SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[percy]

I have previously held ABA,AIA AIR,,AWF,,AIA,EBO,HLG,MFT,POT,RBD,SCY,SLI,SML.THL, and XRO.
Did well with them all.
I choose not to hold any of them at present.
I have never owned ATM.

[Beagle]

Fair enough, one must call it as they see it. I agree that some of those stocks are overpriced at present but I am happy to hold AIR, ATM, HLG and SML as I see sound value (taking into the current ultra low interest rates and high market average PE).

The clearly defined strong growth path for FY19 and 20 and only a market average PE is what keeps me holding SML. Relative to the market I think there is still good value here but possibly a little better value SUM where else like OCA but possibly more modest growth with it.

[winner69]

The Bible has a consensus target of $8.89 with a low value of $7.00. The analyst with $7.00 must one of those who just understand SML ...a bit like the poor abused Chris.

Won't use that Bible again .....obviously have to follow people with 'magination' like the one with a value of $11.70 - but as a target he/she is saying it's only valued at just north $10 today

Chris is quite a nice guy if one ever gets to meet him

[percy]

Fair enough, one must call it as they see it. I agree that some of those stocks are overpriced at present but I am happy to hold AIR, HLG and SML as I see sound value (taking into the current ultra low interest rates and high market average PE).

Yes each to their own,and Chris Lee is right to point out his own , as well as "NZ's award-winning researchers" views.
Either you or Chris are right .
I wish you luck.
In the meantime I am more than happy going my own way.
It has worked for me,and I see no reason for it to stop working,in fact, I must say I am "well positioned."

[Beagle]

The Bible has a consensus target of $8.89 with a low value of $7.00. The analyst with $7.00 must one of those who just understand SML ...a bit like the poor abused Chris.

Won't use that Bible again .....obviously have to follow people with 'magination'

Its not the Bible mate but it could be ancient manuscripts those research notes Market sees it differently. FWIW analyst average target price for RYM is only $10.60. Market sees it quite differently there too.
Average analyst price target for ATM before it reported was just $10.60. A few days later after it reported and beat average analyst forecast by just 2% the average price target became $12.80 a 21% increase.
With Synlait due to report on 19 Sept could it just be that some analysts will be dramatically updating what could be very old research notes , i.e. bring them into 2018 thinking with 2019 price targets, finally ?

I'll bet you a beer than the average analyst forecast jumps significantly after the FY18 result is announced later this month...i.e. they simply follow the market up with their price targets..oh my goodness, wash my mouth out they never do that do they ? Oh wait...I do recall that's exactly what happened with AIR a while back when analysts were horribly out of whack with the market. Its amazing how DCF valuations can change significantly if they tweak just one or two assumptions in their model isn't it !

I had an outstanding record year to 31 March 2018 Percy and this year is trucking along fine too so like you I have no reason to change my modus operandi either.
I'm not suggesting the professional analysts are idiots, not by any means, I simply think their research notes are out of date and like when their research said AIR was only worth $2.15 but the market said $2.90 I am more than happy to back my own judgement. Perhaps worth noting that all Chris Lee does is basically parrot the analysts view, not come up with his own which in my opinion makes his opinion piece almost worthless other than to point out how tightly held the company is which is common knowledge already anyway...

[winner69]

Well, after an emotionally charged evening on this thread a new day has dawned.

I reckon the SML share price will perform well today to close the week out on a positive note.

[bull....]

bull markets always produce a few market darlings subject to extreme enthusiam , normally when the party ends they get hit the hardest.

[Beagle]

Average analyst forecast for FY19 (at this stage) is 51.9 cps, to be updated just after the company reports on 19 Sept. At $12.70 that puts SML on a forward FY19 PE of 24.5 times based on this research which may or may not be outdated. This is just a little above the NZX50 forward PE average and this for a company forecast to double its profit this year and grow strongly in the years ahead.
Happy holder and looking forward to the reporting day shortly. This is the top performer of the NZX50 this year with good reason in my opinion but I understand that some people will feel they have missed the boat and its too late to join the party now and that's fine. Each to their own...

I think it makes tremendous sense for ATM to try and take over SML at some stage soon and they'll probably have to pay in the late $teens to do it...but what would I know, that's probably my over active imagination at work again....bad dog...go on a holiday and be done with this for a while.

[peat]

This is the top performer of the NZX50 this year with good reason in my opinion but I understand that some people will feel they have missed the boat and its too late to join the party now and that's fine. Each to their own...

Yes exactly that is how I feel - that I have missed the boat with the milk crowd - I was very tempted when SML went back to mid 10$ lately but never pulled the trigger. I'm very cautious about being a victim of FOMO, but may dip my toes in the milk on any retracement.

[winner69]

Chris Lee said 'progress and value-add at SML and ATM has been astonishing.' and 'Both companies would appear near the beginning of any book entitled ‘’Great NZ Corporate Successes’’.'


That's pretty high praise


Bought a few more today