Crude Oil

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

It will be shorter odds, than Pop Rock
in the Melbourne Cup, today .....

..... a cold snap in NYC is all that it will take to lift
heating oil prices and gas prices, again.

Figuring, that the last negative news for oil will be
around 24-29112006, then we can look for a rally
into the end of December 2006.

First half of January 2007 may see oil flat-to-down,
then rally from around 18012007-to-09022007 ...???

More later .....

happy trading

yogi

P.S. ..... we will be alert for a BIG rally in oil,
around 29102007.



=====

[JBmurc]

[quote]Originally posted by yogi-in-oz


First half of January 2007 may see oil flat-to-down,
then rally from around 18012007-to-09022007 ...???

-Looks like where getting that rebound was always going to happen IMHOGreat buying in STU,PPP,ARQ,STO,WPL,OSH of late

Oil Rises Most in 16 Months on Cold Weather, Economic Growth

By Mark Shenk

Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil surged to its biggest gain in 16 months on speculation that colder weather and an improving economy will spur U.S. fuel consumption.

The National Weather Service predicted that below-normal temperatures will persist in the eastern U.S. for the next two weeks, and the price of natural gas, the country's most common home-heating fuel, jumped 11 percent. Consumer confidence in the U.S., where 25 percent of the world's oil is consumed, neared a five-year high, a report today showed.

``It's finally gotten cold, which will boost demand for natural gas and heating oil,'' said Bill O'Grady, director of fundamental futures research at A.G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis. ``There's been a steady stream of good economic news in the U.S.,'' he said. ``The energy markets can no longer shrug off the economic numbers.''

Crude oil for March delivery rose $2.96, or 5.5 percent, to $56.97 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price since Jan. 3. It was the biggest one-day gain since Sept 19, 2005, when Hurricane Rita was approaching the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. Futures are 17 percent lower than a year ago.

``The weather turned cold and the funds came in,'' said Kyle Cooper, director of research at IAF Advisors in Houston. ``It looks like there's technical buying and new participants entering the market. I think holding $50 was an important signal for investors.''

Economic Indicators

New York futures dropped as low as $49.90 on Jan. 18. Prices shot higher in the two weeks since then because short sellers, who sold contracts in a bet on falling prices, started to buy them back once the market failed to stay below $50, Cooper said.

Brent crude oil for March settlement increased $2.71, or 5.1 percent, to $56.39 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures exchange, the highest closing price since Jan. 3.

The Conference Board's index of U.S. consumer confidence rose to 110.3 this month, the highest since May 2002, from a revised 110 a month earlier, the New York-based group said today. Retail sales rose 0.9 percent in December, the most in five months, the government said on Jan. 12.

Heating demand in the U.S. Northeast, where 80 percent of the nation's heating oil is used, will be 20 percent above normal in the next week, according to Weather Derivatives, a forecaster in Belton, Missouri. Warm U.S. weather curbed heating-oil demand in December and the first half of January, and oil prices got as low as $49.90 a barrel on Jan. 18.

Coldest Winter Weather

``There are indications that the Northeast may see the coldest temperatures of the winter during the early part of next week,'' said Michael Palmerino, a forecaster at Lexington, Massachusetts-based Meteorlogix LLC. ``We're looking for temperatures that are 8-to-10 degrees below normal in both New York and Boston.''

Heating oil for February delivery rose 8.91 cents, or 5.8 percent, to $1.638 a gallon in New York, the highest close since Dec. 22. Natural gas for March delivery surged 80.3 cents, or 12 percent, to $7.74 per million British thermal units in New York, the highest close since Dec. 6. It was the biggest one-day gain since Oct. 16.

An Energy Department report tomorrow is expected to show that U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories rose last week, according to the median of responses by 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Analysts said the report will show supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, fell for the first time in seven weeks.

Crosscurrents

Oil is also getting support from the prospect that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will follow through on

[Crypto Crude]

crudes on the rise again....
<center>US OIL OUTPUT SLIDES </center>
Oil production problems throughout north and south america will hurt US efforts to cut back on Mid east Crude imports, energy experts say.
Steep oil field decline rates in Mexico and Venezuela and problems in Offshore US and Canadian areas will lower output from the region, countering expectations of a rise.
Analysts predict North and South American oil supplies could fall by close to 200,000 barrels per day
[8D]
.^sc

[JBmurc]

Crude Oil Rises After Nigeria Announces Production Cutbacks

By Mark Shenk

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil in New York rose to the highest close this year after Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, said it will comply with OPEC production cuts.

Nigeria, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' sixth-biggest producer, is set to cut output by 142,000 barrels a day under agreements reached in 2006. Occidental Petroleum Corp., the fourth-biggest U.S. oil company, said 120,000 barrels a day of output has been lost after a fire at its Elk Hills field in California. It's the seventh-largest field on the U.S. mainland.

``There's some disagreement about the size of the cut but it's clear that some barrels will be taken off the market,'' said Tom Bentz, an oil broker with BNP Paribas Inc. in New York.

Crude oil for March delivery rose 18 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $59.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close since Dec. 29. Futures touched $60.80, the highest intraday price since Jan. 3. Prices are 1.5 percent higher this week and 4.4 percent lower than a year ago.

News reports from Dow Jones and other organizations said Nigeria was planning to cut as much as 300,000 barrels a day in March.

``What we're going to do is what OPEC has asked us to do,'' Levi Ajuonuma, spokesman for Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., said in an interview from Abuja. ``Nothing more.''

OPEC pledged to cut 500,000 barrels of oil a day from supplies starting this month, on top of a 1.2 million barrel-a- day reduction on Nov. 1.

Oil Supplies

``There have been a number of stories that demonstrate that oil supplies aren't to be taken for granted,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. ``The Occidental field was shut down yesterday, the Hibernia field in Canada is also shut, there are problems with the Cantarell field and Norwegian production is declining.''

Output at Exxon Mobil Corp.'s Hibernia field in Canada will be closed from mid-February for as much as four weeks as it undergoes its biggest maintenance program in five years, a company spokeswoman said Feb. 7.

Production at the field, located offshore Newfoundland, has been hampered since Jan. 2, when a fuel valve failed in a generator and reduced power needed for production. Daily oil output in January averaged about 120,000 barrels, down from about 180,000 previously, the company said.

Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico's state-owned oil company, said output will drop 15 percent this year at Cantarell, the world's third-largest oil field, said Chief Executive Officer Jesus Reyes Heroles on Feb. 7. Output at Cantarell in the Gulf of Campeche will fall to 1.53 million barrels per day in 2007, said Reyes Heroles. Cantarell produced 1.79 million barrels per day in 2006.

Norway dropped to fifth place among the world's crude-oil exporters last year as the nation's North Sea production declined, the Norwegian energy ministry said.

Cold Weather

Mild weather in December and early January helped push New York futures to $49.90 a barrel on Jan. 18, the lowest since May 25, 2005. The arrival of colder weather has helped drive prices higher this month.

``The weather along the Northeast will moderate over the weekend and we should see near-normal highs on Monday,'' said Dale Mohler, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. ``The relative warmth will last only one day and temperatures will trend back down Tuesday. We will soon see temperatures that are 12 to 15 degrees below normal.''

The normal high temperature in New York at this time of year is 39 degrees Fahrenheit (4 Celsius) and 27 degrees Fahrenheit is the normal low, according to the National Weather Service.

The Northeast

Home-heating demand in the Northeast, the region responsible for 80 percent of U.S. heating-oil use, will be 23 percent above normal for the next week, said Weather Derivatives, a forecaster in Belton, Missouri. The National Weather Service predicted that below

[JBmurc]

Crude Oil Rises After Nigeria Announces Production Cutbacks

By Mark Shenk

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil in New York rose to the highest close this year after Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, said it will comply with OPEC production cuts.

Nigeria, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' sixth-biggest producer, is set to cut output by 142,000 barrels a day under agreements reached in 2006. Occidental Petroleum Corp., the fourth-biggest U.S. oil company, said 120,000 barrels a day of output has been lost after a fire at its Elk Hills field in California. It's the seventh-largest field on the U.S. mainland.

