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  1. #2111
    Legend minimoke's Avatar
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    I have a sell order in play for my total holding and waiting for someone to match my offer.

    I am continually frustrated by all this corporate "diversity" bvllsh1t". That along with a failure to manage margins and costs as well as being conservative with alerting the market to how dire this current position was mean I have to put my money where my mouth is. I no longer hold the love.

  2. #2112
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    I believe it is oversold for now as people are transferring their money from SML to ATM. Just a hunch as A2 share price doing ok

  3. #2113
    Following the momo
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    It's all been covered here already, but I'm also disappointed with the board and management. There should have been an update to the market before now that foreshadowed a HY earnings drop of 9-10% (this amount is material and would fall into the continuous disclosure requirements of the listing rules).

    I would expect all brokers analysis to downgrade their assessment of SML and a re-rate will be forthcoming. I wouldn't be surprised to see a new 2 year lows hit in the months ahead either.

    Disc: Sold all today

    Note: I would guess that TRA and SKT are happy that they are not the only boards/management on the ST community's sh*t list
    Last edited by McGinty; 20-03-2019 at 04:01 PM.

  4. #2114
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I must say I really do like your approach as clearly articulated in that post your referenced. Makes compelling common sense.
    Got to say that this one hurts as I had high hopes for future growth and I feel that management have been more than a little economical with the truth...actually quite disingenuous. In my late 50's I make no secret of the fact that I'm tired of counting beans and looking to add more retirement to the term semi retired so a further tilt in my portfolio towards dependable dividend payers is where I'm headed. What's dependable and who can you trust...that's the $64,000 question isn't it !
    Its all so easy in hindsight. Obvious now that ATM would squeeze them on price. What was I thinking ? Maybe we all need a little more Bull... from time to time.

  5. #2115
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RTM View Post
    Its all so easy in hindsight. Obvious now that ATM would squeeze them on price. What was I thinking ? Maybe we all need a little more Bull... from time to time.
    No, its clearly a symbiotic relationship and they need each other just as much. One can only assume the stake ATM has in SML gave them a competitive advantage in negotiations or was it that the board of SML are simply weak ? No, please don't encourage him, he doesn't need it.
    The new CEO comes from Fonterror...probably just a very ordinary player is a terribly company. I am sorry but I think the board have called his appointment wrong.
    He wasted no time whatsoever climbing right onto the very top of the diversity and cultural sensitivity bandwagon as soon as he was appointed as though this was his top priority and the most urgent area of reform needed.

    The clue we overlooked factoring in properly was the culture of where he came from. Some famous person once said "Man is a product of his environment"
    Last edited by Beagle; 20-03-2019 at 03:57 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #2116
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by McGinty View Post
    It's all been covered here already, but I'm also disappointed with the board and management. There should have been an update to the market before now that foreshadowed a HY earnings drop of 9-10% (this amount is material and would fall into the continuous disclosure requirements of the listing rules).

    I would expect all brokers analysis to downgrade their assessment of SML and a re-rate will be forthcoming. I wouldn't be surprised to see a new 2 year lows hit in the months ahead either.

    Disc: Sold all today

    Note: I would guess the TRA and SKT are happy that they are not the only boards/management on the ST community's sh*t list
    TRA board and management have remained on my "Gold Star" high conviction list.
    SKT have not.
    SML I sold out when I realised it would be years before they ever paid a dividend.
    Last edited by percy; 20-03-2019 at 03:55 PM.

  7. #2117
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    Anyway you put it it's a very disappointing result and the forecast is very vague. Not the same pace of growth? Well that was obvious, but what sort of growth are they talking - 5%?

    The risk profile and lower growth rates just doesn't warrant the valuation imo. I'm surprised it hasn't fallen lower considering it was $10 a month ago

  8. #2118
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeremyALD View Post
    Anyway you put it it's a very disappointing result and the forecast is very vague. Not the same pace of growth? Well that was obvious, but what sort of growth are they talking - 5%?

    The risk profile and lower growth rates just doesn't warrant the valuation imo. I'm surprised it hasn't fallen lower considering it was $10 a month ago
    Things take time, not everybody is sitting all the day at the computer monitoring AND analysing the stock announcements.

    Just wait for the analysts changing their recommendations.

    Oops - just noticed that SML was already prior to the results only on HOLD with a target price of $9.73. Thats what my spreadsheet (updated three days ago) says. There must have been a reason I sold prior to the results . Better nobody complain anymore about the analysts - sometimes these guys and gals are performing plain magic;

    Anyway, give it two days or three and I am sure recommendations and target prices will be lower. Give it another couple of days for the brokers to mail out their new analysis - and then watch the share price dropping.

    Just make sure you take your foot away from where the SP is touching the ground - otherwise you might get hurt ...
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 20-03-2019 at 04:56 PM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  9. #2119
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    Give it time, more bad news to come.

  10. #2120
    Membaa
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raz View Post
    Give it time, more bad news to come.
    Maybe, I don't have those insights to be certain about it though. Some believe bad news begets more bad news and therefore that's enough for them to bail on the first sign of bad news. I don't think it's necessarily reliably correlated though, certainly a possibility but not a probability.

    What I see from the TA is a highly reactionary one-day response to perceived bad news and the uncertainty that surrounds that as the SP traded in a wide range and settled in the middle .. or maybe it's not 'bad' news per se, but news that was not expected!

    Various people here have broadcast their concerns that material information appears to have been withheld, or not made obvious in disclosures. SML would be considered naive, or worse negligent, to have failed to realise what the results represent a material divergence from guidance or worse than that, a considered denial of their responsibility for disclosure. Surely not.

    I give them the benefit of the doubt, that they just f'd up this time but the business is still solid and they're unlikely to make the same stupid mistake again anytime soon. Further, some suggest that the failure to disclose prior has been glossed over by soft feel good messaging in their reporting. That would no doubt concern shareholders as we have seen even in our relatively small community, resulting in a concerted exodus today.

    If nothing else, I think ST's community has a learned response to 'react then think' which is sometimes more important than 'think then react'. A whole lot of people bailed today and took profits that might not be there tomorrow or the next day. Bravo to them, if the hypothesis holds that SML got way overpriced and they withheld information from us and the SP just goes lower and lower.

    It's a severe blow to the slow march up from $8.05 lows late last year, or is it? One day has ruined only a few short months of SP appreciation. But it's not a calamity, far from it. A TA might notice that the price range fits very closely between the 100MA and the 50MA, like some magic forces that bounded the trading range.

    Personally I'm not that worried, and didn't react today because of it, unless the SP decided to drop to or below $8 which I see as solid support. Then I'd decide whether to quit my investment or buy into the SP weakness. One might consider that SML in the long haul have a massively growing pipeline for their product and any SP weakness for whatever reason doesn't counter the investment in growing production capacity to meet the growing demand. It may even be an opportunity to buy SML while the buying is good, and hold for the long game.

    Intriguing. Days like this I enjoy as I learn how fickle the market is and how effective patience can be.

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