SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[K1W1G0LD]

I was mentioning dividend as I thought it was important when I was comparing SML to HNZ for Kiwigold.
Looks as though First NZ Cap are right ,again.!!!
Bit of wind here today.Suppose to have showers,but have not seen them yet.Also suppose to get to 27 today,which will be a hot for the cows too!!!.Next few days are for hot dry conditions.

Theoretical calculations are fine Percy , until they don't work out.
I'm picking SML to have a brighter future than HNZ , and as they have stated they will beat their current forecast . I'm picking substantially and I'm not the only one that is, They are investing heavily in increasing production and their markets are assured ...................yes a lot brighter future than HNZ and its happening a lot faster also due to the enormous demand for NZ dairy products. HNZ are going to take a lot longer to realise their goals and dispose of their troublesome bad loans , they are also in my opinion going to need a major credit re-rating for their shareprice to lift much over NTA.
Dividends are'nt everything , I'm happy with the substantial gains the lifting shareprice is giving , SML is already a success story and I'm more than happy to be on this train.

[percy]

Theoretical calculations are fine Percy , until they don't work out.
I'm picking SML to have a brighter future than HNZ , and as they have stated they will beat their current forecast . I'm picking substantially and I'm not the only one that is, They are investing heavily in increasing production and their markets are assured ...................yes a lot brighter future than HNZ and its happening a lot faster also due to the enormous demand for NZ dairy products. HNZ are going to take a lot longer to realise their goals and dispose of their troublesome bad loans , they are also in my opinion going to need a major credit re-rating for their shareprice to lift much over NTA.
Dividends are'nt everything , I'm happy with the substantial gains the lifting shareprice is giving , SML is already a success story and I'm more than happy to be on this train.

Yes the SML train is moving ahead very quickly.
I however will stick with ratios I am comfortable with.

[goldfish]

Im in both sml and hnz, I cant lose listening to you guys

Great to see it over 400, hopefully it will stay there till they release more info on forecasts early in the new year.

[MAC]

SML have been performing small upgrades in 2013 and have a few more small upgrades planned for 2014, a lactoferrin plant, a blending and canning facility and extra warehousing etc.

Has anyone run some numbers on the likely maximum capacity or constraint of the existing Synlait facility once these wee enhancements are taken up, without further major investment and capital outlay being required in a second facility ?

Obviously, the SML site geographically is large enough for further facility expansion should major capital outlay arise on the radar, but I’m more interested at present in what the existing facility may cap out at ?

[goldfish]

Interesting depth change from two days ago, yesterday a 400k package of shares went through off market seems to have sparked things.
Plus waiting on announcement of forecast which they have said will way above prior.
Announcement on that early in the new year, wish they would hurry up the market is going nuts for good news announcements.
Anyone know when they will put out the forecast?

[000831]

The announcement would be the new warehouse (22500 sqm) and lactoferrin completes by Feb.
The quality lab would be completed by March.
The new blending and Canning would be completed by June.
Synlait expects to outperform financial targets on the basis of a favourable product mix in the future two years.

SP to 8-9 ?

[Citizen Erased]

I've been trying to take a wee nibble at SML for the past three days but the price keeps creeping away from me. Is it a case of "a rising tide lifts all boats" or is the near-term outlook really that good?

I'm not sure which offers better value at this point in time - SML or ATM?

[MAC]

I've been trying to take a wee nibble at SML for the past three days but the price keeps creeping away from me. Is it a case of "a rising tide lifts all boats" or is the near-term outlook really that good?

I'm not sure which offers better value at this point in time - SML or ATM?

Certainly SML has risen fast since the IPO, but I still can’t decide whether to go long or not either, a lot has been priced in already, and I’m not sure at what point capacity constraints will kick in per my previous post, would really appreciate advice from those knowledgeable within the industry whom may have hit the calculator and looked closely at this ?

My feel is that SML will level off at some point, there is only so much growth that can be squeezed out of a single factory even with all the wee planned upgrades.

[K1W1G0LD]

Interesting depth change from two days ago, yesterday a 400k package of shares went through off market seems to have sparked things.
Plus waiting on announcement of forecast which they have said will way above prior.
Announcement on that early in the new year, wish they would hurry up the market is going nuts for good news announcements.
Anyone know when they will put out the forecast?

they stated in their announcement on 11/12/13 that they would be making an update to market early in the new year , whether that's before the half year end on Jan 31st is anyone's guess , anyway not long to wait for that one.

[K1W1G0LD]

I see a brighter furure for Synlait, more diverse product range , ATM are only marketing A2 Milk.