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  1. #4631
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    [QUOTE=SailorRob;1055533]
    Quote Originally Posted by Bikeguy View Post

    At the time you never know if it's a falling knife. Often you blink you miss.
    Yes, seems I have a knack for that as well…have sat back a few times and missed the boat…
    If I manage to scrape out of SML by some miracle it’s off to Milford fund or such for me😅

  2. #4632
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    [QUOTE=Bikeguy;1055536]
    Quote Originally Posted by SailorRob View Post

    Yes, seems I have a knack for that as well…have sat back a few times and missed the boat…
    If I manage to scrape out of SML by some miracle it’s off to Milford fund or such for me😅
    Don't touch it, you'll just underperform. Fees too high, allocation wonky.

    Just buy Berkshire and sit on your arse.

  3. #4633
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    With the signaled CR if Bright were to achieve a 50% threshold could they make a takeover offer on SML?
    If Bright were under writing it, and A2 participated fully, there would be every chance that Bright would pickup another 10% just by all the potential retail not taking part?

    If that did happen does it go to a board vote and then shareholders vote? Bright now have majority in the Board, so what percent of shareholders have to say yes to see a takeover succeed? If this scenario can even happen?

  4. #4634
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SailorRob View Post
    Remember, according to balance you are 100% guaranteed to get all your money back.
    To each their own, SR.

    I stick to my view and you stick with your OCA float (which unfortunately is sinking!).

  5. #4635
    Senior Member moimoi's Avatar
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    The tragedy of possible outcomes overblown for SML imo..

    One could look to offshore for clues.

    The commodity mining industries have recently come to the conclusion that in the current environment it's cheaper to buy operating mines than fund the escalating inflationary capex of permitting, financing, and constructing a new mine. (See recent GOR and BHP failed takeover offers amongst others)

    More than 1 interested bidder for Pokeno me thinks. And any RE agent will tell you....all they need is more than 1 buyer. ;-)

    (Near new, permitted, compliant, high quality construction, with spec'd out refit, committed workforce, located next to local suppliers and export ports, and possibly a distressed sale available @ under replacement cost)

    Underutilised currently but at its core that is only a marketing problem surely.

    A deep pocketed buyer with a long term view, offering and guaranteeing a short term 3 yr fixed price fixed term contract @ $12 KGms, could well solve the marketing problem.

    And potentially, could find the recently Bank defined "over leveraged" Waikato dairy farmer being required to move to SML as a condition of maintaining their existing Bank lending.

    Catastrophic short term-ism could be proven to be alive and well in this whole caper imo.

    GLTA.

  6. #4636
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bikeguy View Post
    With the signaled CR if Bright were to achieve a 50% threshold could they make a takeover offer on SML?
    If Bright were under writing it, and A2 participated fully, there would be every chance that Bright would pickup another 10% just by all the potential retail not taking part?

    If that did happen does it go to a board vote and then shareholders vote? Bright now have majority in the Board, so what percent of shareholders have to say yes to see a takeover succeed? If this scenario can even happen?
    If Bright Dairy does make a takeover offer, shareholders should appreciate it. The market values the bonds at 64 cents. Shareholders rank behind bondholders. How could a shareholder get anything back if bondholders cannot be paid in full?

  7. #4637
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    To each their own, SR.

    I stick to my view and you stick with your OCA float (which unfortunately is sinking!).

    Yep but it wasn't your view, you guaranteed it.

    You said you would get 100% of your money back and the interest.

  8. #4638
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    [QUOTE=moimoi;1055568]The tragedy of possible outcomes overblown for SML imo..

    Appreciate you taking the time to share your thoughts Moimoi, can I ask you what you think, in your opinion is a likely out of all this for SML?
    Cheers

  9. #4639
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    Quote Originally Posted by SailorRob View Post
    Yep but it wasn't your view, you guaranteed it.

    You said you would get 100% of your money back and the interest.
    Getting desperate to put words in my mouth, SailorRob?

    Refer all to my post and read what I wrote.

    You figured out why OCA float is actually a sink yet?

  10. #4640
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post
    If Bright Dairy does make a takeover offer, shareholders should appreciate it. The market values the bonds at 64 cents. Shareholders rank behind bondholders. How could a shareholder get anything back if bondholders cannot be paid in full?
    Correct, if bondholders cannot get paid back, shareholders will get zero.

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