SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[dreamcatcher]

We have no idea of sml or a2 plans and use these port records to gauge some guesses on progress. Major Chinese event dates are 618, 11/11, 12/12 and Chinese NY in Feb or even if they will open new markets for IF. But do know that new factory will be ready mid year increasing production volume.

My understanding of GS 59% 2H volume skew means 1H was 41% ?

Years back I remember three months of manufacturing orders for a March delivery to have large customer phoning to delay delivery till April/May sometimes events are out of your control.

[Leftfield]

Interestingly we saw significant inventory build at both ATM and SML. I think this undermines the plausibility of anyone saying that 2H sales will be significantly higher than 1H...maybe a little higher if everything works out okay.

A picture says a thousand words...... (IF export figs ex Lyttelton.)

Attachment 10425

DYOR

[minimoke]

A picture says a thousand words...... (IF export figs ex Lyttelton.)

Attachment 10425

DYOR

And heres another picture that tells a clearer story. Thats they are selling more and making less NPAT

[Beagle]

Yes and then there the $30+m of stock written down to estimated net realisable value, (they are struggling to sell this even at cost) Accounting convention is the lower of cost of net realisable value. I call B.S. on G.S's theory of 41:59% 1H to 2H split based on the significant inventory build both within SML and also ATM. Such a thing does not look plausible.

Here's where the analysts see it with an average 12 month price target of $10.41 https://www.marketscreener.com/SYNLA...761/consensus/

Quite a range of opinion with a high of $12.75 and a low of $7.95 which according to one on here is the well regarded analyst at FCNZ.

[winner69]

G

And heres another picture that tells a clearer story. Thats they are selling more and making less NPAT

Yes selling more and making less .....and that’s probably the reason why the share price of the likes of Oceania is struggling

[Beagle]

G

Yes selling more and making less .....and that’s probably the reason why the share price of the likes of Oceania is struggling

Got to build then and get council sign off before contracts go unconditional. On track but how many sales this financial year is an open question.

[Leftfield]

MM - Beagle's post #2210 refers to BOTH ATM and SML having inventory build issues..... I was merely pointing out that his inventory views might not be correct for ATM.

The IF export figs show a significant increase in Feb 2019. Likely this will benefit ATM more than SML because of the revised margins negotiated by ATM (plus there will also be some benefit to SML)

Today on HC there is also another report out from Citi group saying ATM's Feb IF sales are up over 90% on pp. (not sure where they get their data from.)

(Disc - hold ATM not SML so DYOR.)

[winner69]

Got to build then and get council sign off before contracts go unconditional. On track but how many sales this financial year is an open question.

Not talking about building ...actual reported sales .....sold 52 more units and profit hardly moved

[winner69]

Yes and then there the $30+m of stock written down to estimated net realisable value, (they are struggling to sell this even at cost) Accounting convention is the lower of cost of net realisable value.".....l

Jeez that’s a lot of stock no one wants .........seems like Synlait have a lot in common with Comvita .....building stock and delusional leaders .....wonder what their forecasting is like

[BlackPeter]

Jeez that’s a lot of stock no one wants .........seems like Synlait have a lot in common with Comvita .....building stock and delusional leaders .....wonder what their forecasting is like

Ouch ... you mean SML is close behind Comvita? They cracked the $10 SP at some stage as well and look where they are now ;