GBP NZD Long Term

[Bjauck]

I'm inclined to think that the GBP moves more in response to politicalcertainty/uncertainty than it does to economic good/bad news. So I'm picking that there will be a slow decline in the GBP over the course of the year as the UK becomes slowly and slightly more politically fragile over the course of Mister Johnson's premiership.

Maybe. The two are entwined. The Political environment affects the investment and economic environment. When No Deal had seemed more likely, the GBP dropped. So perhaps a mixture. If trade barriers are erected as a a consequence of implementing UK only hegemony over standards etc. with an impact on trade then I think inevitably the GBP will be affected.

As far as political uncertainty is concerned, I think that the Boris Johnson faction has definitely triumphed within the Conservatives. So many mp's entered parliament as a result of Johnson heading the Con's campaign. From a party caucus split between remainers, soft brexiters and hard Brexit leavers, they now are all "hard Brexit leavers" even if some still think the best future for the UK would have been as a member of or closely aligned to the EU.

However I don't think political certainty will preclude the GBP being sold off at various stages during Johnson's brinkmanship with the EU. There are still various hard Brexit and cliff edge scenarios affecting services and trade that could spook markets.

Final my *rse! This thing will drag on for years. Too many jobs, too much political capital, and too much money at stake for it to be allowed to end.

I don't think many Brexit leaders actually thought they would win a referendum. Just how much self-inflicted pain and subordination of other non-Brexit public matters will the public tolerate?