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  1. #1881
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    But ATM's brand relies on Synlait having Chinese certified boxes of stainless steel which I'm not at all sure are easy to replicate. I also seem to recall some contractor going under which could well have delayed the making of those easy to replicate stainless steel boxes but Synlaits management had done a smart thing and werent affected (or if so would be compensated)

    Obviously the relationship between these two companies is symbiotic but my view is that ATM needs Synlait more than the other way round.
    I can see the day when ATM makes a 1:1 scrip based takeover. Just a matter of time I reckon.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #1882
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    Its cows that produce A2.
    Obviously. I wasn't talking about goats although I think they all produce A2

  3. #1883
    Legend peat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by freddagg View Post
    About half the milk produced in NZ is A2. Just a matter of separating from A1, not that hard
    not that hard? From what I understand it requires separation at every stage of the farming and milking process.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  4. #1884
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    But ATM's brand relies on Synlait having Chinese certified boxes of stainless steel which I'm not at all sure are easy to replicate. I also seem to recall some contractor going under which could well have delayed the making of those easy to replicate stainless steel boxes but Synlaits management had done a smart thing and werent affected (or if so would be compensated)

    Obviously the relationship between these two companies is symbiotic but my view is that ATM needs Synlait more than the other way round.
    No doubt Synlait will continue to do well. It is just - to justify the current SP you need to plan for a large amount of future growth ... and this is more difficult to implement with a bricks, mortar and stainless steel company - it is just not that scalable.

    I am sure the current factories will be fine and deliver for a long time ... but are they really worth a PE of above 16?
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 06-02-2019 at 09:07 AM. Reason: finger trouble ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  5. #1885
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    No doubt Synlait will continue to do well. It is just - to justify the current SP you need to plan for a large amount of future growth ... and this is more difficult to implement with a bricks, mortar and stainless steel company - it is just not that scalable.

    I am sure the current factories will be fine and deliver for a long time ... but are they really worth a PE of above 16?
    In this article https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12195289 posted about a week or so ago, Graeme Milne says:

    "Milne told the market Synlait should post a "substantial" increase in profit for the 2019 financial year but that the scale of the rise won't be in the same league as last year's 89 per cent."

    So on a forward PE based on the 2019 FY, they might be much better. If say 50% increase, then their PE might come down to around 11. They are about halfway through the full year now, so would have a good guide and probably enough forward sales/orders on the books. Also more stainless coming on stream in Pokeno, but expected still some time away, especially before it makes an impact on profitability.

    Scalable is a tricky one though, isn't it. Look at Tatua, stuck to its knitting and not gone along the volume growth path, which has served shareholders well to date. But if they were the same size as Fonterra, then no doubt would be a different story.


  6. #1886
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    Looks like good value for a growth stock to me with a clearly articulated and defined growth path across multiple products both with ATM and others.
    Better differentiated than ATM with its products = lower risk in my book and in terms of forward metrics it looks significantly more compelling and then there's the best bit of all, no herd licker involvement lol
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  7. #1887
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    This one is sneaking up nicely in $9.33 AU. Guess we will nice a nice price tomorrow in NZ

  8. #1888
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ggcc View Post
    This one is sneaking up nicely in $9.33 AU. Guess we will nice a nice price tomorrow in NZ

    $9.56 now after hitting $9.60

    6.8% so far today.

  9. #1889
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    Quote Originally Posted by 777 View Post
    $9.56 now after hitting $9.60

    6.8% so far today.
    Is this the highest intraday jump? 6.8% awesome!

  10. #1890
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    Quote Originally Posted by carrom74 View Post
    Is this the highest intraday jump? 6.8% awesome!
    Looking forward to tomorrow but it all depends on what USA (Trump) do tomorrow which will be their today........ quite the conundrum

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