MVN Methven

[percy]

Remove your tongue from your cheek winner

Spot on.!!
Winner69.I see EPS growth [if any] at 2.5% not 25% so I think the PEG will work out between 1.5 and 2,which means avoid.!

[BIRMANBOY]

W69...if you bang on often enough for sustained periods....statistically you increase your chances of being right. I'm happy that you feel vindicated now. I don't read their results, don't care about their problems or wins....I just deposit the checks. KISS is my modus operandi. As previously stated my return on this is substantial and when it slows or stops its time to "turn off the taps". Until then you can be as right as you like. If it gets down to $1 .10 or so I'll probably buy some more. Its got a strong dividend history so it suits me well. She may not be the prettiest girl in the room but she loves me..what can I say.

So the "around the same level or up to 10% up on last year’s reported result" is now " to be 5% to 10% down on last year's reported result"

Whoops = didn't really have a handle on things six weeks ago did they

MVN say they are a growth company .... for that reason only Birman I will continue to bang on with the same old, same old for years

Hope for your sake they don't do anything to that dividend you are looking forward to

[percy]

Craigs have update their recommendation on MVN and have changed it from Buy to Hold.
"second profit warning indicates the earnings risk for the next 6-12 months is very much on the downside,and management does not appear to be in control of the situation."
No surprises there!!! ???? lol
BIRMANBOY; Hold your cheque book at the ready.!!

[BIRMANBOY]

I'm ready Percy...its just been topped up with my obscene profits from TRS so willing to add a few more on the dips.

Craigs have update their recommendation on MVN and have changed it from Buy to Hold.
"second profit warning indicates the earnings risk for the next 6-12 months is very much on the downside,and management does not appear to be in control of the situation."
No surprises there!!! ???? lol
BIRMANBOY; Hold your cheque book at the ready.!!

[winner69]

That's mean of Craig's to say ....and management does not appear to be in control of the situation."

It's not that consumers / tradies are buying Methven stuff .....it's just there were so many taps and shower heads sitting in the plumbing merchants stores that they haven't had to buy many later. Oops they were MVN sales last year and that's what paid Birmans dividend.

They are buggers those plumbing merchants the no doubt the big boxes as well .....they should be buying more and more and not reducing stck levels.

Craig's don't get it .....out of management control eh Percy ......equilibrium will soon come to reason ....and MVN will grow at 25% pa again ....oops 2.5% pa

Sorry Birman .....I have no need to be vindicated .....just that MVN continually set themselves up for this type of carry on.

[percy]

I'm ready Percy...its just been topped up with my obscene profits from TRS so willing to add a few more on the dips.

I do enjoy your posts.Just hope you will have the last laugh,and Winner69 and I will have to eat humble pie!!

[percy]

That's mean of Craig's to say ....and management does not appear to be in control of the situation."

It's not that consumers / tradies are buying Methven stuff .....it's just there were so many taps and shower heads sitting in the plumbing merchants stores that they haven't had to buy many later. Oops they were MVN sales last year and that's what paid Birmans dividend.

They are buggers those plumbing merchants the no doubt the big boxes as well .....they should be buying more and more and not reducing stck levels.

Craig's don't get it .....out of management control eh Percy ......equilibrium will soon come to reason ....and MVN will grow at 25% pa again ....oops 2.5% pa

Sorry Birman .....I have no need to be vindicated .....just that MVN continually set themselves up for this type of carry on.

I was very surprised by Craig's strong language.Would have thought they would have come out with a sell recommendation.Really think Craig's analysts was foolish with his last report.Must not read your posts here on sharetrader.I remember your wonderful post where you compared MVN's results to their talk.It was a classic.!
Was thinking to myself possibly the hardest rep's job would be trying to sell taps and shower units to the like's of Bunnings.

[winner69]

I was very surprised by Craig's strong language.Would have thought they would have come out with a sell recommendation.Really think Craig's analysts was foolish with his last report.Must not read your posts here on sharetrader.I remember your wonderful post where you compared MVN's results to their talk.It was a classic.!
Was thinking to myself possibly the hardest rep's job would be trying to sell taps and shower units to the like's of Bunnings.

Yep ..... Bunnings owned by Wesfarmers a la Coles and the grocer way of buying applies to Bunnings

We buy at this price / you stock the shelves up and put in a lot of merchandising / you come in the shop every so often to show our stuff they work / you give us rebate to stay in the shop

If they don't sell take your stock away

[BlackPeter]

Interesting discussion. Just looking at their 5 year summary:

http://www.methven.com/nz/investors/five-year-summary

Yes, there is a lot of consistent growth, but unfortunately into the wrong direction. Over the last 5 years revenue shrunk by nearly 30% and NPAT went down by nearly 50%.

Birmanboy, appreciate your view on dividends, but it looks like they paid already last year a higher dividend than they can afford (earned 7.7 cts/share, but paid 9 cts per share dividend), which is clearly not sustainable.

I guess the big question is - are they likely to recover? NZ is likely to have over the next couple of years a building boom (general housing shortage and Christchurch rebuild), which is good for them. UK might recover as well (northern Europe doing quite well at current), Australia is in my view more a question mark. Asia might become an interesting market (growing middle class), but whether Methven gets their foot into this market is anybodys best guess.

Personally I would think that the market overreacted to the recent announcement (and I am still holding a smaller parcel) - but I probably wouldn't want to bid the bank on them staying a reliable dividend stock. The next annual report might be interesting reading...

[winner69]

Personally I would think that the market overreacted to the recent announcement (and I am still holding a smaller parcel) - but I probably wouldn't want to bid the bank on them staying a reliable dividend stock. The next annual report might be interesting reading...

The market seemed to take the 30/1 profit warning in its stride and even though the price went down 5 cents or so it soon recovered to be over 140. Not much reaction then (maybe Milford and Salt kept the price up)


Now 2 months later another profit warning. Market not forgiving this time around by the looks of it.

So I don't see the current fall as an over reaction - just 'punishing' them as they say for a pretty big downgrade now, one that wasn't punished in January.

You can only piss off the market so many times .... but if you bet on 9.5 cents dividend you'd be in boots and all at 119