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  1. #2201
    Herbacious
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    Does this take into account emissions trading costs? If I remember rightly the cost is $25 per 2 tonnes of CO2. And that's likely to get more expensive over the coming years as opposed to cheaper.

  2. #2202
    percy
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    A good earner for which ever power company that supplies the power for it.
    Hope it is either GNE or MEL.
    Last edited by percy; 26-03-2019 at 10:46 AM.

  3. #2203
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    A good earner for which ever power company that supplies the power for it.
    Hope it is either GNE or MEL.
    Yes…..hope they are not using coal to generate the electricity. That wouldn't be very efficient.

  4. #2204
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    Quote Originally Posted by RTM View Post
    Yes…..hope they are not using coal to generate the electricity. That wouldn't be very efficient.
    SML only partially committed to this green thing. Up north they choose a greenfield site with inadequate electrical infrastructure. So instead up their they will burn gas.

  5. #2205
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    GS

    Positive IMF trends continue from Lyttelton in Feb-19

    Consistent with GS view for a stronger 2H in consumer packaged volume for SM1.AX - we forecast a 59% 2H volume skew.

  6. #2206
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dreamcatcher View Post
    GS

    Positive IMF trends continue from Lyttelton in Feb-19

    Consistent with GS view for a stronger 2H in consumer packaged volume for SM1.AX - we forecast a 59% 2H volume skew.
    Not so sure about the meaningfulness of these Lyttleton numbers. Didn't they predict an amzing 1HY as well? What happened to that?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  7. #2207
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Not so sure about the meaningfulness of these Lyttleton numbers. Didn't they predict an amzing 1HY as well? What happened to that?
    This post has the volumes and the port was going gangbusters Year on Year but somehow SML didnt seem to profit well

    https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...imited/page846

  8. #2208
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Not so sure about the meaningfulness of these Lyttleton numbers. Didn't they predict an amzing 1HY as well? What happened to that?
    The main poster who keeps track of the stats in a nice table predicted they would sell 22750 MT consumer packaged IF in 1H19, the actual number was 17,684 MT so quite a significant miss.

  9. #2209
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Not so sure about the meaningfulness of these Lyttleton numbers. Didn't they predict an amzing 1HY as well? What happened to that?
    You are correct the miss was suggested because of lower 1H19 consumer packaged finished IF volumes, and lower than expected gross margins in SM1’s powders and creams. However, GS see both of these areas of weakness as resulting from variations in timing in SM1’s sales volumes resulting from orders from its key customers, particularly A2M

    Lyttelton numbers are more an indication of overall trends, rather than a proxy for forecasts. However, GS see the overall trend as provided by today’s export data as largely supportive of their forecasts for SM1 and A2M. By export market, the greatest increase was in export volumes to China, which totaled 1.5k MT, +215% vs Jan-19

    Probably have a summary of full report somewhere tomorrow.

  10. #2210
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    Quote Originally Posted by dreamcatcher View Post
    You are correct the miss was suggested because of lower 1H19 consumer packaged finished IF volumes, and lower than expected gross margins in SM1’s powders and creams. However, GS see both of these areas of weakness as resulting from variations in timing in SM1’s sales volumes resulting from orders from its key customers, particularly A2M

    Lyttelton numbers are more an indication of overall trends, rather than a proxy for forecasts. However, GS see the overall trend as provided by today’s export data as largely supportive of their forecasts for SM1 and A2M. By export market, the greatest increase was in export volumes to China, which totaled 1.5k MT, +215% vs Jan-19

    Probably have a summary of full report somewhere tomorrow.
    Interestingly we saw significant inventory build at both ATM and SML. I think this undermines the plausibility of anyone saying that 2H sales will be significantly higher than 1H...maybe a little higher if everything works out okay.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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