``There's some disagreement about the size of the cut but it's clear that some barrels will be taken off the market,'' said Tom Bentz, an oil broker with BNP Paribas Inc. in New York.

Crude oil for March delivery rose 18 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $59.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close since Dec. 29. Futures touched $60.80, the highest intraday price since Jan. 3. Prices are 1.5 percent higher this week and 4.4 percent lower than a year ago.

News reports from Dow Jones and other organizations said Nigeria was planning to cut as much as 300,000 barrels a day in March.

``What we're going to do is what OPEC has asked us to do,'' Levi Ajuonuma, spokesman for Nigerian National Petroleum Corp., said in an interview from Abuja. ``Nothing more.''

OPEC pledged to cut 500,000 barrels of oil a day from supplies starting this month, on top of a 1.2 million barrel-a- day reduction on Nov. 1.

Oil Supplies

``There have been a number of stories that demonstrate that oil supplies aren't to be taken for granted,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. ``The Occidental field was shut down yesterday, the Hibernia field in Canada is also shut, there are problems with the Cantarell field and Norwegian production is declining.''

Output at Exxon Mobil Corp.'s Hibernia field in Canada will be closed from mid-February for as much as four weeks as it undergoes its biggest maintenance program in five years, a company spokeswoman said Feb. 7.

Production at the field, located offshore Newfoundland, has been hampered since Jan. 2, when a fuel valve failed in a generator and reduced power needed for production. Daily oil output in January averaged about 120,000 barrels, down from about 180,000 previously, the company said.

Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico's state-owned oil company, said output will drop 15 percent this year at Cantarell, the world's third-largest oil field, said Chief Executive Officer Jesus Reyes Heroles on Feb. 7. Output at Cantarell in the Gulf of Campeche will fall to 1.53 million barrels per day in 2007, said Reyes Heroles. Cantarell produced 1.79 million barrels per day in 2006.

Norway dropped to fifth place among the world's crude-oil exporters last year as the nation's North Sea production declined, the Norwegian energy ministry said.

Cold Weather

Mild weather in December and early January helped push New York futures to $49.90 a barrel on Jan. 18, the lowest since May 25, 2005. The arrival of colder weather has helped drive prices higher this month.

``The weather along the Northeast will moderate over the weekend and we should see near-normal highs on Monday,'' said Dale Mohler, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. ``The relative warmth will last only one day and temperatures will trend back down Tuesday. We will soon see temperatures that are 12 to 15 degrees below normal.''

The normal high temperature in New York at this time of year is 39 degrees Fahrenheit (4 Celsius) and 27 degrees Fahrenheit is the normal low, according to the National Weather Service.

The Northeast

Home-heating demand in the Northeast, the region responsible for 80 percent of U.S. heating-oil use, will be 23 percent above normal for the next week, said Weather Derivatives, a forecaster in Belton, Missouri. The National Weather Service predicted that below

[Crypto Crude]

Going on advice from Arthur Lim...
he said that oil prices will remain around $60 over the medium term....
he said there will be times when oil falls to around 50, and times when oil goes higher....
but 60 is the benchmark.... 60 is OPECs equilibrium....
[8D]
.^sc

[Mick100]

Commercial traders are going long crude oil
This set-up looks very bullish to me

Expect oil price to continue increasing in the immediate future

http://www.buythebottom.com/cot_char...cot_chart.html
.

[Mick100]

Most of the oilers have been going up in price over the past month or so. This could be signalling another sustained increase in the price of crude. Thats what I'm thinking.
,

[airedale]

I hear what you are saying, Mick, but that sounds like putting the cart before the horse.

[Mick100]

I hold a few STO (santos) shares airedale
They hit a low of around $9.00 earlier this yr. They're back up over $13.00 today
There's some big money buying oil stocks at the moment. I'v noticed that the shares of commodity type companies often move in price before the commodity itself - both to the upside and the downside. It will be interesting to see what happens to the price of crude over the next 6 - 12 months.
.