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  1. #831
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iluab View Post
    I think you may find with some research that the $300m for the next expansion is roughly allocated to one third equity, one third debt (which has been reducing) and one third from forward earnings. So, NO, it's unlikely we will see another capital raising within the next couple of years, thats done now.

    Agree the NZX will take the shareprice to the CR at $3 on low local day trader volume as it does, the next catylst will correct that, and we are due for an ASX announcement and earnings guidance next month which I'm expecting to suprise to the upside.

    I'm not interested in trying to time low volume bottoms, waste of ones time really, anytime about here for an entry is optimal from a long term growth or value investors perspective.

    Miss out if you wish, or be in, it really matters not to me, but the upside potential on a balanced risk reward basis is pretty damn good right now for those that do.
    Just remind me:

    Where have we heard before that the ASX entry will change everything? Right: TIL, PPH, ....
    Why do you expect earnings to be above expectations?

    Anyway - all the best with your investment ... and who knows, if it is appropriately priced I might join in
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  2. #832
    Hunting for Heuristic trends
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Just remind me:

    Where have we heard before that the ASX entry will change everything? Right: TIL, PPH, ....
    Why do you expect earnings to be above expectations?

    Anyway - all the best with your investment ... and who knows, if it is appropriately priced I might join in

    I Agree: Running the models and overlaying with extrapolations for international conditions, I see more slippery slopes to come...

    The "Trump" factor will also come into play (neither of the candidates is "trade-friendly", one is openly hostile towards the concept). and they are in-house for 4 years... but that's just one factor in the game

    caution, observation and patience...
    Last edited by arc; 02-11-2016 at 04:05 PM.

  3. #833
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Just remind me:

    Where have we heard before that the ASX entry will change everything? Right: TIL, PPH, ....
    Why do you expect earnings to be above expectations?

    Anyway - all the best with your investment ... and who knows, if it is appropriately priced I might join in
    Good luck to you if you wish to compare candles and doggy tech stocks with well established going concerns like Synlait. But, to answer your question the closest recent analogy was the MHJ compliance listing.

    Just like SML, a long awaited established business coming to the ASX which has a long history of valuing such stocks more fairly than the NZX. MHJ was up 80% a few months after the listing on very little fundamental change, granted well into over valued territory by then, but great for those investors who had the foresight.

    Clearly you are determined to run Synlait down, keep trying, and I'll keep debunking.

  4. #834
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    Synlait are due within the next few days to issue a listing prospectus to the ASX which should include revenue guidance, and I just wonder if we will see it exceed present analyst expectations at $663m due to;

    1. ATM's presentation yesterday, given that previous guidance from Synlait was for only 12.5% infant formula production growth: ATM reported on track Q1 revenues and stated "continued and consistent growth" in consumer demand for its A2 Platinum infant formula, despite research reports suggesting demand would be volatile.

    2. The recent uptick in WMP prices per plot below, Synlait will need to treat that uptick conservatively, but even so an uptrend is an uptrend and must be taken into account one would expect..

    GDT.jpg



  5. #835
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    Yet another tick up in whole milk prices, can only be a good thing ahead of an SML guidance release, the agm is on the 29th I think, can anyone confirm ?

    GDT.jpg

  6. #836
    Divorced from logic Hectorplains's Avatar
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    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farm...t-formula-game

    Interesting analysis of where a few challenges might lie ahead for SML, the possibility of a 'one line' requirement from China is not one I'd heard much about previously.

  7. #837
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    Less than two weeks to the agm !

    I’m just getting that niggly investors gut feel, you know, that Synlait are going to increase the infant formula growth guidance back upward big time at this agm and knock some socks off,

    ATM are reporting no sales impact of the Chinese regulations at the border, their quarterly revenues are up, and they may actually see no disruption at all assuming they ultimately receive CFDA approval.

    The a2 milk company had this to say last week;

    https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/247651.pdf

    “Revenue for first 3 months consistent with Company expectations at NZ$112.5 million, reflecting continued growth in infant formula and milk products”

    “Continued and consistent growth in consumer demand for a2 PlatinumŽ infant formula, in contrast to expectations of volatility in certain research reports”

  8. #838
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    ATM outperforming market expectations on NPAT due to infant formula sales for the first four months of FY17.

    That can only bode well for SML, and I reckon will put some upward pressure on SML guidance due next week !!!

  9. #839
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Hmm ... one of the more optimistic "Death-Crosses" I remember. Still - from a technical perspective this still could go further downwards (wouldn't it be nice ... my order is not yet completely filled ).

    SML.JPG

    charts courtesy to yahoo ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  10. #840
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Hmm ... one of the more optimistic "Death-Crosses" I remember. Still - from a technical perspective this still could go further downwards (wouldn't it be nice ... my order is not yet completely filled )..
    Seriously, you shouldn't consider even trying to use technical's when there are overriding fundamental matters in play, esp a CR and associated dilution which your chart can't reflect unless you first adjust the core chart data.

    Analyst consensus targets are for around NZ$3.74, I would not be surprised to see those increased after Tuesday given the fundamental outlook, and equally I wouldn't be surprised to see ASX insto's take us there over the coming weeks.

    The agm is Tuesday, the outlook delivered for SML:NZX or SM1:ASX now will be really very interesting I reckon.

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