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Thread: Crude Oil

  1. #211
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    [quote=Mick100;182880][quote=Mick100;179432][quote=Mick100;177108][quote=Mick100;175583][quote=Mick100;173455][quote=Mick100;172436][quote=Mick100;171491][quote=Mick100;170570][quote=Mick100;169708][quote=Mick100;167752][quote=Mick100;166946]Commercial (hedgers) net shorts positions
    price open interest
    7/08/07 net short 117500 71.50
    14/08/07 net short 85700 72.00
    21/08/07 net short 42600 71.00
    28/08/07 net short 25000 74.00
    4/09/07 net short 34500 77.00
    11/09/07 net short 36000 77.50
    18/09/07 net short 44500 81.00
    25/09/07 net short 45300 79.50
    2/10/07 net short 59500 80.00
    9/10/07 net short 66000 80.26
    16/10/07 net short 78000 87.61
    23/10/07 net short 60000 85.27 1,408,000
    30/10/07 net short 77400 90.38 1,448,000
    06/11/07 net short 84000 96.70 1,513,000
    13/11/07 net short 23000 91.17 1,445.000
    20/11/07 net short 29000 95.00 1,398,000
    27/11/07 net short 54000 94.42 1,494,400
    04/12/07 net short 45000 88.32 1.382,500
    11/12/07 net short 38000 90.02 1.381,000
    18/12/07 netshort 29125 90,08 1,330,250
    24/12/07 net short 51000 94.13 1,326.000
    31/12/07 net short 85100 95.98 1,361 000
    08/01/08 net short 100500 96.33 1,414,000
    15/01/08 net short 91000 91.90 1.458.000
    22/01/08 net short 38400 89.21 1,343,200
    29/01/07 net short 31000 91.64 1,366,000
    05/02/07 net short 25000 88.41 1,368,500
    12/02/07 net short 36900 92.78 1,393,000
    19/02/07 net short 54200 99.70 1,355.000
    26/02/07 net short 85800 100.88 1,406.000
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  2. #212
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Default $200 Oil - Who's Going to Pay For It?

    In March of 2005, Goldman Sachs kicked off the oil speculation boom by releasing a report that "Oil Could Spike to $105."
    At the time oil was around $55 a barrel, already up considerably from $25 a barrel before the Iraq war (the second one) surprisingly caused oil prices to spike.
    [Interesting note: The first Iraq war is what made our current President his first millions as he sold his stock the same month his dad invaded Iraq and spiked oil from $18 a barrel in July 1990 to $27 in August. After bankrupting his first company (aptly called Arbusto Energy), in which he was partners with Salem Bin Laden (Osama’s Father) through James Bath (who also worked with BCCI who conducted the largest bank fraud in US history while laundering gun money for George I in the 80s), Junior merged Arbusto with Spectrum 7, became the CEO and bankrupted them. Spectrum 7 was then sold to Harken with the financial help of BCCI’s Kalid bin Mahfouz, who took over for Bin Laden on his death and bought 17% of Harken in exchange for the Bush bail-out which ended up giving him 400,000 shares of Harken stock (Bush was investigated by the SEC but was cleared - how would he know his dad was going to invade Iraq?!?)...]
    Anyway, so there was no way our President could have foreseen the impact that invading Iraq (again) would have on the American economy (or his family’s extensive oil holdings) but Goldman Sachs was on top of the situation as they were the largest trader of energy derivatives. Goldman’s 2005 report cited " Thin spare capacity in the energy supply chain, and long response times for bringing on supply additions, as well as robust demand in the United States and in developing heavyweights China and India, despite the recent rapid increase in energy costs."
    Now that the mission has been accomplished at $105, Goldman (who has made record income on the massive increase in energy prices and energy trading even while losing their shirts on the other bubble, housing) has now upped the anti and is boosting their low-end range to $80 and says: "$200 a barrel could be a reality in the not-too-distant future in the case of a "major disruption"."
    This report, released Monday morning by the same guy who was right about $105 (even though he said that would be a super-spike, not the norm), drove oil to $108 a barrel in Monday’s trading and knocked the markets right off their early morning recovery and sent them back towards the 1/22 lows.
    What Goldman doesn’t explain though, is who is going to pay for this $200 a barrel oil? I pointed out to members of my site Monday afternoon that today’s $2 rise in oil prices will cost US consumers $280M next week. At 20M barrels a day of consumption, $200 a barrel oil would be $4Bn a day spent just on oil! That’s about $1Bn a day more than we’re paying now, $365Bn a year or double what Bush is dumping into the economy in order to shut us all up while oil goes over $105 a barrel while the dollar "super spikes" below 73.

    That’s right, our own US dollar finished the day today at an all-time low of 72.96, down 40% since Jan 2002 so the joke is on OPEC, who is only getting $60 worth of our 2002 currency for their $100 barrels of oil. Unfortunately, the joke is also on us as that dollar you have in your pocket is worth just 60 cents while the average American is making LESS money than he did in 2002.



    http://seekingalpha.com/article/6801..._editors_picks
    ___________________


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  3. #213
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    Quote Originally Posted by arco View Post
    In March of 2005, Goldman Sachs kicked off the oil speculation boom by releasing a report that "Oil Could Spike to $105."
    At the time oil was around $55 a barrel, already up considerably from $25 a barrel before the Iraq war (the second one) surprisingly caused oil prices to spike.
    [Interesting note: The first Iraq war is what made our current President his first millions as he sold his stock the same month his dad invaded Iraq and spiked oil from $18 a barrel in July 1990 to $27 in August. After bankrupting his first company (aptly called Arbusto Energy), in which he was partners with Salem Bin Laden (Osama’s Father) through James Bath (who also worked with BCCI who conducted the largest bank fraud in US history while laundering gun money for George I in the 80s), Junior merged Arbusto with Spectrum 7, became the CEO and bankrupted them. Spectrum 7 was then sold to Harken with the financial help of BCCI’s Kalid bin Mahfouz, who took over for Bin Laden on his death and bought 17% of Harken in exchange for the Bush bail-out which ended up giving him 400,000 shares of Harken stock (Bush was investigated by the SEC but was cleared - how would he know his dad was going to invade Iraq?!?)...]
    Anyway, so there was no way our President could have foreseen the impact that invading Iraq (again) would have on the American economy (or his family’s extensive oil holdings) but Goldman Sachs was on top of the situation as they were the largest trader of energy derivatives. Goldman’s 2005 report cited " Thin spare capacity in the energy supply chain, and long response times for bringing on supply additions, as well as robust demand in the United States and in developing heavyweights China and India, despite the recent rapid increase in energy costs."
    Now that the mission has been accomplished at $105, Goldman (who has made record income on the massive increase in energy prices and energy trading even while losing their shirts on the other bubble, housing) has now upped the anti and is boosting their low-end range to $80 and says: "$200 a barrel could be a reality in the not-too-distant future in the case of a "major disruption"."
    This report, released Monday morning by the same guy who was right about $105 (even though he said that would be a super-spike, not the norm), drove oil to $108 a barrel in Monday’s trading and knocked the markets right off their early morning recovery and sent them back towards the 1/22 lows.
    What Goldman doesn’t explain though, is who is going to pay for this $200 a barrel oil? I pointed out to members of my site Monday afternoon that today’s $2 rise in oil prices will cost US consumers $280M next week. At 20M barrels a day of consumption, $200 a barrel oil would be $4Bn a day spent just on oil! That’s about $1Bn a day more than we’re paying now, $365Bn a year or double what Bush is dumping into the economy in order to shut us all up while oil goes over $105 a barrel while the dollar "super spikes" below 73.

    That’s right, our own US dollar finished the day today at an all-time low of 72.96, down 40% since Jan 2002 so the joke is on OPEC, who is only getting $60 worth of our 2002 currency for their $100 barrels of oil. Unfortunately, the joke is also on us as that dollar you have in your pocket is worth just 60 cents while the average American is making LESS money than he did in 2002.



    http://seekingalpha.com/article/6801..._editors_picks
    In 2006 the NZ Petroleum conference opened with an address by a very smooth aussie Westpac senior ECONOMIST who forecast a drop in commodity prices. Classic supply and demand theory.

    Two years later the lessons have not been learnt. Another Westpac senior ECONOMIST gave the opening address and talked again of a drop in commodities especially oil. Classic supply and demand theory.

    When will these guys realise that oil is A PRECIOUS FINITE RESOURCE!!

  4. #214
    F.A.B. Huang Chung's Avatar
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    Below is a link to the keynote address given by Beach Petroleum MD Reg Nelson at the VictoriaPower & Gas 2008 conference this week.

    Whilst it obviously focuses in part on Beach's endeavours, I'd say that all of you O&G junkies will find the address very interesting, as the scope of the address is wider than just Beach.

    Recommended weekend reading.

