SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[Beagle]

They are behind the 8 ball at the half way mark. Margins being squeezed. Expenses going up. I am not so confident.

But, in taking a breath I have put my money in as a long term hold. I am currently well up so well positioned to take a beating today.

The road to future prosperity is seldom wide, smooth and without bumps along the way. I will probably be telling myself that all day lol

[Balance]

Currently trading on a historical PER of 27 times.

We may see re-appraisal of growth prospects down to 20X - 22X in the next few days - $8.36 to $9.20.

As my investment mentor used to tell me, don't wait for others to move or follow when facing a downgrade - move fast and move first!

[sb9]

While our sales volumes of fully finished infant formula were slightly ahead of HY18, these were delivered at lower margins. This is a result of the new pricing agreement entered into with The a2 Milk Company™ last July, as well as not having the benefit of the higher margin sales to our China based customers that we enjoyed in HY18. These brands are awaiting State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) registration.

Hmmm...didn't expect that would happen when i did numbers. Obviously was way off the mark.

[LAC]

Not impressed at all, was sooo close to dipping my toes into this one but ended up with a few more OCA instead. Was only looking at it to diversify the portfolio a little but best to just stick with what I know, the milk industry isnt for me "yet"

[777]

The big over reaction on the market about to take place on a measly 20000 odd shares.

[minimoke]

$9.85 in pre-open. We are going to get smashed today!

[bull....]

pe silly for a manufacturer wise people should have taken profit before result in knowledge that a2 screwed them on price

[oldtech]

Ouch! Down 144 ...

[Balance]

The big over reaction on the market about to take place on a measly 20000 odd shares.

Wait for ASX to open.

That's when the real damage will be done, or undone.

[BlackPeter]

Ah well - I had a bad feeling when the new CEO introduced during last years AGM this new colour schema. Is it just me getting goosebumps with that much pink? I guess we are here still selling milk, aren't we? Prefer as well black numbers instead of soft red-ish (sorry, is this pink?) bars.

Net debt as high as it ever was and predicted to increase. Lets hope interest rates stay low - shall we?

ASMLdebt.PNG

Ah yes - and the gross profit trend dows not really look encouraging. Sure - one number does not make a trend and two is still a bit light, but now with three HY results it does look like an established downtrend:

ASMLGP.PNG

Appologies for the colour schema - I know it looks terrible, but I don't know how to get rid of this ugly pink ...