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Thread: Crude Oil

  1. #1
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Default Crude Oil


    There seems to be some interesting views on this topic, so
    perhaps it would be more sensible to separate it from the
    gold thread for discussion. I will post a chart when I get the time.

    In the meantime heres some interesting info.........

    http://www.cooperativeresearch.org/o...oilcrisis.html

    http://www.cooperativeresearch.org/o...ntralasia.html












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    I wont be suprised to see the price of oil hit $80 to $90 in the long term, with all the trouble around the world its a matter of when it hits $80 or $90 mark.

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    Petroleum Consultant L.F. Ivanhoe said in 1997, “Thus the question is not whether but when the foreseeable permanent oil crunch will occur. This next paralyzing and permanent oil shock will not be solved by any redistribution patterns or by economic cleverness, because it will be a consequence of pending and inexorable depletion of the world's conventional crude oil supply. Few economists can bring themselves to accept that the global oil supply is geologically finite. The global price of oil after the supply crunch should follow the simplest economic law of supply and demand: There will be a major increase in crude oil and all other fuels' prices, accompanied by global hyperinflation, rationing, etc. After the associated economic implosion, many of the world's developed societies may look like today's Russia. The United States may be competing with China for every tanker of oil, with the Persian Gulf oil exporters preferring Chinese rockets to American paper dollars for their oil.” [The Futurist Jan/Feb 1997]



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    It takes six weeks for VLCCs, used to haul most Middle East crude, to reach the U.S. Gulf Coast. The U.S. used 20.1 million barrels of oil a day in 2003, according to the BP Plc Statistical Review of World Energy. OPEC pumped 29.2 million barrels a day in June, according to Bloomberg data, the highest since October 2000.

    Brent crude for August settlement was up 46 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $37.07 a barrel on London's International Petroleum Exchange at 1:22 p.m. Futures gained amid concerns about supply disruptions in Nigeria, Iraq and Russia, where OAO Yukos Oil Co. faces a tax bill that may bankrupt it.

    Royal Dutch/Shell Group, Europe's second-largest oil company, is one of about 14 companies and traders looking to book as many as 17 VLCCs to load Middle East oil early next month, brokers said. A phase-out of single-hulled tankers, aimed at reducing the risk of oil spills, is reducing ship supplies.

    ``The market is going to be heading north, that's for sure,'' Manson said. ``The availability of double-hulled units is pretty scarce so we will see some interesting negotiations.''

    yes north thought so ,short term oil 36-40 mid term 38-42 long 50+
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

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    LONDON - Rising world oil consumption next year is expected to deliver another increase in demand for OPEC crude supplies, the cartel's Vienna secretariat said in a report today, its first forecast for 2005.

    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it saw demand for its crude up 340,000 bpd to an average 27.36 million barrels a day, from 27.02 million bpd in 2004, following an increase of 590,000 bpd this year.

    The projection may help underpin the view that OPEC should be able to sustain a bull run on world oil prices into a sixth year following the price crash of late 1998 and early 1999.

    U.S. oil prices now are back above $41 despite OPEC's efforts to calm markets by opening up the pumps. Traders worry that with production from the cartel now close to full capacity there is little spare to cover disruptions.

    World oil demand in 2005 is projected to climb 1.66 million bpd to 82.56 million bpd, up two percent, after unusually sharp growth of 2.1 million bpd, 2.7 percent this year, the report said.

    The 2005 demand growth estimate is a little lower than the 1.82 million bpd projected by the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based group that advises industrialised energy consuming nations.

    OPEC's forecast for the call on its crude is very close to the IEA's projection of 27.4 million bpd. Both are well below OPEC's latest estimate for its own output of 28.92 million bpd for June, when it said production rose 700,000 bpd from May.

    That could mean OPEC considers cutting back production at some point to prevent world oil inventories rising too far.

    OPEC late last year and earlier in 2005 cut production because it feared sharp inventory builds. But demand forecasts proved too low and the output cuts helped spur prices to record highs of over $42 for U.S. crude.

