sharetrader
Page 216 of 431 FirstFirst ... 116166206212213214215216217218219220226266316 ... LastLast
Results 2,151 to 2,160 of 4304
  1. #2151
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    9,497

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    As a matter of interest what percentage of Synlait sales are to A2
    Percentage of sales is immaterial - and I don't know.

    However - (from memory) at last FY 80% of their revenue came from A2 infant formula, and this is obviously all going through A2.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  2. #2152
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand.
    Posts
    6,502

    Default

    Might also be worth noting that back in January SML dropped their milk forecast piece 50 cents to $6.25 a kg which was still on top of Fonterras range. But after recent increases in milk prices Fonterra could now be looking at a range from $6.30 - $6.60

  3. #2153
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Posts
    485

    Default

    Just touched $10 in ASX... looks oversold...

  4. #2154
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,738

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Percentage of sales is immaterial - and I don't know.

    However - (from memory) at last FY 80% of their revenue came from A2 infant formula, and this is obviously all going through A2.
    Maybe A2 as a customer not as material as made out. Hope everybody gas screwed Synlait on price.

    From Interim -

    Revenues of approximately 64% are derived from the top three external customers (31 January 2018: 68%, 31 July 2018: 69%
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #2155
    Outside thinking.
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    2,563

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Agreed. The substantial rise in Inventory at Synlait at a time when ATM has been going gangbusters suggests something is wrong here with sales and the extent of the loss of margin is even more shocking in my opinion. If ATM can "milk them" to that extent once you can bet your last dollar they'll come back to milk them again in the future.
    Perhaps the stock is/was being held pending Chinese market registration of SML's own label which we understand has been delayed?

    Beagle I gather you now out of SML? How did your investment work out?

  6. #2156
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Christchurch, New Zealand.
    Posts
    6,502

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    Perhaps the stock is/was being held pending Chinese market registration of SML's own label which we understand has been delayed?

    Beagle I gather you now out of SML? How did your investment work out?
    It is being held for forecast increased sales in H2 ("Finished goods inventories at $188.1m (44,344 MT) have increased significantly from comparative periods (January 2018:$142.7m,35,040 MT; July 2018: $122.6m, 26,726 MT). The increase is primarily due to increased volumes of canned infant formula forecast tobe sold in the second half of FY19, and a strong milk production season which has exceeded expectations."

    While I understand this, I am uncomfortable with the holding. Essentially SML is carrying all the inventory risk. ATM (as an example of a customer) does not have to carry the risk of holding inventory which is a great move by ATM.

    Also finished goods has a limited shelf life. The burden of a slower future market falls on SML. I would have been looking for more effort put into shifting inventory onto the distribution network.

  7. #2157
    Outside thinking.
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    2,563

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    .... Essentially SML is carrying all the inventory risk. ATM (as an example of a customer) does not have to carry the risk of holding inventory which is a great move by ATM.
    Thanks MM. I Agree. A couple of years ago BAL-ASX shares plummeted from approx $A13.00 to $4.00 on China inventory concerns, ATM was relatively unscathed and I recall ATM saying they had negotiated a much better/different deal.

  8. #2158
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    Perhaps the stock is/was being held pending Chinese market registration of SML's own label which we understand has been delayed?

    Beagle I gather you now out of SML? How did your investment work out?
    Worked out okay mate but I want to shift gears towards stocks that will pay me a regular dividend. $37m is just plain ugly no matter how you slice and dice this and margin compression from the ATM contract they just told us about 8 months after the fact, (disingenuous concealment), will affect profitability going forward.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #2159
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,738

    Default

    EBITDA F18 ~$138m and I reckon ~$280m in F21

    Doubling EBITDA in next three years is tremendous stuff

    Will see share price get to $15 to $20
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #2160
    Legend peat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    Whanganui, New Zealand.
    Posts
    6,435

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Worked out okay mate but I want to shift gears towards stocks that will pay me a regular dividend. $37m is just plain ugly no matter how you slice and dice this and margin compression from the ATM contract they just told us about 8 months after the fact, (disingenuous concealment), will affect profitability going forward.
    yes these are the real concerns aren't they, as well there probably should've been an update prior to the actual announcement which kind of points to a lack of management trustworthiness

    I'm pondering exiting...... would be good to break even (average price 10.67 though - will we get there? )
    i was very late to this party
    Last edited by peat; 22-03-2019 at 11:37 AM. Reason: price moving fast so gave fixed reference point cf ref to current mkt price
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •