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Thread: Crude Oil

  1. #201
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    [quote=Mick100;177108][quote=Mick100;175583][quote=Mick100;173455][quote=Mick100;172436][quote=Mick100;171491][quote=Mick100;170570][quote=Mick100;169708][quote=Mick100;167752][quote=Mick100;166946]Commercial (hedgers) net shorts positions
    price open interest
    7/08/07 net short 117500 71.50
    14/08/07 net short 85700 72.00
    21/08/07 net short 42600 71.00
    28/08/07 net short 25000 74.00
    4/09/07 net short 34500 77.00
    11/09/07 net short 36000 77.50
    18/09/07 net short 44500 81.00
    25/09/07 net short 45300 79.50
    2/10/07 net short 59500 80.00
    9/10/07 net short 66000 80.26
    16/10/07 net short 78000 87.61
    23/10/07 net short 60000 85.27 1,408,000
    30/10/07 net short 77400 90.38 1,448,000
    06/11/07 net short 84000 96.70 1,513,000
    13/11/07 net short 23000 91.17 1,445.000
    20/11/07 net short 29000 95.00 1,398,000
    27/11/07 net short 54000 94.42 1,494,400
    04/12/07 net short 45000 88.32 1.382,500
    11/12/07 net short 38000 90.02 1.381,000
    18/12/07 netshort 29125 90,08 1,330,250
    24/12/07 net short 51000 94.13 1,326.000
    31/12/07 net short 85100 95.98 1,361 000

    net shorts increased significantly over the last two weeks
    Looking less likely to break through 100 and stay above that level now

    Might have to wait until the summer driving season to see a susained break above $100 - that's assuming there is not a severe reccession in the US. A mild reccession in the US will not lead to a drop off in global demand IMO.
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  2. #202
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    Mike100
    Do you have access to the accuracy of past NET SHORTS .It is easy to see the theory of why oil should rise if net shorts decrease ,but over many years how accurate is this ??
    digger

  3. #203
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    Default commercials

    Quote Originally Posted by digger View Post
    Mike100
    Do you have access to the accuracy of past NET SHORTS .It is easy to see the theory of why oil should rise if net shorts decrease ,but over many years how accurate is this ??
    I don't have much in the way of data myself but others such as larry williams have decades of data to back up this approach to futures trading

    I'v read a few books explaining the different methods of people operating in the futures markets and Larry Williams is the only author who made any sense to me. The only system that I can relate to is to watch the industry insiders (the commercials) If you don't believe that industry insiders know more than the other traders/speculators in a given market then net commercial positions are meaningless to you

    The commercials are not in the market to make a profit - they are there to hedge their future production or future buying requirements. At the moment there appear to be plenty of oil producers happy to sell their oil at 95 to 100. If they expected oil to go to 125 next month they wouldn't be selling at 95 today

    I use the COT reports as a short/medium term leading indicator to get some idea of the short term price movements - long term I'm bullish on oil
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  4. #204
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    Thanks for the quick reply Mick 100. Apperciated. Will look up this Larry Williams book.Better still anyone got the book they would now want to sell? Heavens knows i have had more than a few books on last house move ended up chucking out when other could have used them.
    digger

  5. #205
    SRV is a God STRAT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bermuda View Post
    I wonder what Bush's next move is?
    To retire and go down in history as the most shameful President yet, a lier, a twit and the man who in two terms in office managed to get more people to hate America than any other in history.
    Last edited by STRAT; 07-01-2008 at 09:22 AM.

  6. #206
    Advanced Member airedale's Avatar
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    Default Garfield

    Subject: Fw: [Garfield on the oil crisis]

    My American cousin keeps me informed.









    Garfield on the oil crisis






    A lot of folks can't understand how we came



    To have an oil shortage here in our country.



    ~~~



    Well, there's a very simple answer.



    ~~~



    Nobody bothered to check the oil.



    ~~~



    We just didn't know we were getting low.



    ~~~



    The reason for that is purely geographical.



    ~~~



    Our OIL is located in



    ~~~



    Alaska



    ~~~



    California



    ~~~



    Coastal Florida



    ~~~



    Coastal Louisiana



    ~~~



    Kansas



    ~~~



    Oklahoma



    ~~~



    Pennsylvania



    And



    Texas



    ~~~



    Our



    DIPSTICKS



    Are located in



    Washington , DC !!!



    Any Questions ???



    NO? I didn't Think So.
































  7. #207
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    [quote=Mick100;179432][quote=Mick100;177108][quote=Mick100;175583][quote=Mick100;173455][quote=Mick100;172436][quote=Mick100;171491][quote=Mick100;170570][quote=Mick100;169708][quote=Mick100;167752][quote=Mick100;166946]Commercial (hedgers) net shorts positions
    price open interest
    7/08/07 net short 117500 71.50
    14/08/07 net short 85700 72.00
    21/08/07 net short 42600 71.00
    28/08/07 net short 25000 74.00
    4/09/07 net short 34500 77.00
    11/09/07 net short 36000 77.50
    18/09/07 net short 44500 81.00
    25/09/07 net short 45300 79.50
    2/10/07 net short 59500 80.00
    9/10/07 net short 66000 80.26
    16/10/07 net short 78000 87.61
    23/10/07 net short 60000 85.27 1,408,000
    30/10/07 net short 77400 90.38 1,448,000
    06/11/07 net short 84000 96.70 1,513,000
    13/11/07 net short 23000 91.17 1,445.000
    20/11/07 net short 29000 95.00 1,398,000
    27/11/07 net short 54000 94.42 1,494,400
    04/12/07 net short 45000 88.32 1.382,500
    11/12/07 net short 38000 90.02 1.381,000
    18/12/07 netshort 29125 90,08 1,330,250
    24/12/07 net short 51000 94.13 1,326.000
    31/12/07 net short 85100 95.98 1,361 000
    08/01/08 net short 100500 96.33 1,414,000
    15/01/08 net short 91000 91.90 1.458.000
    22/01/08 net short 38400 89.21 1,343,200
    .
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  8. #208
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    Hi Mick,

    What is your source for this info?

    Cheers - Hoags

  9. #209
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    COT reports at
    www.cftc.gov

    or more direct link
    http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/co...ders/index.htm


    light sweet oil is traded on the new york mercantile exchange
    Last edited by Mick100; 28-01-2008 at 10:50 AM.
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  10. #210
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    Great Cheers

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