sharetrader
Page 2 of 48 FirstFirst 12345612 ... LastLast
Results 11 to 20 of 480

Thread: MVN Methven

  1. #11
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    17,222

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by rabcat View Post
    What is up with this company? They put out there anual report and every thing looks good. There UK business is recovering. They announce to the market that they expect profits to increase dramatically yet there share price falls?
    Surely this company has plenty of up side? i.e as world markets recover and Asia grows Methen will be in a good position to take advantage of that?

    Or am I missing something? Does this company have good management? Are there some issues with the board?

    Can any one shed light on this company for me?
    I was interested in investing in this company about 3 or 4 years ago.I had some questions I wanted to ask the CEO.Fella or something like that.Secretary said he would ring me back.Taking his time,as I still have not heard from him.Sort of put me off the company.I do not think they are as clever as they think they are.They are in a competitve market,should they come out with a good product,it will soon be copied and sold cheaper by an Asian competitor.A company on the road to no-where in my opinion.
    Last edited by percy; 02-09-2011 at 06:53 PM.

  2. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    144

    Default

    Methven does a Fletchers... updates the market and loses 10% market valuation.

  3. #13
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Posts
    12

    Default

    OK Gents - this lot have been on my radar for a couple of months as being an "out of favour" stock getting priced very cheaply.

    As I read the numbers on the Methven site investor centre ( http://www.methven.com/nz/investors/five-year-summary ) they make profits every year and seem to be distributing most of it as dividends.

    Recent announcements suggest a $6m full-year profit forecast (within cooee of the last two years) and probably a 6-8c annual dividend still on the cards ... and yet they've dropped to buy/sell range of 100/104.

    I like their products and think that the company is still profitable and likely to get a boost from eventual Chch rebuild - but I'm rubbish at picking a share price bottom - and feel I must be missing something obvious.

    What's the feel with Methven here? Are they a solid share for a 3-5 year hold? Or should I stay away?

  4. #14
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    17,222

    Default

    The company is,and has been in a massive down trend since march.Buying down trending stocks is a sure way to loose money.I would delay any purchases until markets settle,and MVN downward trend has turned.Trying to pick the bottom is impossible,and it is more profitable to buy once the uptrend is confirmed.
    Stay away.

  5. #15
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Posts
    339

    Default

    PJK

    2 things:

    1: Bottom picking – Is a great strategy, although don’t get to fussed on being at the bottom as only one can do that. We bottom pick every time we go shopping as one tends to buy that extra can of baked beans when they are at a one off special. Because it is trending down doesn’t make them worth less. If baked beans start all of a sudden killing people, the lower price is justified, although when the underlying product is the same, it’s worth should be equal so any lower prices creates more value. Unlike supermarkets, shares can go on sale once every decade..

    Trending down should only be at the forefront for a short term trader. Sensibly you are looking over a long period of time which will enable the companies real returns to show in your holdings performance rather than the markets trading.

    2: MVN – Remember, you are buying the company, not there taps/showers. I agree that their products are very good, however that is a huge market and there is no reason why Methven can produce better valued taps than some stranger from overseas. I know the company quite well, and do not think the brand is strong enough to hold them up when it competes on price. Quite a few NZ brands have gone this way of late, have a look at the performance of Pumpkin Patch and Fisher and Paykel – it’s a shame but that’s how it works. Also, Methven's profits are declining and the Returns on equity are falling even faster.

    Bottom picking only works if the underlying company is still similar to what it use to be when it had a higher price. Stop thinking about picking a share at the bottom, rather than a company’s price at the bottom.

    Restaurant Brands right now is a great example, they have had some (what I consider) short term troubles from the EQ and the market has smashed them. This is merely a short term blip as it will not change how people eat KFC in 5 years time. They also pay a big dividend as well. There dividend probably won’t reduce, unlike Methven's which is sure to if they keep up this performance.

    Don’t be scared to stay on the side-lines and really consider the ins and outs of this strategy.

    Do not lose money.
    Last edited by buns; 20-12-2011 at 01:54 PM.

  6. #16
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    73

    Default

    I'm impartial on this subject and don't hold the stock, however..... whilst their overall performance has not been spectacular, they have maintained their dividend. In addition, they do appear to be sorting their issues out from the UK operations side, yet all along they're reducing their debt which it would appear to put them in a favourable position compared to others. Don't forget, the NZX announcements I think at the beginning of December.....noting director purchases. I agree it is near impossible to buy at the bottom, but hopefully some of the above info would tell you this company will be around for sometime to come !

  7. #17
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Posts
    339

    Default

    Cash flow from operations is lowering all the time, and so is debt – that creates a huge hole in your cash balance unless you raise cash back of shareholders, not an ideal situation or sustainable.

    Imagine your income lowering, whilist you are paying down your mortgage - cash is being burnt from both directions.

    If this equation carry’s on Methven simply won’t have cash to pay shareholders or won't have enough cash in the business to maintain its capital commitments.

    This isn’t a deposit, there are many things to consider before the yields. The yields are merely a function of the business. If the business stops, so will your yields.
    Last edited by buns; 20-12-2011 at 03:55 PM.

  8. #18
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    37,739

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    Any more thoughts on Methven? I am beginning to wonder if it is getting into the deep value play (like F&P).
    Going to be kicked out of the NZX50 soon ..... so if any insto's hold for the sake of keeping close to the benchmark might be a bit of selling ..... though I reckon many would not have bothered holding and taking a chance

  9. #19
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    284

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown View Post
    Any more thoughts on Methven? I am beginning to wonder if it is getting into the deep value play (like F&P).
    Looks like a sick puppy to me, the only thing deep about it being the doo doo it is in.
    Has an open register, so might be a takeover play when the rot is fully evident, the shareprice fully reflects the realities, and a "white knight" offers a 30% premium to a price more like 70? But who would want it?

  10. #20
    percy
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    17,222

    Default

    Sir Ron Brierley ?

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •