deloitte, and Fonterra got audited last year by pwc (I assume this year as well, but we shall see).

However - here is something frightening ... Deloitte (i.e. SML's auditor) used to audit as well the famous and well loved CBL Insurance. As we all know - they didn't discover for years that CBL was bankrupt while they attested them the correctness of their financial statements without reservation.

I am sure this will give SML shareholders the warm fuzzies that they can trust the judgement of these auditors.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...764/307437.pdf

No progress on other product registrations and no idea on timeframe either...oh dear... First page - cloudy / misty seems appropriate.
No guidance on product volume to ATM. Trust us, we know what we're doing lol

[whatsup]

Only doing what Adrian Orr wants companies to do ....borrow more to get the economy moving faster ...debt has never been so cheap he says.

That is what Fonterra modelled their business plan on and look where they are today !!

[Redmack]

I might be wrong, my recollection is that Synlait had received a court decision on the covenant. It appeared to be safe to start site works etc. at that time. Is it reasonable to receive a court decision and not to proceed with developing a facility because you are waiting for a possible appeal? How long would you wait? I suspect that the covenant holder’s appeal would never have eventuated until Synlait commenced works. I don’t think Synlait are as silly as everyone thinks. They have an opponent who had the luxury of waiting for Synlait to act before appealing. If I was such an opponent, I would wait for Synlait to commit to the development before appealing a decision. I certainly would not have given any indication of what I was planning either. It certainily raises questions on the court's reasoning.

[dobby41]

That is what Fonterra modelled their business plan on and look where they are today !!

Fonterra didn't have a lot of choices - their shareholders (the farmers) don't want to stump up with capital (they'd rather leave the capital on the farm).