SML - Synlait Milk Ltd

[kanaka]

Used the latest spike to sell out with a small loss. Can't really see the SP go much higher given the current PE ... and analyst forecasts are continue to drop as well (12 month target is now $3.20 on ft.com - down from $4.18 in Feb 14 for Feb 15 - yeah right!). While I still think that this company might long term prosper (whatever this means in the case of SML) - I see currently lots of other opportunities with better growth prospects, a better communication strategy and better AGM catering . Looking at the trend ... while I might have sold out around the bottom (only time will tell) do I see currently more reasons for the SP to continue the fall than for the trend to change.

Might be back if the SP drops to IPO levels ... though only time will tell, whether it will.

This obviously means that you will need to find this year somebody else to take the AGM minutes ... or just have to rely on the communications manager (bye Michael, I will miss your exciting AGM reports and frequent announcements ...) and / or the Press.

Up 15c so far today - I'm glad to see someone else has my timing, sold a parcel of XRO last year in the low $20's just before their jump to $40+. That & other sad stories too numerous to mention

[The BOWMAN]

Yes, good price jump and bit of increase in volume too. Nice reversal.

[K1W1G0LD]

I did'nt realize the Financial times had the lowdwn on kiwi shares................................or do they??
seems like a bad time to sell out .

[BlackPeter]

Up 15c so far today - I'm glad to see someone else has my timing, sold a parcel of XRO last year in the low $20's just before their jump to $40+. That & other sad stories too numerous to mention

More than 700k shares in mainly big chunks (100k+) changing hands ... up for a SSH notice? I guess whoever the big buyer was, they could have had the courtesy to inform me about their intentions in advance - couldn't they?

Still not sure, where the urge to buy is coming from, but who knows, might be some strategic buyer or maybe a looming announcement (like last year January?). At this stage it still looks like a downtrend to me ...

[K1W1G0LD]

Big leap in Dairy prices in latest Auction. Be interesting to see if it flows to shareprice.


https://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/top-st...uction-prices/

[BFG]

Big leap in Dairy prices in latest Auction. Be interesting to see if it flows to shareprice.


https://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/top-st...uction-prices/

NB - still well below maintaining the last Fonterra payout. Powders up a solid 19% though.

[xafalcon]

Powders up a solid 19% though.

On GDT yes, but not necessarily the same improvement for Synlait's whole milk powder. Remember that Synlait doesn't sell on GDT........

And product mix is also important. Not all milk is turned into whole milk powder. Previous returns favoured production of skim milk powder and anhydrous milk fat over whole milk powder

Synlait also dropped their milk purchase price to $4.40 2 days ago, well below Fonterra's $4.70 + $0.25-0.35. Supplier retention becomes problematic with differentials this large. Although it is expected that Fonterra will revise their milk price downwards in the next few weeks, but by how much is unknown

[Nasi Goreng]

My first post here and I'm pretty dissapointed with SML's result. You could say buying opportunity but these guys continue to get things wrong. Who's making the forex decisions to make a loss of $6.8M? Their lactoferrin project is behind schedule and communication and guidance is lacking. Clear sell signals to me and the market seems to agree.

You could say over the long term, this sector should deliver and so should SML but right now, I'm wondering if management have got what it takes. I'm holding SML and ATM as my only exposure to dairy sector and they are both the dogs of my portfolio.

[dingoNZ]

Take a look at BAL.ASX is my suggestion, they are making a profit and have a lot more growth potential IMO.

Awful result for SML, glad I sold out a few months back. Best of luck to all holders going forward.

[winner69]

I don't know too much about the workings of SML

it seems rather strange that when a lot of the words they say are around 'growth'and 'increasing capability' that the report a 31% drop in revenues

Suppose this is because of the much lower global dairy prices?

Dairy doesn't seem to be very profitable at the moment, Fonterra result was a shocker but SML seems an even worse one. And ATM remains a dog