    Demand for OPEC crude is expected to rise sharply in the remainder of this year from the seasonal low-point of the second quarter. The call on OPEC crude should increase 1.24 million bpd in the fourth quarter to 28.17 million bpd on top of 1.4 million bpd of growth in the third quarter, the report said.

    more reasons to invest in oilersholding-OSH,BUY,OLX
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

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    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    The bearish Butterfly pattern has a high probabiity score,
    so in the next few days we will see if it is the case this time.

    The target reversal area would be $49-51.



    NB. This chart shows the Gartley Butterfly set-up
    and is a few days old with the current price closing
    near the $48 overnight.



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    past the $51 mark only $30 to go before it hits $80

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    Interesting chart from Chartoftheday.com
    showing inflation related oil price.







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    Interesting site
    www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

    cheers
    mark

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    Interveiw with Matt Savinar on FSO

    The FSO team have been talking about oil peak for 2-3 years now


    http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2004/Savinar.html
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

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    Today's WrapUp by Jim Willie CB 11.18.2004 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Archive


    PUTIN SHAKES THE PETRO-DOLLAR REGIME

    Subtle changes are in the wind on the energy front. As much as some people want to regard Russia as a strong American ally, their behavior on several fronts testifies to the contrary. Some truly staggering developments are underway, not adequately reported. Behind the scenes, covered little by the intrepid US press & media, a meeting was convened two weeks ago in the Urals of Russia. European leaders, and OPEC representatives, and Putin quietly are plotting to establish stronger ties between Europe and Russia in their basis for financial transactions. Putin is adroitly offering to install euro pricing of crude oil, which would surely favor Germany and other large EU nations. He strives to obtain geopolitical concessions from EU leaders, namely a more powerful voice for Russia in world politics.

    OPEC appears to be willing and eager to join in new alliances to undermine the US domination from owning the world reserve currency. Enormous consequences follow, which lie completely in US blind spots. A strange contrasting parallel might exist between the United States and Russia, regarding relationships with large energy companies. The USA has evolved into a cooperative collusion with big companies like Halliburton. Russia has broken down into a confrontational situation steeped in confiscation with big companies like Yukos. The USA seems to work constructively with large firms, with governmental support. This is seen in sponsored foreign grain sales, in development of petro-chemical plants, in defense contracts for the military complex, in permissiveness toward software monopolies, in protection of the steel industry, and elsewhere. Russia seems to work in adversarial roles to steal back and forth with their big firms.

    RUSSIAN ASSAULT ON FREE ENTERPRISE

    Russian legal treachery embodies a big insult to free enterprise and rights to property. One might say Yukos Oil began as a company with stolen property, or cozy deals to gather in several purchases from state-owned regions, or tax scoffs at Russian authorities enabled growth. Fine, whatever. My attention is trained on current methods, which can be aptly labeled as legal warfare, and trends which betray private property. The Yukos tax & fine bill submitted was revealed to be $18.5 billion, which exceeds the company’s annual revenue, and goes far beyond the level where embarrassment is profoundly clear. The Russian government has established a modus operandi, i.e. method of operation. A company is targeted for seizure. It is charged with tax evasion. Their assets are then frozen, pending investigations and legal outcomes. Cash flow is interrupted, only to put debt service repayments in jeopardy. The courts declare debt default, a fresh new problem for the targeted company, whose stock declines in value, and possibly sharply. Under financial duress, a deal is cut, as taxes are paid as a fraction of the original demand in return for a sale of large tracts of the company’s properties to the Russian govt. Charges are reduced or negotiated along with the distress sale of their property. Such a pattern has shown itself clearly with the Yukos case.

    Moreover on the front tied to cooperative agreements, Russia’s treachery is wholly evident in its dealings with western firms. Pan Am Silver was severely victimized, via dissolution of a partner firm and reconstitution of a new corporate entity Polimetall with those mining rights, leaving the US firm out in the cold Siberian winter. PanAm Silver appears not to be in line to share profits where silver production is forthcoming. The original company was dissolved, and along with it, all contracts with PanAm. Czarist gamesmanship with western energy companies is now in focus. British Petroleum is at risk with older contracts, while others like Conoco Philips are at risk with newer contracts. British Petroleum could be in the midst of a bold double-cross, for the craziest of sounding reasons. They exce
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    Oil prices look to be undergoing a blow off top.