    Enjoy.

    http://www.beachpetroleum.com.au/fil...Power_Gas_.pdf

  5. #215
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    [quote=Mick100;188159][quote=Mick100;182880][quote=Mick100;179432][quote=Mick100;177108][quote=Mick100;175583][quote=Mick100;173455][quote=Mick100;172436][quote=Mick100;171491][quote=Mick100;170570][quote=Mick100;169708][quote=Mick100;167752][quote=Mick100;166946]Commercial (hedgers) net shorts positions
    price open interest
    7/08/07 net short 117500 71.50
    14/08/07 net short 85700 72.00
    21/08/07 net short 42600 71.00
    28/08/07 net short 25000 74.00
    4/09/07 net short 34500 77.00
    11/09/07 net short 36000 77.50
    18/09/07 net short 44500 81.00
    25/09/07 net short 45300 79.50
    2/10/07 net short 59500 80.00
    9/10/07 net short 66000 80.26
    16/10/07 net short 78000 87.61
    23/10/07 net short 60000 85.27 1,408,000
    30/10/07 net short 77400 90.38 1,448,000
    06/11/07 net short 84000 96.70 1,513,000
    13/11/07 net short 23000 91.17 1,445.000
    20/11/07 net short 29000 95.00 1,398,000
    27/11/07 net short 54000 94.42 1,494,400
    04/12/07 net short 45000 88.32 1.382,500
    11/12/07 net short 38000 90.02 1.381,000
    18/12/07 netshort 29125 90,08 1,330,250
    24/12/07 net short 51000 94.13 1,326.000
    31/12/07 net short 85100 95.98 1,361 000
    08/01/08 net short 100500 96.33 1,414,000
    15/01/08 net short 91000 91.90 1.458.000
    22/01/08 net short 38400 89.21 1,343,200
    29/01/07 net short 31000 91.64 1,366,000
    05/02/07 net short 25000 88.41 1,368,500
    12/02/07 net short 36900 92.78 1,393,000
    19/02/07 net short 54200 99.70 1,355.000
    26/02/07 net short 85800 100.88 1,406.000
    04/03/08 net short 102,800 99.52 1,451.000
    11/03/07 net short 97230 108.75 1,484 400
    18/03/08 net short 70200 108.50 1,407,400
    25/03/08 net short 52100 101.22 1,362,700
    01/04/08 net short 40100 100.98 1,382.000
    08/04/08 net short 49500 108.50 1,412,300
    15/04/08 net short 47600 113.79 1,441,400
    22/04/08 net short 40500 118.07 1,337.100
    29/04/08 net short 37300 115.63 1,365,500
    06/05/08 net short 24100 121.84 1,422,400
    .
    Last edited by Mick100; 10-05-2008 at 08:13 PM. Reason: update
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  6. #216
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    net shorts not increasing along with the price - very bullish

    should easily make $120 on this run in price
    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  7. #217
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    Question how high is it going

    net shorts decreasing on strong price increases
    This is extremely bullish
    Do the commercials sense a shortage in the near future?
    usually they are big sellers on big price increases - not this time

    fill up your car and your jerry cans next week or better still, buy some oil shares as a hedge
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  8. #218
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick100 View Post
    net shorts decreasing on strong price increases
    This is extremely bullish
    Do the commercials sense a shortage in the near future?
    usually they are big sellers on big price increases - not this time

    fill up your car and your jerry cans next week or better still, buy some oil shares as a hedge
    Thanks for the reports and numbers Mick.

    I am all set in oilers and miners. The funny thing is that all my friends who are well educated and in high positions dont believe in Peak Oil. Either the population dont want to believe it or something is not right. Maybe it will take oil to be at $150 for everyone to take notice.

    It is a great feeling to wake up and enjoy the oil price increase while everyone else complains about it.. LOL

    Peak oil is here to stay, get used to it.
    Last edited by Dr_Who; 11-05-2008 at 09:14 AM.
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

  9. #219
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    Doctor Doctor,
    Whilst I do believe we are near Peak oil, and my portfolio is prepared for it, I believe that the consequences are dire. Consumption of oil can only be constrained by the world economy going into an unprecedented recession.

  10. #220
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    I reckon the strongest argument that oil production is at its peak, or very near to it, lies in the price.
    If the price of any other product or commodity had increased at the rate that oil has, producers would be falling over each other in a race to meet the demand. I know that oil refineries take years to build, etc, etc but the fact that oil production doesn't step up says to me that it just can't!

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