Crude Oil

[JBmurc]

IMHO alot of buyers are getting set for the US summer driving season lots of fuel hungry SUV's burning up more of the world most abused resource-I read somewhere awhile ago that the US defence forces are using over 60mbbl crude oil each yr in there opts.
-I think alot of the buying back into the WPL,STO etc is investors coming back from the recent fall in oil prices which in the long term picture is just a speedbump onto higher prices
remember during that speed bump all the so called experts&analyst talking the demise of Bulltrend in Oil with long term prices to go under $50 then to $40 and the only reason the prices were higher was the terror premium.

[Crypto Crude]

Iraqi oil missing-
article... Billions of dollars worth of Iraqs declared oil production over the past four years is unaccounted for.

Between 100,000 and 300,000 barrels of Iraqs daily output of 2 million barrels is missing, possibly having being siphoned off through corruption or smuggling, the New York Times reports.

The discrepancy was valued between 5million dollars and 15million dollars per day...

These countrys are funked once their oil reserves are depleted...
include to this list all African nations, Nigeria... Middle east...
Maybe if these countrys had their fingers glued together then the dosh wouldnt slip through so easily...
[8D]
.^sc

[Mick100]

Saudi oil production in decline?

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2331
,

[JBmurc]

12/06
BP boss says oil prices will fall

Lord Browne has overseen a period of powerful growth at BP
Lord Browne, the chief executive of oil firm BP, has said he expects crude prices to fall from current near-record levels as more supplies are discovered.
However Lord Browne, speaking in an interview with German magazine Der Spiegel, said there was not likely to be any dip in prices in the short term.

He said prices will probably settle at an average of about $40 a barrel in the medium term, before falling lower.

Yeah right-like I've been saying $100bbl is more likely than $40bbl
buy into the oil&energy sector while there's still some bargins from July onwards I believe this sector will be #1 to outperform on the ASX

Bargin buys checkout my(oil sector sell-off post)

P.S-Got 150k to be invested next couple weeks 80% will be in the oil%energy sector(total portfilo 70% oil&energy)

[JBmurc]

Rogers Says Oil Will Rise to $100 After `Correction' (Update6)

By Wendy Pugh and Yasumasa Song

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Oil will resume its march toward $100 a barrel after a ``correction,'' said Jim Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999.

``I'm just not smart enough to know how far down it will go and how long it will stay, but I do know that within the context of the bull market, oil will go over $100,'' Rogers said in a Tokyo interview. ``It will go over $150. Whether that is in 2009 or 2013, I don't have a clue, but I know it's going to happen.''

Crude oil in New York has fallen 34 percent to a 19-month low since it peaked at a record $78.40 a barrel in July. Rogers, author of ``Hot Commodities,'' has said oil will keep rising because there hasn't been a major discovery for 30 years and economic growth in China and across Asia is driving up demand.

Rogers, 64, who created a series of commodities indexes and foresees a long-term bull market in oil, metals and grains, said he hadn't changed his positive view. The Rogers International Commodity Index, which more than doubled in the past five years, has dropped 13 percent in six months on a total return basis.

``When you have big bull markets, 50 percent corrections, or retractions, are normal,'' he said in an interview yesterday. ``It has often happened throughout history in a bull market.''

Oil for February delivery fell 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $52.08 a barrel in New York today as of 11:06 a.m. London time. It earlier rose as much as 41 cents to $52.65.

Lasting Correction

Rogers, in Tokyo to speak about commodities at an event organized by commodity futures trader Yutaka Shoji Co., said some corrections could last as long as two years, as happened to gold after a run-up in prices in the 1970s.

``Corrections go down long enough to scare everybody out and make sure they give up, and then they turn around,'' he said. ``We are in a secular bull market for commodities which has another decade or two to go.''

Crude oil will certainly rise above $100 a barrel before the bull market reaches an end, Rogers, who is chairman of Beeland Interests Inc., said in July after prices reached a record during fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

He said corn, wheat and nickel had performed strongly even as the weighting given to oil dragged down the overall Rogers International Commodity Index.

Rogers doesn't buy individual commodities on the advice of his lawyers. He said he recently bought the Rogers Agriculture Index to benefit from surging grain demand. The index has fallen 0.5 percent this year on a total return basis.

He said he favored investment in non-U.S. dollar currencies, and had bought airline shares.

``The only airline where I'm losing money in the last year is Japan Airlines,'' he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Wendy Pugh in Tokyo at wpugh@bloomberg.net ; Yasumasa Song in Tokyo at

[airedale]

Hi JB, that's an iteresting report from Jim Rogers, but it is dated Jan.19th.
Why post it again tonight?

[Mick100]

Hi JB, that's an iteresting report from Jim Rogers, but it is dated Jan.19th.
Why post it again tonight?

Had me confused there Murc

Another thing is - why would Jim Rogers be buying shares in airlines when he has already stated that oil is headed much higher in price. I would think that airlines are going to be the first to suffer the consequences of high fuel prices.
,

[Halebop]

For the period in question in that article oil prices had fallen but economies remained strong so Airlines were viewed somewhat positively. I'd prefer to take Buffett's advice on the matter but like any cyclical industry they can deliver amazing returns if timed right.

[JBmurc]

was att. to e-mail I recieved from CWA(thought it was only couple months old) was also amazed why Jim would be holding airline shares when airlines main cost was fuel esp. if it reached $100

[lakedaemonian]

was att. to e-mail I recieved from CWA(thought it was only couple months old) was also amazed why Jim would be holding airline shares when airlines main cost was fuel esp. if it reached $100

To me it sounds quite odd that Jim Rogers would be investing in airline stocks for the following reasons:

1.)He has made repeated claims of being terrible at predicting the short-term, but doing a pretty good job of predicting the long-term trend(which is probably quite bad for all airline stocks) and investing accordingly.

2.) The financial health of airlines is dependant upon cheap or reasonably cheap energy, regardless of how efficient an airline may be(even the likes of a very efficient airline like Southwest Airlines in the US). Jim Rogers has been calling for energy prices to climb significantly going forward so why would be invest in something that would get crushed if his long-term prediction is true.

3.) Excepting China, I recall Jim Rogers saying he's putting his money where his mouth is by investing mostly in commodities as he believes equity markets will get killed while commodity markets will continue to surge for the next decade or so.

Sounds fishy.....anyone have any links to verifying Rogers investment in airline equities?

Everything I've read on him in the last 5-6 years since his visit to NZ in 2001 says China, Commodities, anti-US Dollar, pro-Yuan is all he cares about.