SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[K1W1G0LD]

So given that the allegations are related to the job he was holding before he worked for Bright Food, and given that he does not work for them anymore (resigned 2013) - unlikely, no matter what the verdict, to have any fallout for Synlait.

Amen to that.

[K1W1G0LD]

Dairy prices continue to regain lost ground.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...-regain-ground

[couta1]

Thoughts on the current downtrend anyone? Im looking at taking up a position,cheers

[BlackPeter]

Thoughts on the current downtrend anyone? Im looking at taking up a position,cheers

I guess - lack of news (remember - SML is quite good in the discipline of under-communicating), over capacity (packing line employed to 25%), rather high PE for a company with quite moderate growth - it all takes its toll.

Suppose the current drought in Canterbury (despite the drizzle today) might not help either, given that it might reduce the throughput later this season (like farmers drying up cows earlier and / or reducing stock to avoid food shortages).

Holding a smaller parcel (and wondering why I didn't sell out around 3.40 ...) - and wouldn't call it a "buy" at current prices (but a weak "hold"). Would call them a buy around 2.50 ... 2.60 and likely to add if we get there, but not sure, whether we do.

Longtime IMHO however a good investment, if you get in at the right price.

[couta1]

Thanks BP, also thinking long term there's plenty of upside quite surprised to see it go under $3(Yes I know that wondering why feeling have been there many times)

[couta1]

Thanks 1Leon and Percy for your pm's re this stock much appreciated and nice that you took the time to share your thoughts, I'm trying not to lose money this year, cheers

[K1W1G0LD]

GENERAL: SML: Low impact of drought on Synlait's milk supply 10:55a.m.
SML
16/01/2015 10:55
GENERAL
NOT PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1055 HRS Synlait Milk Limited (NS)

GENERAL: SML: Low impact of drought on Synlait's milk supply

Current dry weather in Canterbury is expected to have little impact on
Synlait Milk's milk supply because almost all Synlait suppliers have reliable
irrigation water access.

Managing Director Dr John Penno said that Synlait is not seeing a drop in
milk production, which remains at budgeted levels.

Dr Penno points out that a benefit of the mid-Canterbury region Synlait
operates in is that nearly all Synlait suppliers are irrigated with reliable
water sources. Those who aren't are largely in high rainfall areas.

Synlait has also recently announced Autumn Premium payments to encourage
suppliers to produce more milk late in the season.

Synlait's Board will review its milk price at their next meeting in late
January and an announcement will be made following that.

Dr Penno said Synlait shareholders will likely want to understand how both
weather conditions and any milk price update impacts the business, therefore
a statement will be released to the NZX following that meeting.


Hopefully this announcement is a sign that Synlait are becoming cognizant of the fact that investors like to be kept informed .

[BlackPeter]

I guess - lack of news (remember - SML is quite good in the discipline of under-communicating), over capacity (packing line employed to 25%), rather high PE for a company with quite moderate growth - it all takes its toll.

Suppose the current drought in Canterbury (despite the drizzle today) might not help either, given that it might reduce the throughput later this season (like farmers drying up cows earlier and / or reducing stock to avoid food shortages).

Holding a smaller parcel (and wondering why I didn't sell out around 3.40 ...) - and wouldn't call it a "buy" at current prices (but a weak "hold"). Would call them a buy around 2.50 ... 2.60 and likely to add if we get there, but not sure, whether we do.

Longtime IMHO however a good investment, if you get in at the right price.

Looks like their Communications Department is reading this thread as well and made a New Years Resolution to better communicate . SML just released a statement that the recent drought will have little impact on SML given that most of their milk suppliers have irrigation or farm in high rainfall areas (West Coast?):

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/dire...spx?id=3789715

Good stuff, Michael, keep the info coming.

[percy]

I notice the announcement was signed off, not by Michael,but Dan Walraven.
This may be the reason for the improvement?

[BlackPeter]

Used the latest spike to sell out with a small loss. Can't really see the SP go much higher given the current PE ... and analyst forecasts are continue to drop as well (12 month target is now $3.20 on ft.com - down from $4.18 in Feb 14 for Feb 15 - yeah right!). While I still think that this company might long term prosper (whatever this means in the case of SML) - I see currently lots of other opportunities with better growth prospects, a better communication strategy and better AGM catering . Looking at the trend ... while I might have sold out around the bottom (only time will tell) do I see currently more reasons for the SP to continue the fall than for the trend to change.

Might be back if the SP drops to IPO levels ... though only time will tell, whether it will.

This obviously means that you will need to find this year somebody else to take the AGM minutes ... or just have to rely on the communications manager (bye Michael, I will miss your exciting AGM reports and frequent announcements ...) and / or the Press.