sharetrader
Page 2 of 24 FirstFirst 12345612 ... LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 349

Thread: Crude Oil

  1. #16
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    , , Australia.
    Posts
    399

    Default

    Cheers, Arco.

  2. #17
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    199

    Default

    Oil to drop to $US35 next year: Forbes
    http://smh.com.au/articles/2005/08/3...302549456.html

    BHP Billiton CEO expects oil to fall
    http://smh.com.au/articles/2005/08/3...302608530.html

    Seems the 'smart money'[?] on this one is forecasting a fall. Personally I have no idea and don't try and forecast future commodity prices in the short term as there are too many outside unknown factors but one thing that cannot be denied and can be quantified is that demand is outstripping supply. I would prefer to take a 'random walk' on this and feel it could go either way
    The more I learn, the more I realise I don\'t know!!

  3. #18
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,146

    Default

    quote:Originally posted by Long Strangle

    quote:Originally posted by Mick100


    That's what I'm thinking Packers

    I expect the price to go back down to the low 50's over the next couple of months

    ,
    Absolutely on way this is going back down to the low 50s this year or next. All date points to it holding current highs, and possible making further highs. Would love to see some research behind your statement.

    I should add that medium/long term i think oil is heading higher but short term I expect a pullback

    Have you heard of the oil indicator? (stephen Leeb)
    It shows that,in the past, if oil rises in price by 80% or more in a 12 month period the result will be a world wide reccession which in turn leads to a drop in demand for oil and thus, lower prices.
    Oil is up over 60% in the last 12 months so it's time to be cautious in my opinion. If oil goes much higher in this run-up I will concider bailing out of my oilers. I hope that I'm right and oil pulls back in price short term.

    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  4. #19
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    , , Cayman Islands.
    Posts
    16

    Default

    I have just finished reading Matthew Simmons book "twilight in the desert" and would recommend it as required reading to all those interested or invested in the oil sector.

    It raises a number of questions as to the ability of Saudi Arabia to meet oil demand going forward as well as the high probability that we are close to these fields peaking out.

    I would rate this book 10/10.
    <center>\"I strive to bring glory to the mother country\"</center>

  5. #20
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,146

    Default


    Oil below $63 as high prices crimp demand
    Mon Sep 12, 2005 11:40 AM ET
    Printer Friendly | Email Article | Reprints

    By Peg Mackey
    LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices slumped below $63 a barrel on Monday as signs of a slowdown in global petroleum demand growth countered the struggle to restart U.S. oil facilities after Hurricane Katrina.

    U.S. crude was off $1.23 at $62.85 a barrel. Crude is now $8 below the record high of $70.85 struck on August 30. London Brent crude slipped $1.24 to $61.60.

    Forecasts are that Katrina's destruction could shave 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points off U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter, further undermining fuel demand just as high prices hit consumption.

    "For the first time, traders have to worry about demand," said Gary Ross, chief executive of U.S. energy consultancy PIRA Energy.

    "There's no doubt there is evidence of demand destruction emerging everywhere. U.S. gasoline data over the next few weeks will show the effect of high oil prices on demand."

    High prices are also eating into Asian oil consumption growth. The International Energy Agency last week has cut its projection for China growth this year by 100,000 bpd to 220,000 bpd. Traders are seeking to move surplus petroleum products from Asia to Atlantic Basin markets.

    China's annual consumer price inflation unexpectedly slowed to 1.3 percent in August from 1.8 percent in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. The figure was the lowest since September 2003.

    The IEA last week revised down its forecast for world oil demand growth this year by 250,000 bpd to 1.35 million bpd, compared to 2.9 million bpd last year.
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  6. #21
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,146

    Default


    Arco

    What are your thoughts on oil ATM

    I heard someone talking about a head and shoulder pattern forming a few days ago

    cheers
    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  7. #22
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,878

    Default

    Mick

    Yes there is a possible H&S in the making but the price would have to break circa 63.30 and test that polarity change before it could be confirmed.

