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  1. #2171
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Appears as if the ‘margin squeeze’ wasn’t as disasterous as the initial reaction from suggested. Some guy on another forum crunched some numbers and reckons that IF GM/Mt is down only 1.25%. Maybe A2 didn’t screw them as much as some made out.

    Synlait might be pretty good at prettying up their presentations but I think they could improve a lot in presenting financial data in a more understanding way. Numbers they put in are all over the place and they should preempt what punters see as ‘issues’ and explain these.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #2172
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    if people had studied stock price behaviour from some important past announcements you will have noticed it sells off heavy and then rebounds. played out just like last big sell off.

    anyway i still think metrics are rediculous for a manufacturerer
    one step ahead of the herd

  3. #2173
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    I shouldn’t be mean to you and repost something from a week ago ... but one not so good half year report and you’ve gone full circle.

    Behind the numbers (rather obtuse) most things are on track - selling more stuff and building things to timetable. Agree that profit a bit disappointing but Synlait performance always weighted to second half of year. No real reason to stop believing the story and the bright prospects ahead.

    Almost like Oceania - behind the numbers most things are on track - selling more stuff and building things to timetable. Agree that a bit disappointing but Oceania performance always weighted to second half of year. No real reason to stop believing the story and the bright prospects ahead.

    Both Synlait and Oceania reports were not so good ....but I remain a patient ‘puss’ ....with both ...and getting plenty of milk, but prefer cream
    1. The disingenuous manner in which SML concealed the margin reduction breeched trust with minority shareholders.
    2. This has implications for this years profit and in perpetuity going forward and has a major impact on my growth assumptions.
    3. I do not accept the margin reduction posted in another forum, it does not look right at all to me.
    4. $37m is a very very poor result no matter how you slice and dice it
    5. The overt manner in which the new CEO is chasing being politically correct concerns me
    6. Synlait performance was strongly weighted to the first half last year
    7. Ice cold trading relations with China could potentially see new product approvals on ice for years.
    8. Mega capex won't look so shiny if #7 happens.
    9. Growth will be lower and a lot slower than previously thought and doesn't take much in the way of lower growth to dramatically change DCF valuations but you already know that...

    An AWFUL LOT has changed in a week and not just with Synlait...
    Last edited by Beagle; 22-03-2019 at 03:04 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #2174
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cymonger View Post


    This week has proved how irrational and strange the market can really be sometimes.
    You're wrong with that one mate , its not sometimes - it is always strange and (seemingly) irrational.

    I'm now down to 10% (of equity portfilio) on this one, taking the opportunity to further reduce this afternoon. Beagle has summed up well, that a lot has changed
    Last edited by peat; 22-03-2019 at 04:13 PM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  5. #2175
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    if people had studied stock price behaviour from some important past announcements you will have noticed it sells off heavy and then rebounds. played out just like last big sell off.

    anyway i still think metrics are rediculous for a manufacturerer
    If you really wanted to help other forum members you would have put this post up on results morning rather than the pure downramping ones you put up.

  6. #2176
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    If you really wanted to help other forum members you would have put this post up on results morning rather than the pure downramping ones you put up.
    yea right i said it was rediculous values for this company and still do. what if i posted what it did and it kept going down people would still moan .... yea never win no matter what lol
    Last edited by bull....; 22-03-2019 at 04:47 PM.
    one step ahead of the herd

  7. #2177
    Senior Member hardt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    1. The disingenuous manner in which SML concealed the margin reduction breeched trust with minority shareholders.
    2. This has implications for this years profit and in perpetuity going forward and has a major impact on my growth assumptions.
    3. I do not accept the margin reduction posted in another forum, it does not look right at all to me.
    4. $37m is a very very poor result no matter how you slice and dice it
    5. The overt manner in which the new CEO is chasing being politically correct concerns me
    6. Synlait performance was strongly weighted to the first half last year
    7. Ice cold trading relations with China could potentially see new product approvals on ice for years.
    8. Mega capex won't look so shiny if #7 happens.
    9. Growth will be lower and a lot slower than previously thought and doesn't take much in the way of lower growth to dramatically change DCF valuations but you already know that...

    An AWFUL LOT has changed in a week and not just with Synlait...
    NPAT was 15% higher than 2H18, the marginal pressure was clear to see at FY18 with 74m NPAT following 1H18 of 42m.


    1H18 GP per MT 1,400 (up from 800 PCP)
    2H18 GP per MT 1,195
    1H19 GP per MT 1,164


    They had signaled the outlier of 1H18 last year
    Last edited by hardt; 24-03-2019 at 03:17 PM.

  8. #2178
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    Quote Originally Posted by hardt View Post
    NPAT was 15% higher than 2H18, the marginal pressure was clear to see at FY18 with 74m NPAT following 1H18 of 42m.


    1H18 GP per MT 1,400 (up from 800 PCP)
    2H18 GP per MT 1,195
    1H19 GP per MT 1,164


    They had signaled the outlier of 1H18 last year
    what is GP per MT?

  9. #2179
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nzsharetrade View Post
    what is GP per MT?
    Gross Profit per Metric Ton (Tonne)
    Last edited by winner69; 25-03-2019 at 09:32 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #2180
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Gross Profit per Metric Ton (Tonne)

    Thank you.

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