SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[BlackPeter]

With their profit guesses all over the show you’d have to say management has now lost all credibility

You don’t go from forecasting about $75m npat to maybe $15m in a master on months unless you have no idea what’s going on.

F23 a wipe out ….doubt whether they’ll revisit the F27 ambitions they proudly touted a while ago

Well, they are a proud daughter of ATM, aren't they? They say that the apple does not fall far from the tree ...

[winner69]

In BusinessDesk -

Octagon's chief investment officer, Paul Robertshawe, said the market had been anticipating that Synlait would take longer to complete its financial recovery, especially as China had been closed.

“But this is a material miss to even those expectations,” he told BusinessDesk.

Robertshawe added that the number of causes for the company’s recovery deferral had also been broader than the market was anticipating. “The number of causes is a bit surprising. Some of those things you might have anticipated.”

The highlighted comment a bit telling

[winner69]

Share price still sinking …maybe will reach 2 bucks soon

Half year result next Monday

They didn’t give guidance for half year but seeing full year could be $20m profit I wouldn’t be surprised that half year was break even or maybe a loss.

Be hard to put a good story around that

[BlackPeter]

Share price still sinking …maybe will reach 2 bucks soon

Half year result next Monday

They didn’t give guidance for half year but seeing full year could be $20m profit I wouldn’t be surprised that half year was break even or maybe a loss.

Be hard to put a good story around that

They always can promise a much better 2nd half. Not new, but many managers do that and some shareholders believe it ... and hey, it could be better, couldn't it?

[whatsup]

and to think A2M paid circa $8-00 a few years ago !!

[Ggcc]

and to think A2M paid circa $8-00 a few years ago !!

Maybe A2 might make a complete takeover offer for $6-$8. They would hold enough cash I feel

[winner69]

and to think A2M paid circa $8-00 a few years ago !!

Average cost of the 43 million shares A2 have has been $6.66

Their $289m 'strategic investment' is now worth $115m so $174 under water

Since last December accounts they have had a $38m 'change in value' - just as well these sort of things don't hit the Profit line (shows up in Other Comprehensive Income)

No worries it will all come right one day

[Leemsip]

I worry about the debt load here...
Should be an interesting half year update.

Reckon the share price will get trashed over the next few days... too much doubt for the instos surely. $2 bucka

[Sideshow Bob]

Maybe A2 might make a complete takeover offer for $6-$8. They would hold enough cash I feel

Bright Dairy Holdings (part of Bright Food which also owns 50% of SFF) own 39% of Synlait, so they'd be a key part of any takeover. Our otherwise they might see the opportunity to take a bigger chunk of Synlait cheaply??

However what is the advantage of taking them over? Is running dairy plants part of A2's expertise? They bought into MVM.....do they want to own a shareholding in another dog??

One thing is the A2 have no representation on the board, but 3 from Bright Dairy.

Both major shareholders are reasonably financial - perhaps some sort of capital raise likely? Maybe the opportunity to increase their % stake.

[winner69]

BIG NEW CUSTOMER will save them