sharetrader
Page 1 of 40 1234511 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 397

Thread: Crude Oil

  1. #1
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,877

    Default Crude Oil


    There seems to be some interesting views on this topic, so
    perhaps it would be more sensible to separate it from the
    gold thread for discussion. I will post a chart when I get the time.

    In the meantime heres some interesting info.........

    http://www.cooperativeresearch.org/o...oilcrisis.html

    http://www.cooperativeresearch.org/o...ntralasia.html












    ___________________


    ___________________

  2. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2001
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    79

    Default

    I wont be suprised to see the price of oil hit $80 to $90 in the long term, with all the trouble around the world its a matter of when it hits $80 or $90 mark.

  3. #3
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,877

    Default


    Petroleum Consultant L.F. Ivanhoe said in 1997, “Thus the question is not whether but when the foreseeable permanent oil crunch will occur. This next paralyzing and permanent oil shock will not be solved by any redistribution patterns or by economic cleverness, because it will be a consequence of pending and inexorable depletion of the world's conventional crude oil supply. Few economists can bring themselves to accept that the global oil supply is geologically finite. The global price of oil after the supply crunch should follow the simplest economic law of supply and demand: There will be a major increase in crude oil and all other fuels' prices, accompanied by global hyperinflation, rationing, etc. After the associated economic implosion, many of the world's developed societies may look like today's Russia. The United States may be competing with China for every tanker of oil, with the Persian Gulf oil exporters preferring Chinese rockets to American paper dollars for their oil.” [The Futurist Jan/Feb 1997]



    ___________________


    ___________________

  4. #4
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Central Otago
    Posts
    8,476

    Default

    It takes six weeks for VLCCs, used to haul most Middle East crude, to reach the U.S. Gulf Coast. The U.S. used 20.1 million barrels of oil a day in 2003, according to the BP Plc Statistical Review of World Energy. OPEC pumped 29.2 million barrels a day in June, according to Bloomberg data, the highest since October 2000.

    Brent crude for August settlement was up 46 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $37.07 a barrel on London's International Petroleum Exchange at 1:22 p.m. Futures gained amid concerns about supply disruptions in Nigeria, Iraq and Russia, where OAO Yukos Oil Co. faces a tax bill that may bankrupt it.

    Royal Dutch/Shell Group, Europe's second-largest oil company, is one of about 14 companies and traders looking to book as many as 17 VLCCs to load Middle East oil early next month, brokers said. A phase-out of single-hulled tankers, aimed at reducing the risk of oil spills, is reducing ship supplies.

    ``The market is going to be heading north, that's for sure,'' Manson said. ``The availability of double-hulled units is pretty scarce so we will see some interesting negotiations.''

    yes north thought so ,short term oil 36-40 mid term 38-42 long 50+
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  5. #5
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2002
    Location
    Central Otago
    Posts
    8,476

    Default

    LONDON - Rising world oil consumption next year is expected to deliver another increase in demand for OPEC crude supplies, the cartel's Vienna secretariat said in a report today, its first forecast for 2005.

    The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it saw demand for its crude up 340,000 bpd to an average 27.36 million barrels a day, from 27.02 million bpd in 2004, following an increase of 590,000 bpd this year.

    The projection may help underpin the view that OPEC should be able to sustain a bull run on world oil prices into a sixth year following the price crash of late 1998 and early 1999.

    U.S. oil prices now are back above $41 despite OPEC's efforts to calm markets by opening up the pumps. Traders worry that with production from the cartel now close to full capacity there is little spare to cover disruptions.

    World oil demand in 2005 is projected to climb 1.66 million bpd to 82.56 million bpd, up two percent, after unusually sharp growth of 2.1 million bpd, 2.7 percent this year, the report said.

    The 2005 demand growth estimate is a little lower than the 1.82 million bpd projected by the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based group that advises industrialised energy consuming nations.

    OPEC's forecast for the call on its crude is very close to the IEA's projection of 27.4 million bpd. Both are well below OPEC's latest estimate for its own output of 28.92 million bpd for June, when it said production rose 700,000 bpd from May.

    That could mean OPEC considers cutting back production at some point to prevent world oil inventories rising too far.

    OPEC late last year and earlier in 2005 cut production because it feared sharp inventory builds. But demand forecasts proved too low and the output cuts helped spur prices to record highs of over $42 for U.S. crude.

    Demand for OPEC crude is expected to rise sharply in the remainder of this year from the seasonal low-point of the second quarter. The call on OPEC crude should increase 1.24 million bpd in the fourth quarter to 28.17 million bpd on top of 1.4 million bpd of growth in the third quarter, the report said.

    more reasons to invest in oilersholding-OSH,BUY,OLX
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  6. #6
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,877

    Default


    The bearish Butterfly pattern has a high probabiity score,
    so in the next few days we will see if it is the case this time.

    The target reversal area would be $49-51.



    NB. This chart shows the Gartley Butterfly set-up
    and is a few days old with the current price closing
    near the $48 overnight.



    ___________________


    ___________________

  7. #7
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2001
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    79

    Default

    past the $51 mark only $30 to go before it hits $80

  8. #8
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,877

    Default


    Interesting chart from Chartoftheday.com
    showing inflation related oil price.







    ___________________


    ___________________

  9. #9
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Posts
    1,023

    Default

    Interesting site
    www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

    cheers
    mark

  10. #10
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,086

    Default


    Interveiw with Matt Savinar on FSO

    The FSO team have been talking about oil peak for 2-3 years now


    http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2004/Savinar.html
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •