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Thread: MVN Methven

  1. #271
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Things really firing down Methven way

    Profits up 20% last 6 months

    And for you divie lovers a special 3 cent bonus coming for Xmas

    https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/224311.pdf
    Wow - looks quite good - I am sure this will put a bit of fire under the share price .

    We must give them as well that they seemed to be quite tight lipped about the good financial results - hardly any noticeable pre-announcement SP rise ...
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    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  2. #272
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Thumbs up I will take that dividend

    Looks good at first glance and obviously the company itself is pleased as.

    Last 6 months NPAT up 20% on what prior period? I can assume but do not know.

    The rolling year to Jun compared to Mar is also good but they used to complain about seasonality (or was that someone else?), so just a tiny bit of doubt at the back of my mind on what this means going forward.

    Anyway not to look a gift horse in the mouth, to back it both ways, and to justify having kept them in the portfolio - I always knew they were going to turn it up a notch.

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

  3. #273
    percy
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    Well I am about to eat my hat.!
    Always happy to be proved wrong.

  4. #274
    Advanced Member BIRMANBOY's Avatar
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    That would explain your constantly sunny disposition Percy..... Just kidding of course...theres no such thing as definitively right or wrong just a constant shift of movement so wait a while and you may be right!!! Hopefully its readily digestible hat.
    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Well I am about to eat my hat.!
    Always happy to be proved wrong.
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  5. #275
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    Should re-rate further if/when market convinced growth is sustainable, if it is $1.50 looks well achieveable.

  6. #276
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Default $3m Callaghan design subsidy

    Looks like good news come in swarms ... MVN was granted a (up to) $3 million subsidy of their R&D cost - 20% of R&D cost for the next 3 to 5 years:

    https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/224359.pdf

    Though I don't like the system of the government picking winners ... I guess as long as we can't change it, it is probably better if companies I am holding are receiving these grants as opposed to companies I am not holding ...

    Discl: holding ...
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    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  7. #277
    Reincarnated Panthera Snow Leopard's Avatar
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    Thumbs up I know what you really mean

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    ...Though I don't like the system of the government picking winners ...
    They have also given a grant to PEB

    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

  8. #278
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    Another good day in another weak market, not sure if the charties picked this one? My $1.50 would be 6% net assuming 8c per share.

  9. #279
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Sure was an impressive presentation and look at those numbers - $13m in 2018

    What can one make out of it - maybe lots

    Lets assume 5 outcomes -

    1.- it all goes to plan and that $13m happens
    2.- above but the market is in raptures and rerates Methven, ie a higher PE
    3.- sort of goes to plan but they only get half way there
    4.- its all pretty pictures and nice words and Methven struggle on as usual
    5.- another GFC hits and it all turns to custard

    Possible outcomes in graphic. Shows Total Shareholder Return over the 3 years and I have assigned some odds to each scenario

    Could get a return of 42% pa over 3 years or lose 6% over the three years. But based on the odds I have assigned to each scenario an expected return of 20%pa

    Bloody good eh

    But then some of you might assign 90% to scenario 4 which ruins the story

    Hmmm - have I been seduced
    That was my little analysis after that July presentation they did

    Looks like the pumping on steroids Scenario is playing out - shareprice $2.58 in 2018 for a 42% pa return

    No I wasn't seduced bck in July ..... share price much the same as back then so plenty of time to get seduced again
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    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  10. #280
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    I like Stride 2 but Stride 1 would be just fine!

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