SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[BlackPeter]

What the heck is happening with Synlait? Everybody else (including ATM) seems to have shrugged off the virus fever, but Synlait just keeps dropping.

Attachment 10987

Just for clarity: Synlait is the blue line, the brown line is the NZX50 ... what an amazing investment Synlait was the last 6 months ...

Running out of pink pixels?

Next day in court approaching?

Who knows ...

[Beagle]

In the Meantime until mid-2020 when the Supreme Court Hearing happens and makes its judgement, it looks like a prudent decision to just get on with business and process all that milk at Pokeno. Get the China certifications and build the supply side.

It would have been idiotic and poor decision making to have just stopped everything after the appeal court ruling just in case it didn’t work out.

Too many folk here have hoped for a train wreck when in actual fact it appears Synlait have taken a prudent path just getting on with the business.

All the nonsense about pink fonts, diversity etc just diminishes the otherwise stellar reputations of the detractors who grasp at every straw trying to detract from the good management decisions.

Egg on faces.

In any event, it will be many months until we know the outcome of the court hearings on the covenants. Meanwhile its business As usual and little space for the non holding detractors to exercise their lessening influence.

Clearly the market already knows that in as much as the share price has debunked the outspoken naysayers.

Only time will tell if management are complete idiots with Pokeno or their legal team knew their stuff. Far, far to early to start the crowing as though some victory is already assured and that's just about as arrogant as Synlait's approach with Pokeno itself Yeah, run the factory, get all the approvals and sign up all the farmers and effectively play Russian Roulette with shareholders money with three bullets in the gun. What a marvelously prudent way to manage risk.

Some companies put themselves into a position where they could easily derail and that could easily have happened today. Far to early to start the bleating like a lamb lost from its mother about other people's posts. If they finally win their day in the Supreme court you can have your little victory dance if that's what rings your bells, and not before.

If Synlait are smart this won't see the light of day in the Supreme court appeal and they will settle this thing out of court.

What the heck is happening with Synlait? Everybody else (including ATM) seems to have shrugged off the virus fever, but Synlait just keeps dropping.



Just for clarity: Synlait is the blue line, the brown line is the NZX50 ... what an amazing investment Synlait was the last 6 months ...

Running out of pink pixels?

Next day in court approaching?

Who knows ...

Yes what an "amazing" investment alright as forewarned very, very clearly by myself. Just a reminder that this is a very heavily geared company, (about 57% last time I looked which was quite a while ago now) and faces what amounts to a binary outcome with their last port of call for relief with the supreme court. The risk should be crystal clear and is only now just starting to be reflected in the share price.

From a technical perspective the break down through clear long term support at $8.50 to a new one year low of $8.25 is quite ominous especially on a day when the market bounced back quite nicely. Maybe if they make their pink font even more super sized in the next announcement that will help ?

[dreamcatcher]

Big numbers yesterday 665,482 for a stock that normally barely raises a few peanuts daily. Personally not tempted to sell down as stock is in my target and time range. Court decision now a whisker away but happy for impatient people that wish to sell.

All stocks have their day and this one will also with the DOW having another massive overnight day .....................

[Beagle]

Quite big numbers yesterday too and another move down to a fresh 12 month low on high volume during a day when the NZX50 bounced strongly !
Looking pretty ominous as the one year chart shows SML Chart.jpg

[winner69]

Quite big numbers yesterday too and another move down to a fresh 12 month low on high volume during a day when the NZX50 bounced strongly !
Looking pretty ominous as the one year chart shows SML Chart.jpg

Market finally realising there’s nothing really special about Synlait and it’s slowly rerating it down from its outrageous highs. Madness took the price to near $13 eh and even $10 was outrageous.

Lot more downside for this capital intensive producer.

[winner69]

Analysts revised their targets upwards as the share price kept going up

They’re a bit slack in following the share price down

Now holiday season over they’ll start revising their targets. ...DOWN I fear

[Beagle]

Haven't said it for a while so it possibly bears repeating but I am staggered at their arrogance to build and commission the Pokeno plant in the face of an existing legal ruling against them.

Management are betting the entire profit the company has made in the last 6 years on a successful appeal at the Supreme court. While not an existential threat to the company if it loses it will be profoundly damaging both in terms of building a new facility in the Waikato and with relationships with suppliers, customers and staff.

Don't want to predict what the share price will be if they lose other than to say it will be extremely ugly.

What concerns me about this company apart from everything else previously mentioned is there appears to be more leaks than a sieve. On pending good news it rises before the announcement.
What are we then to make of the current break down through the $8.50 support line ?
All out of court attempts to settle this have been fully exhausted and Synlait have been told to get stuffed and the aggrieved party think they have a water tight case in the Supreme court ?
Are Synlait about to be totally snookered with their facility at Pokeno ? A cease and desist operations order has been sought ?

One thing for sure, you cannot rely on Synlait management to be totally forthcoming that's for sure !!

[winner69]

After a global search for a new CEO Synlait appointed Leon as their new man ...a high calibre man who knew the industry inside out

Since he commenced Synlait’s market cap has fallen by about $600m

That’s some effort

[winner69]

I don’t think Leon has purchased any shares

And the LTI thinks keep on lapsing as well

Hope he’s paid pretty well,

[Beagle]

After a global search for a new CEO Synlait appointed Leon as their new man ...a high calibre man who knew the industry inside out

Since he commenced Synlait’s market cap has fallen by about $600m

That’s some effort

Sure is mate but the company has made having a comprehensive diversity and inclusion culture their absolute top priority as well as focusing on ensuring other ESG matters are best possible practice so shareholders are heaps better off because they know every whim and nuance of other stakeholders is being fully catered for

I have just realized the crux of the problem...the size of the pink font in their 2020 NZX releases is too small http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...576/315769.pdf

Share price was way higher in June 2019, over $10 when they used to do their announcements and PINK FONT this way
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...714/301239.pdf

Fix that back to how it was and all will be forgiven ...see...this management fix it stuff is pretty easy when you know what you're doing.

The day of judgement is coming soon http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...125/311618.pdf