    Should that scenario play out oil could drop to between $53-57, but a reversal north at that point could be bullish again because it would complete a Gartley pattern.

    arco




    ___________________


    ___________________

  8. #23
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Christchurch, , .
    Posts
    2,467

    Default

    Arco,
    The following major issues are affecting the price of crude oil

    1.Increasing demand versus struggling supply.The supply gap is now down to 1 million bbls per day on a 84 million per day usage.There used to be a gap of 5 million bbls per day.

    2.Iraq has had its oil infrastructure decimated and is without a plan to return production to former levels.

    3.Non Opec oil supplies have peaked and are now diminishing.e.g North Sea Oil is in a 10% decline as is Prudhoe Bay in Alaska.And turning to gas there will be huge problems for the UK this winter.Terrible planning has reduced gas supplies to 5 days.(Heads will roll believe me)

    4.There is unrest in Nigeria which currently produces about 2.5 million bbls per day.

    5.There is huge and growing demand for light sweet crude.Even Saudi Arabia admit light sweet crude peaked in 2000

    6.There is insufficient refinery capacity especially in the USA to meet demand.The US havent built a new refinery for 30 years.

    7.Opec members are still refusing to supply accurate data on their reserves...,especially the largest producer Saudi Arabia.Many,including such authorities as Matthew Simmons believe their reserves are vastly overstated and that some of their major fields are in decline already.

    8.The Saud Royal Family are under increasing pressure from Islamists to oust Westerners.Once this happens look out.Oil could easily go to $200/bbl overnight.

    9.Iran is under new leadership and already is picking a fight with the USA.Not only with respect to restarting their Nuclear programme but also they plan to convert their oil trade to Euros next March.Saddam Hussein tried the same thing and got invaded 3 months later.

    10.China and India are increasing thir oil consumption at up to 20% per annum.Each day China puts another 10,000 cars on the road.China has actively been out sourcing oil from Iran and Venezuela and elsewhere.In fact they put in a bid for a large American oil company .

    11.Changing weather patterns have brought and wrought havoc to the Rigs
    and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Better stop now.I am a real joy germ eh?

    What part of Bermuda are you from?

  9. #24
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,146

    Default


    Bermuda, arco is referring to the short term
    This is also what I am interesrd in ATM
    Med/long term I am bullish on oil for many of the reasons you mention plus some.
    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  10. #25
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    AUD.NZD
    Posts
    2,878

    Default


    Hi Bermuda

    My post was basically regarding the possibility of a Head and Shoulders that Mick mentioned.

    The H&S pattern is not confirmed as yet, but I gave the likely scenario if it should eventuate.

    Anyone interested can read about these patterns here.....

    http://www.chartpatterns.com/invtdhe...lderschrts.htm

    arco




    ___________________


    ___________________

  11. #26
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    , , Australia.
    Posts
    399

    Default

    Nice to see the Bermudans sticking together. Hope this hurricane season was nice for you: another hurricane or three might turn the head and shoulders into a shoulder, a head and goitre with a mean elevation of 88 degrees.

  12. #27
    Member Krustytheclown's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Hamilton, New Zealand.
    Posts
    40

    Default

    Interesting oil debate you guys have going.

    All the true and forboding points you covered Bermuda...(very well summarised!) are a great reason to remain well invested in Oil and GAS.....Iran/Saudi are major potential flashpoints that I would expect to play out over the next two years....

    Anyone have any "soon to produce" Aussie juniour oilers with gas interests in the USA...other than Neo/Opl/Azz???
    US gas price is forcast by some to reach US$16-20 MCF by Xmas.

    G.
    Run with the Bull, leave the Bear to do it's business in the woods!

  13. #28
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,146

    Default

    GREGOR

    FAR is worth a look - very good drilling program
    VPE is making good headway in the US
    I also hold PSA which has been increasing production at a good rate over yhe past couple of yrs
    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  14. #29
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    , , Australia.
    Posts
    399

    Default

    STX is about to drill for gas starting next month I'm led to believe, Gregor. There are a heap of them, FAR, NWE....shysa, can only come up with two but there are defo more. Planet Gas is one, think its PGS. Pacrim I think (PRE), LOU is another. Can't think of anymore.

  15. #30
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    , , Australia.
    Posts
    399

    Default

    Yes Petsec is a cracker, Mick. Well done for getting aboard.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •