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Thread: Crude Oil

  1. #121
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    Thumbs up crude oil price heading higher

    COT report

    commercial traders net short positions:
    7/08/07 net short 117500
    14/08/07 net short 85700
    21/08/07 net short 42600

    obviously commercial traders (the hedgers) don't think demand for oil is going to diminish in the near future. They have reduced their short positions by almost 2/3 over the past three wks, ie they are closing their short positions - they don't think the oil price is going lower.
    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  2. #122
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    Thumbs up Cot report - still bullish

    Commercial (hedgers) net shorts positions
    7/08/07 net short 117500
    14/08/07 net short 85700
    21/08/07 net short 42600
    28/08/07 net short 25000

    these figures are current to the tueday of each week - not friday (they are published on friday) Next week's cot report will be interesting - will see if, or to what extent, the commercials are increasing their shorts on the strengthening oil price.
    Certainly looks as though prices are headed higher in the medium term - might crack $80 - third time lucky!
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  3. #123
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    Default Oil up & Opec doesn't care nomore nomore $80 soon

    Oil Rises in New York on Storm, Signs OPEC Won't Lift Output

    By Grant Smith

    Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose from a four-week high in New York as a hurricane roared through the Caribbean Sea and OPEC ministers said the group won't increase production.

    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will maintain existing output targets when it meets Sept. 11, the Algerian and Qatari oil ministers said. Hurricane Felix is on a westerly path that could reach Mexico's Cantarell, the world's third-largest oil field, by the end of this week.

    ``It all paints a picture of tight market supply,'' said Thina Saltvedt, an analyst at Nordea Bank in Oslo. ``The supply side will be tight in the fourth quarter if OPEC doesn't increase production.'' Hurricanes Dean and now Felix sparked concern over the rest of the Atlantic storm season, she said.

    Crude oil for October delivery climbed 27 cents to $74.31 a barrel at 3:36 p.m. in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded as high as $74.60, the highest since Aug. 6. It settled at $74.04 at the end of last week, a four-week closing high. Floor trading on the New York exchange was closed today for Labor Day.

    Brent crude oil for October settlement was at $73.41 a barrel, up 72 cents, or 1 percent, on the London-based ICE Futures Exchange. It rose 1.1 percent on Aug. 31.

    OPEC, whose member nations supply more than 40 percent of the world's oil, will keep its current targets during the fourth quarter because the market is well-supplied with crude, Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil said in an interview in Algiers. Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah said no change was necessary.

    OPEC Outlook

    ``OPEC, regardless of what they decide to do, will probably expand production'' by about 200,000 barrels a day, said Francisco Blanch, the head of commodities research at Merrill Lynch & Co. ``I don't think inventories are very well equipped to deal with a cold start to the winter.''

    Felix had 145-mile-per-hour winds, making it a Category 4 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, as it made its way across the Caribbean toward an expected landfall in Central America tomorrow, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on its Web site at about 2 p.m. Miami time. It was centered about 305 miles (491 kilometers) east of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Honduras-Nicaragua border. The storm may pass through the Yucatan Peninsula, then enter the southern Gulf of Mexico.

    ``It's a very strong hurricane, but the track is still uncertain,'' said Olivier Jakob, managing director at Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland. ``It is still too early to have full confidence that it will track to the Mexican Bay of Campeche oil fields.''

    Katrina

    Oil prices jumped to a then-record $70.85 a barrel on Aug. 30, 2005, after Hurricane Katrina wrecked rigs and platforms in the Gulf.

    The Hurricane Center's forecast puts Felix on a more southerly course than Dean, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. Dean struck Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Aug. 21, then crossed the peninsula into the Gulf. Mexico's oil production was cut by almost 2.7 million barrels a day. More than 80 percent of production was restored by Aug. 25.

    New York oil prices have fallen 5.7 percent from the record $78.77 a barrel reached on Aug. 1. Prices declined as U.S. gasoline demand waned and prices dropped in the U.S. equity and credit markets. Turmoil in the financial markets threatened to ripple through the economy, slowing growth and weakening demand for energy in the world's largest oil consumer.

    The U.S. Federal Reserve will probably lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth at its Sept. 18 meeting, drawing commodity funds back to the oil market, said Nordea's Saltvedt.

    Hedge fund managers and other large speculators cut their bets on rising oil prices for a fourth week, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data published Aug. 31.

    Net-long positions, the difference between contracts to buy and sell oil, fell 38 percent to 25,178 contracts in the week ended Aug. 28, the lowest in six months.
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  4. #124
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    Default

    www.energybulletin.net

    Iraq, oil, law and order.

    Took me an hour to read but it does contain a lot of history.

    You can see why Bush ( and Blair..read BP ) wanted this 'prize'

    They are not going to get it easily.

  5. #125
    Advanced Member airedale's Avatar
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    Default Energybulletin.net

    What a read, Bermuda. The next few weeks/months will be most critical for the Yanks. Perhaps the Brits have a good reason for winding down in Basra.

  6. #126
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    Default Writing on the wall for the US

    Nippon Oil to buy Iran oil in yen

    Exporting oil provides a vital source of revenue for Iran

    Japanese firm Nippon Oil is to start paying for Iranian oil in yen, rather than in US dollars.
    The first payments to be made in the new currency for crude oil contracts will take place in October.
    Iran has been increasingly selling oil in currencies other than the US dollar, which has fallen in value.
    Iran, the fourth-biggest oil exporter, has made the shift in the light of political differences with the US over its nuclear programme.
    While Iran says the project is for civilian purposes only, the US argues it is to develop nuclear weapons.
    Last year, Iran inserted a clause into oil contracts enabling it to require payment in currency other than the US dollar. Iran and other countries that rely heavily on oil exports have been hard hit by the decline in the dollar's value. The move is not intended to change the original value of the oil contracts being traded.

