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  1. #2161
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    I’m with you winner, however I share others frustration on this one and think it’ll go sideways until well into F20. Still a lot of uncertainty around China registration for other IF brands and it will be interesting to see how this impacts F19 full year.

  2. #2162
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    EBITDA F18 ~$138m and I reckon ~$280m in F21

    Doubling EBITDA in next three years is tremendous stuff

    Will see share price get to $15 to $20
    Yeap and Turners are going back to $3.80 any day now...is it too early for a Tui ?
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  3. #2163
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    This little spurt a bit higher is just the very start in my opinion and this remains compelling value for a high growth stock. I think we should easily eclipse $15 within 2 years...remember the dog barked it first. Patient pups will be getting a lot of milk.
    I shouldn’t be mean to you and repost something from a week ago ... but one not so good half year report and you’ve gone full circle.

    Behind the numbers (rather obtuse) most things are on track - selling more stuff and building things to timetable. Agree that profit a bit disappointing but Synlait performance always weighted to second half of year. No real reason to stop believing the story and the bright prospects ahead.

    Almost like Oceania - behind the numbers most things are on track - selling more stuff and building things to timetable. Agree that a bit disappointing but Oceania performance always weighted to second half of year. No real reason to stop believing the story and the bright prospects ahead.

    Both Synlait and Oceania reports were not so good ....but I remain a patient ‘puss’ ....with both ...and getting plenty of milk, but prefer cream
    Last edited by winner69; 22-03-2019 at 11:40 AM.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  4. #2164
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    Thanks all for sharing your thoughts on SML.... there is a lot of learning in this one for us all.

    Its interesting to reflect on the 'capital light' ethos of ATM and the 'capital heavy' ethos implicit in SML.

    Yesterday I re-read parts of "The Zulu Principle' by Jim Slater...... here's what he says "Avoid companies that are capital intensive and are always requiring more money for new machinery.......some companies simply eat cash, whereas others spit it out."

    I'm not saying 'avoid SML' and I appreciate this quote is not aimed at SML, however there is some learning here for those with open minds.

    GLH.

  5. #2165
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post

    Almost like Oceania - behind the numbers most things are on track - selling more stuff and building things to timetable.
    But the margins doesn't seem to be. No point at all in building plant and selling more stuff if you aren't making money. (With more plant you have to make even more margin to carry the capital costs)

  6. #2166
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by minimoke View Post
    But the margins doesn't seem to be. No point at all in building plant and selling more stuff if you aren't making money. (With more plant you have to make even more margin to carry the capital costs)
    Oceania sold 52 more units and made LESS profit in H1 ......no point in building more stuff if you don’t make more money
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  7. #2167
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    Thanks all for sharing your thoughts on SML.... there is a lot of learning in this one for us all.

    Its interesting to reflect on the 'capital light' ethos of ATM and the 'capital heavy' ethos implicit in SML.

    Yesterday I re-read parts of "The Zulu Principle' by Jim Slater...... here's what he says "Avoid companies that are capital intensive and are always requiring more money for new machinery.......some companies simply eat cash, whereas others spit it out."

    I'm not saying 'avoid SML' and I appreciate this quote is not aimed at SML, however there is some learning here for those with open minds.

    GLH.
    Generally good advice from that guy Slater.

    That’s why the likes of SML, THL and others should never command high multiples. But then again the likes of FPH are reasonably capital intensive but it’s seem to hinder their share price.
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #2168
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Brutal price reaction...a bit tough I would have thought.
    Your thought was right as it turns out, always lessons to learn for us all with the market.

  9. #2169
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Yeap and Turners are going back to $3.80 any day now...is it too early for a Tui ?
    Never to early for a Tui but keep some skin in this one as I am sure you will be better rewarded then Turners

  10. #2170
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Your thought was right as it turns out, always lessons to learn for us all with the market.
    Seems like you are correct Beagle ... SP dropped from $11.28 on Tuesday to $9.30 on Wednesday, now back up to $10.49.

    I am still holding and watching the action very closely before I decide whether to dump my meagre holding.

    Edit: Not a lot of depth at $10.49 tho ... 2 buyers looking for a grand total of 21 shares!
    Last edited by oldtech; 22-03-2019 at 12:32 PM.

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