Are we headed for sub $9.00 certainly looks like it atm.
Although I think it should happen..... today is one of those days that excluding Skycity, there are low number of transactions and it seems like panic selling. I would not read too much into todays trading.
Horrid red down arrow day for me today - except also for PLX which I happily hold. Still happy not holding SML - though a re-entry might be on the cards.
Even if it got down to $8 I would not be tempted for all the reasons outlined in my previous posts. Bad management will very easily wreck what could otherwise be a good company. I think they have massive problems with Pokeno and the consequential contractual risk regarding supply arrangements both input and output could be quite significant. Then there's the new PC culture of the company...
Last edited by Beagle; 24-05-2019 at 01:30 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Senior management a mix of old timers and several who have joined the Team in last year or so. (BP said experienced and successful)
CEO — whatever way you look at it it would appear what he’s been in charge off have not been a roaring success. I have a theory that some leaders (CEOs) are not lucky or have good fortune favour them in their careers even though they may not be fantastic managers and as such the companies they lead generally tend to disappoint. (Works the other way as well as some CEOs always seem lucky)
How ‘lucky’ the newish headhunted CEO is will determine Synlaits fortunes.
From a few months ago
Obviously Leon is not one of the ‘lucky’ ones
Last edited by winner69; 24-05-2019 at 03:52 PM.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
Bookvalue $2.62 ....maybe $4.00 at best is fair price for a capital intensive low margin producer (of a commodity product). Discounted Cash Flow with outrageous growth assumptions gives me about $6.50
The IP (registrations) are seen as valuable but latest announcement even puts that theory in doubt.
This from February ....essentially repeating earlier thoughts.
Maybe my FA of this might come to fruition
Rubbished at the time because Synlait was a great company I was told ......maybe just as good as A2. Justified the outrageous PE because growth was a given.
Percy reminds me at times to do your own research and have faith in it.
Has been a great trading stock though.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
This from February ....essentially repeating earlier thoughts.
Maybe my FA of this might come to fruition
Rubbished at the time because Synlait was a great company I was told ......maybe just as good as A2. Justified the outrageous PE because growth was a given.
Percy reminds me at times to do your own research and have faith in it.
Has been a great trading stock though.
In the defence of those who were formerly bullish, (myself included), shareholders have been victims of a significant amount of material information which was deliberately concealed by the company, probably under the auspices of it being commercially sensitive. Now some of the skeletons are laid bare for all to examine I think its perfectly reasonable that people feel they're entitled to take a considerably different view. Not beyond the bounds of possibility you might get your $6.50 mate and I might reconsider my position again if we get to that price point depending upon how inept management are between now and then and how many more skeletons are yet to come out of the closet and the extent of actual and consequential damages.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
Today GS they see the strong shipment data leaving Lyttelton as overall trend supportive of atm & sml -key-risks:weaker volume -project execution- negative regulatory risk............... BUY-rated TP NZ$11.60 and NZ$16.50
While I am disappointed believe common sense will prevail so have no intentions of selling ANY
Today GS they see the strong shipment data leaving Lyttelton as overall trend supportive of atm & sml -key-risks:weaker volume -project execution- negative regulatory risk............... BUY-rated TP NZ$11.60 and NZ$16.50
While I am disappointed believe common sense will prevail so have no intentions of selling ANY
I think that we established before that there is no way to deduct ATM and SML's share of the Lyttelton shipping data. There are other players in the same sandpit and the data don't say whether this is SML A2 IF or SML A1 IF or Fonterra IF they are shipping.
And obviously - you would not see any impact of the Pokeno cockup on the Lyttelton shipping data.
So - maybe you should be careful what you are wishing for if you hope that common sense prevails AND the SP stays up ;
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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