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    That's what I'm thinking Packers

    I expect the price to go back down to the low 50's over the next couple of months

    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

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    Hey, Mick.

    I think if this scenario happens it will affect most energy stocks in the short term: overall it could be a good thing for sharemarkets, however.

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    Hi POK

    The charts are hard to interpret at the moment,
    but I will keep a watch for signs of butterflies.

    I did notice this article if its of any interest.

    http://www.safehaven.com/article-3712.htm

    arco





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    Cheers, Arco.

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    Oil to drop to $US35 next year: Forbes
    http://smh.com.au/articles/2005/08/3...302549456.html

    BHP Billiton CEO expects oil to fall
    http://smh.com.au/articles/2005/08/3...302608530.html

    Seems the 'smart money'[?] on this one is forecasting a fall. Personally I have no idea and don't try and forecast future commodity prices in the short term as there are too many outside unknown factors but one thing that cannot be denied and can be quantified is that demand is outstripping supply. I would prefer to take a 'random walk' on this and feel it could go either way
    The more I learn, the more I realise I don\'t know!!

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    quote:Originally posted by Long Strangle

    quote:Originally posted by Mick100


    That's what I'm thinking Packers

    I expect the price to go back down to the low 50's over the next couple of months

    ,
    Absolutely on way this is going back down to the low 50s this year or next. All date points to it holding current highs, and possible making further highs. Would love to see some research behind your statement.

    I should add that medium/long term i think oil is heading higher but short term I expect a pullback

    Have you heard of the oil indicator? (stephen Leeb)
    It shows that,in the past, if oil rises in price by 80% or more in a 12 month period the result will be a world wide reccession which in turn leads to a drop in demand for oil and thus, lower prices.
    Oil is up over 60% in the last 12 months so it's time to be cautious in my opinion. If oil goes much higher in this run-up I will concider bailing out of my oilers. I hope that I'm right and oil pulls back in price short term.

    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

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    I have just finished reading Matthew Simmons book "twilight in the desert" and would recommend it as required reading to all those interested or invested in the oil sector.

    It raises a number of questions as to the ability of Saudi Arabia to meet oil demand going forward as well as the high probability that we are close to these fields peaking out.

    I would rate this book 10/10.
    <center>\"I strive to bring glory to the mother country\"</center>

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    Oil below $63 as high prices crimp demand
    Mon Sep 12, 2005 11:40 AM ET
    Printer Friendly | Email Article | Reprints

    By Peg Mackey
    LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices slumped below $63 a barrel on Monday as signs of a slowdown in global petroleum demand growth countered the struggle to restart U.S. oil facilities after Hurricane Katrina.

    U.S. crude was off $1.23 at $62.85 a barrel. Crude is now $8 below the record high of $70.85 struck on August 30. London Brent crude slipped $1.24 to $61.60.

    Forecasts are that Katrina's destruction could shave 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points off U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter, further undermining fuel demand just as high prices hit consumption.

    "For the first time, traders have to worry about demand," said Gary Ross, chief executive of U.S. energy consultancy PIRA Energy.

    "There's no doubt there is evidence of demand destruction emerging everywhere. U.S. gasoline data over the next few weeks will show the effect of high oil prices on demand."

    High prices are also eating into Asian oil consumption growth. The International Energy Agency last week has cut its projection for China growth this year by 100,000 bpd to 220,000 bpd. Traders are seeking to move surplus petroleum products from Asia to Atlantic Basin markets.

    China's annual consumer price inflation unexpectedly slowed to 1.3 percent in August from 1.8 percent in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. The figure was the lowest since September 2003.

    The IEA last week revised down its forecast for world oil demand growth this year by 250,000 bpd to 1.35 million bpd, compared to 2.9 million bpd last year.
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

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