SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[dreamcatcher]

They won't even make $60m this year, you read it from me first. I don't fancy their chances at the Supreme Court either. This would have been settled already if the other party didn't think they had a bullet proof case.

Personal thoughts "stopping the build was the goal" not the money but who actually signed off on the build still unknown ?
Between 6th & 7th Jan over 1.12m shares traded on 13th SP collapses with 1.28m traded the pudding was the extra 343K on the 14th

Jarden's valuation released 11th a few days before tumble, my question did Jarden partake in the short? Was shorting the stock on company news just a way to increase (cheaper) holdings as small numbers move SML SP big up/down.

GS update 13/Jan SM1 will provide further details on its longer-term strategy on 19th March 2020 when it announces its 1H20 result. "We forecast 1H20 NPAT of NZ$27.7mn vs company guidance for 1H20 NPAT of between NZ$26.5mn and NZ$28.5mn"

My preference has been to hold through turbulence

[Lola]

....and Chris Lee once said Synlait deserves to be of the first chapters in a book of ‘Great NZ Corporate Successes’

From where it’s come from Spose it still deserves to be included.

He’s always been brilliant that man. Never been wrong. In his view anyway. But to be fair anybody with a view in everything will often stub their toe.

[Beagle]

Was quite unusual for Jarden to make their updated valuation of $8.84 on 11 February 2020 public knowledge, (seeing as one would assume they made a company visit before doing this) and this just immediately before a sizeable company downgrade. Major egg on face at the very least, some might even be tempted to read more into it.

What is more concerning is the sharp downward movement of the share price on high volume immediately before the downgrade.
This comes after a sharp upward rerating in the share price last year on heavy volume immediately preceding some good news. This reeks of insider trading on both occasions. Smells worse than rotten eggs.

I presume you are talking about who signed off on the decision to build the Pokeno facility in the first place despite the legal challenge and hostility ? John Penno was in charge then so he is the architect of this astronomically sized game of Pokeno Russian Roulette they are playing.

I choose to invest in companies where the directors exercise prudent judgement around managing business risk. Saying Synlait is a massive fail on that count is the understatement of the year.

[Cadalac123]

Sick of this BS insider trading. Seen it with SPY,SML, GTK and QEX now. NZX asleep most of the time.
Joke of a market.

[couta1]

Lol check out the 6 month chart, that cliff faced drop off looks scary but equally impressive. PS-Could be worth a punt soon.

[winner69]

Lol check out the 6 month chart, that cliff faced drop off looks scary but equally impressive. PS-Could be worth a punt soon.

Has to be a punt soon

A subject in the book “Great NZ Corporate Successes” at a 50% discount

Those opportunities don’t come often.

[Beagle]

Lol check out the 6 month chart, that cliff faced drop off looks scary but equally impressive. PS-Could be worth a punt soon.

Has to be a punt soon

A subject in the book “Great NZ Corporate Successes” at a 50% discount

Those opportunities don’t come often.

I know you two have a soft spot for unwanted mutts but be careful with this one.

I think there's a real chance if they lose at the Supreme Court this could go under $4. If that happens then its likely they will need a massive rights issue to get their excessive leverage down to a sensible level and fund a replacement facility somewhere else in the Waikato. Remember, Pokeno was 100% debt funded and you can be assured their financiers will be really "impressed" if its rendered effectively worthless !

[Lola]

I know you two have a soft spot for unwanted mutts but be careful with this one. Very hard to get rid of a really bad mange infestation. Even harder when management can't be trusted to apply the necessary remedies.

I think there's a real chance if they lose at the Supreme Court this could go under $4. If that happens then its likely they will need a massive rights issue to get their excessive leverage down to a sensible level and fund a replacement facility somewhere else in the Waikato. Remember, Pokeno was 100% debt funded and you can be assured their financiers will be really "impressed" if its rendered effectively worthless !

Questions should also be asked as what security of supply from farmers had been tied up before this plant was contemplated.
My guess is not much.

[Beagle]

Questions should also be asked as what security of supply from farmers had been tied up before this plant was contemplated.
My guess is not much.

I think they work on the principle of "build it and they will come" The real question is what happens to committed supplier contracts if Pokeno has to shut down and how much does that cost Synlait on top of the replacement capex for a new facility somewhere else ? How long would it take them to find another site and commission the plant, 2 years ? You think those farmers might get annoyed and take their milk somewhere else and never come back ?

[bull....]

I know you two have a soft spot for unwanted mutts but be careful with this one.

I think there's a real chance if they lose at the Supreme Court this could go under $4. If that happens then its likely they will need a massive rights issue to get their excessive leverage down to a sensible level and fund a replacement facility somewhere else in the Waikato. Remember, Pokeno was 100% debt funded and you can be assured their financiers will be really "impressed" if its rendered effectively worthless !

think its almost certain they will lose and have to make compensation payout. the dude will make many millions lol