  7. #127
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    Thumbs up COT report - looking good

    Commercial (hedgers) net shorts positions
    7/08/07 net short 117500
    14/08/07 net short 85700
    21/08/07 net short 42600
    28/08/07 net short 25000
    4/09/07 net short 34500

    Commercials have increased net short positions this week - but not by much taking into account the rise in oil from 70 to $75. Looks like $80 oil will be tested in the near furure.
    .
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  8. #128
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    OPEC May Reject Calls for More Supply With Oil at $76 (Update2)

    By Maher Chmaytelli and Fred Pals



    Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, the producer of 40 percent of the world's oil, may reject consumer calls to increase supplies and lower prices from $76 a barrel on concern energy demand will falter as U.S. economic growth slows.
    Oil ministers for Algeria, Iran, Libya, Qatar and Venezuela said in the past week they support keeping the quota at 25.845 million barrels a day until December. OPEC President Mohamed al- Hamli, who is also the United Arab Emirates oil minister, said yesterday markets are ``adequately supplied.''
    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet Sept. 11 at its Vienna headquarters to determine production targets for the fourth quarter, when heating fuel sales peak.
    Oil rose 40 cents, or 0.5 percent to close at $76.60 a barrel today on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have risen 26 percent this year, as 10 of the group's 12 members curtailed exports to drain inventories.
    ``I fear that OPEC has set implicitly a new target price of about $70 a barrel,'' said Claude Mandil in an interview on Aug. 30, his last day as director of the International Energy Agency, which advises 26 of the world's biggest oil-consuming nations. ``I deplore this because it weighs on the global economy and it's a burden for the poorest people.''
    The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development lowered its forecasts for economic growth this year in the U.S. and Europe on Sept. 5. The group cut its forecast for the U.S. to 1.9 percent from a May figure of 2.1 percent and for the 13 nations sharing the euro to 2.6 percent from 2.7 percent.
    Half a Trillion
    OPEC may make $530 billion next year from oil exports, up from $508 billion this year and $506 billion in 2006, according to Leo Drollas, the deputy director of the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London.
    OPEC forecasts world oil demand will expand by 1.34 million barrels a day next year, or 1.6 percent, to 87.06 million barrels a day.
    ``I assure you that if there's any shortage we will supply more crude to the market, but I think the market is really stable at this time,'' OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said in an Aug. 28 interview in Luanda, Angola.
    Members are pumping more than their agreement allows. The 10 members with quotas produced 26.71 million barrels a day last month, or about 860,000 barrels a day more than targeted, according to Bloomberg estimates. The planned cutback, agreed to in two meetings late last year, was 1.7 million barrels a day.
    ``OPEC is already dealing with its dilemma by gradually leaking more oil onto the market,'' said Adam Sieminski, Deutsche Bank's chief energy economist in New York.
    Iraq, Angola
    Iraq is allowed to export as much as possible to rebuild its oil industry after two wars. OPEC's newest participant, Angola, hasn't been assigned a limit. Crude output from all 12 OPEC members was 30.33 million barrels a day last month.
    El-Badri said the 10 members with quotas have completed about 60 percent of their promised cutback and that any level above 65 percent would be ``fine.'' The organization hasn't set an official price target since abandoning a $22- to $28-a-barrel range in 2003, following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.
    Ramon Espinasa, the former chief economist at state-run Petroleos de Venezuela SA, said OPEC members are content with prices and will seek a ``low profile'' meeting next week. He's now an economist at the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington.
    Sub-Prime Worry
    Indonesia, the only OPEC member recommending an increase in supplies, pays government subsidies on domestic fuel sales and imports crude to meet demand. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer, hasn't stated its position yet.
    An increase in U.S. mortgage defaults by sub-prime borrowers would become a concern for oil producers if it causes ``a recession,'' Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said.
    Libya's top oil official, Shokri Ghanem, said in a Sept. 4 interview that OPEC's record revenue is offsetting the weakness of the U.S. dollar, higher development costs and losses from the late 1990s, when demand sagged because of the financial crisis in Asia.
    ``OPEC keeps saying that there is sufficient supply,'' said Ingrid Angermann, an economist at Dresdner Bank AG said in an interview in Frankfurt today. ``At $76 a barrel, I don't see any sign of sufficient supply.''
    To contact the reporter on this story: Maher Chmaytelli in Nicosia on mchmaytelli@bloomberg.net ; Fred Pals in Amsterdam at fpals@bloomberg.net
    Last Updated: September 7, 2007 18:12 EDT

  9. #129
    Member Heavy Metal's Avatar
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    Default Crude oil at annual cyclical high?

    Almost every year in the past decade the oil price has peaked around this time of year.

    Can't see it any being any different this time as OPEC starts cranking up oil supply, the USA driving/hurricane season winds up and there is the potential (if the effects of the credit crunch spreads) of reduced demand.

    Time to take profits in oil producers and buy back around Xmas time methinks.

  10. #130
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    I am trying to analyze some well data below, what does CP and CK mean?



    MCF 263
    Cond trace of oil
    Water 235
    CP 170#
    CK 40

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