Crude Oil

[ronthepom]

I wonder what Bush's next move is?

Its not far from Iraq to Iran is it ?

[bermuda]

Its not far from Iraq to Iran is it ?

His ego is so big he would probably try it.What a yanker.

[boysy]

Do people honestly think Bush will attack iran he wouldnt dare. imagine what his advisers are telling him about the affordability of oil now just imagine what attaking iran would do to that scenario. Bush may want to attack iran but honestly all he could do is bomb iran and what would that achieve not even bush is stupid enough to attack iran with current oil prices and instability in the region.

[shasta]

Do people honestly think Bush will attack iran he wouldnt dare. imagine what his advisers are telling him about the affordability of oil now just imagine what attaking iran would do to that scenario. Bush may want to attack iran but honestly all he could do is bomb iran and what would that achieve not even bush is stupid enough to attack iran with current oil prices and instability in the region.

You're giving ol GWB far too much credit, he probably is stupid enough to do it.

Of course he'll be clutching the flag of the USA, hand on heart & calling them (Iranians) terrorists & reminding the people of 9/11 etc etc.

Just make sure you have your quota of oil stocks when it happens...

[bermuda]

Do people honestly think Bush will attack iran he wouldnt dare. imagine what his advisers are telling him about the affordability of oil now just imagine what attaking iran would do to that scenario. Bush may want to attack iran but honestly all he could do is bomb iran and what would that achieve not even bush is stupid enough to attack iran with current oil prices and instability in the region.

Boysy

I hope your right mate. Man, this guy is unbelievable. He gets away with murder.

[airedale]

This should be on Mick's commodity thread, but I will post it here as well.
I have been reading the National Geographic Magazine for June 2004. There is an article on the price of oil. They have looked at the oil input in to US farming. There is a picture of a beef cow, and beside the cow is a stack of 44 gallon or 200 litre drums full of oil. To raise the cow to market stage takes five drums of oil, about 1,000 litres for everything from fertilizers to tractor fuel.
A pound of beef takes 3/4 of a gallon of oil to produce.
And that was three and a half years ago.

[shane_m]

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has suggested an end to the trading of oil in US dollars, calling the currency "a worthless piece of paper".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7101050.stm

[Mick100]

[quote=Mick100;173455][quote=Mick100;172436][quote=Mick100;171491][quote=Mick100;170570][quote=Mick100;169708][quote=Mick100;167752][quote=Mick100;166946]Commercial (hedgers) net shorts positions

price open interest
7/08/07 net short 117500 71.50
14/08/07 net short 85700 72.00
21/08/07 net short 42600 71.00
28/08/07 net short 25000 74.00
4/09/07 net short 34500 77.00
11/09/07 net short 36000 77.50
18/09/07 net short 44500 81.00
25/09/07 net short 45300 79.50

2/10/07 net short 59500 80.00
9/10/07 net short 66000 80.26
16/10/07 net short 78000 87.61
23/10/07 net short 60000 85.27 1,408,000
30/10/07 net short 77400 90.38 1,448,000
06/11/07 net short 84000 96.70 1,513,000
13/11/07 net short 23000 91.17 1,445.000
20/11/07 net short 29000 95.00 1,398,000
27/11/07 net short 54000 94.42 1,494,400

commercials added 34000 short and added 8500 long for an increase in net short of 25500

Looks like crude is taking a breather here
I don't believe this run up in the crude price is over yet
Next week's COT report will tell the story -

[Mick100]

[quote=Mick100;175583][quote=Mick100;173455][quote=Mick100;172436][quote=Mick100;171491][quote=Mick100;170570][quote=Mick100;169708][quote=Mick100;167752][quote=Mick100;166946]Commercial (hedgers) net shorts positions

price open interest
7/08/07 net short 117500 71.50
14/08/07 net short 85700 72.00
21/08/07 net short 42600 71.00
28/08/07 net short 25000 74.00
4/09/07 net short 34500 77.00
11/09/07 net short 36000 77.50
18/09/07 net short 44500 81.00
25/09/07 net short 45300 79.50

2/10/07 net short 59500 80.00
9/10/07 net short 66000 80.26
16/10/07 net short 78000 87.61
23/10/07 net short 60000 85.27 1,408,000
30/10/07 net short 77400 90.38 1,448,000
06/11/07 net short 84000 96.70 1,513,000
13/11/07 net short 23000 91.17 1,445.000
20/11/07 net short 29000 95.00 1,398,000
27/11/07 net short 54000 94.42 1,494,400
04/12/07 net short 45000 88.32 1.382,500
11/12/07 net short 38000 90.02 1.381,000

oil still in this high level consolidation pattern
With commercial net shorts declining again it look's likely that oil will break to the upside rather than the downside of this consolidation

Global inventories are declining (not just US)
Can OPEC increase output?
A while back they said they were going to increase output by 500,00 bbls per day. In actual fact, OPEC output has fallen by 180,000 bbls per day since october

[bermuda]

Interesting eh?

My bet is that the Saudi's are going flat out just to maintain production.

They have spent billions in the last 2 years securing every rig they can get their hands on.

Reason: Their established oil fields are in decline.

Q.E.D