Crude Oil

[Mick100]

first time i'v seen commercials net long oil since I started keeping records
Obviously the commercials are peak oil believers

I'v noticed an increasing number of commentators (mainly ammerican) calling this the top in oil. The americans reason that a reccession in the US will lower demand leading to a lower price - this is what has happened in past reccessions in the US (a lower price of oil)

the non american point of veiw is that the incremental demand is coming from other parts of the world now (asia, russia, persian gulf states, south america) so a drop in demand from america no longer will lead to lower oil price but will make the american reccession far worse than usual - slow/no growth with rising prices equals stagflation
.

[Trent]

This podcast provides a good insight into futures trading in oil. Well worth a listen.

http://moniqueth3intern.wordpress.com/

[jonathan76]

Here's a news clip to support my theory that the recent oil will only be eaten up by the chinese cars rolling out of the production line

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5187.html

[lakedaemonian]

Here's a news clip to support my theory that the recent oil will only be eaten up by the chinese cars rolling out of the production line

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article5187.html

Don't forget Indian Nano cars as well!

[Mick100]

have updated the COT report on previous page
Commercials now net long 4650 contracts
From my limited experience in analysing this data I'd say oil price is going higher - probably significantly higher (heard one ta guy mention 170 recently but he admitted that no one knows where the top will come in)
I should add that I am not neccessarily wishing for higher oil price for I think it will be devasting to other sectors of the economy other than oil/gas

[Mick100]

the americans are still looking for someone to blame for the high oil price.
In 2003 it was the war in iraq then it was nuclear threats from iran as well as other terrorist threats. Last year they hauled the big oil companies in front of congress and interorgated them. Now they are pointing the finger at speculators!

Below is a link to a CFTC reply to the accusation that speculators are the reason for the current oil price - pay attention to the last chart wich shows the net percentage of open interest (net percentage of long contracts) held by speculators - this percentage peaked at 6% last august and has been declining since then.

http://www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/...heet062308.pdf
,

[Mick100]

[quote=Mick100;208018][quote=Mick100;203502][quote=Mick100;202234][quote=Mick100;189896][quote=Mick100;188159][quote=Mick100;182880][quote=Mick100;179432][quote=Mick100;177108][quote=Mick100;175583][quote=Mick100;173455][quote=Mick100;172436][quote=Mick100;171491][quote=Mick100;170570][quote=Mick100;169708][quote=Mick100;167752][quote=Mick100;166946]Commercial (hedgers) net shorts positions

price open interest
7/08/07 net short 117500 71.50
14/08/07 net short 85700 72.00
21/08/07 net short 42600 71.00
28/08/07 net short 25000 74.00
4/09/07 net short 34500 77.00
11/09/07 net short 36000 77.50
18/09/07 net short 44500 81.00
25/09/07 net short 45300 79.50

2/10/07 net short 59500 80.00
9/10/07 net short 66000 80.26
16/10/07 net short 78000 87.61
23/10/07 net short 60000 85.27 1,408,000
30/10/07 net short 77400 90.38 1,448,000
06/11/07 net short 84000 96.70 1,513,000
13/11/07 net short 23000 91.17 1,445.000
20/11/07 net short 29000 95.00 1,398,000
27/11/07 net short 54000 94.42 1,494,400
04/12/07 net short 45000 88.32 1.382,500
11/12/07 net short 38000 90.02 1.381,000
18/12/07 netshort 29125 90,08 1,330,250
24/12/07 net short 51000 94.13 1,326.000
31/12/07 net short 85100 95.98 1,361 000
08/01/08 net short 100500 96.33 1,414,000
15/01/08 net short 91000 91.90 1.458.000
22/01/08 net short 38400 89.21 1,343,200
29/01/07 net short 31000 91.64 1,366,000
05/02/07 net short 25000 88.41 1,368,500
12/02/07 net short 36900 92.78 1,393,000
19/02/07 net short 54200 99.70 1,355.000
26/02/07 net short 85800 100.88 1,406.000
04/03/08 net short 102,800 99.52 1,451.000
11/03/07 net short 97230 108.75 1,484 400
18/03/08 net short 70200 108.50 1,407,400
25/03/08 net short 52100 101.22 1,362,700
01/04/08 net short 40100 100.98 1,382.000
08/04/08 net short 49500 108.50 1,412,300
15/04/08 net short 47600 113.79 1,441,400
22/04/08 net short 40500 118.07 1,337.100
29/04/08 net short 37300 115.63 1,365,500
06/05/08 net short 24100 121.84 1,422,400
13/05/08 net short 39300 123.10 1,477,000
20/05/08 net short 19400 128.98 1,356,700
27/05/08 net short 11170 128.85 1,338.900
03/06/08 net short 19660 124.31 1,355,600
10/06/08 net short 13930 131.31 1.418,750
17/06/08 net long 1900 134.01 1,335,200
24/06/08 net long 4650 137.00 1,306.100
01/07/08 net short 18450 140.97 1,294,500
08/07/08 net short 300 136.04 1,316,300

[Mick100]

commercials still acting very bullish on oil
One thing that got my attention is the drop in open interest. This is probably due to some traders getting nervous at what the regulators may do (with good reason IMO) In the week 1/07/08 a lot of long positions were closed out but open interest has picked up a bit this last week
If regulators increase margin requirements to 50% (as has been mentioned in the press) then alot of traders will be forced out of the market
Increased margin requirement should apply to both long and short so I don't know what impact it would have on the price

large speculators are net long 7060
small speculators are net short 6750

futures prices
aug 08 145.08
dec 08 146.35
dec 09 144.61
dec 10 142.44
dec 11 140.96
.

[Mick100]

[quote=Mick100;212019][quote=Mick100;208018][quote=Mick100;203502][quote=Mick100;202234][quote=Mick100;189896][quote=Mick100;188159][quote=Mick100;182880][quote=Mick100;179432][quote=Mick100;177108][quote=Mick100;175583][quote=Mick100;173455][quote=Mick100;172436][quote=Mick100;171491][quote=Mick100;170570][quote=Mick100;169708][quote=Mick100;167752][quote=Mick100;166946]Commercial (hedgers) net shorts positions

price open interest
7/08/07 net short 117500 71.50
14/08/07 net short 85700 72.00
21/08/07 net short 42600 71.00
28/08/07 net short 25000 74.00
4/09/07 net short 34500 77.00
11/09/07 net short 36000 77.50
18/09/07 net short 44500 81.00
25/09/07 net short 45300 79.50

2/10/07 net short 59500 80.00
9/10/07 net short 66000 80.26
16/10/07 net short 78000 87.61
23/10/07 net short 60000 85.27 1,408,000
30/10/07 net short 77400 90.38 1,448,000
06/11/07 net short 84000 96.70 1,513,000
13/11/07 net short 23000 91.17 1,445.000
20/11/07 net short 29000 95.00 1,398,000
27/11/07 net short 54000 94.42 1,494,400
04/12/07 net short 45000 88.32 1.382,500
11/12/07 net short 38000 90.02 1.381,000
18/12/07 netshort 29125 90,08 1,330,250
24/12/07 net short 51000 94.13 1,326.000
31/12/07 net short 85100 95.98 1,361 000
08/01/08 net short 100500 96.33 1,414,000
15/01/08 net short 91000 91.90 1.458.000
22/01/08 net short 38400 89.21 1,343,200
29/01/07 net short 31000 91.64 1,366,000
05/02/07 net short 25000 88.41 1,368,500
12/02/07 net short 36900 92.78 1,393,000
19/02/07 net short 54200 99.70 1,355.000
26/02/07 net short 85800 100.88 1,406.000
04/03/08 net short 102,800 99.52 1,451.000
11/03/07 net short 97230 108.75 1,484 400
18/03/08 net short 70200 108.50 1,407,400
25/03/08 net short 52100 101.22 1,362,700
01/04/08 net short 40100 100.98 1,382.000
08/04/08 net short 49500 108.50 1,412,300
15/04/08 net short 47600 113.79 1,441,400
22/04/08 net short 40500 118.07 1,337.100
29/04/08 net short 37300 115.63 1,365,500
06/05/08 net short 24100 121.84 1,422,400
13/05/08 net short 39300 123.10 1,477,000
20/05/08 net short 19400 128.98 1,356,700
27/05/08 net short 11170 128.85 1,338.900
03/06/08 net short 19660 124.31 1,355,600
10/06/08 net short 13930 131.31 1.418,750
17/06/08 net long 1900 134.01 1,335,200
24/06/08 net long 4650 137.00 1,306.100
01/07/08 net short 18450 140.97 1,294,500
08/07/08 net short 300 136.04 1,316,300
15/07/08 net short 16620 138.74
22/07/08 net long 14730 128.42
29/07/08 net long 12840 122.19 1,220,500
5/08/08 net long 14500 119.17
12/08/08 net long 19000 113.01
19/08/08 net short 2250 114.54
26/08/08 net short 11400 116.27 1,187,600
02/09/08 net short 2500 109.71
09/09/08 net long 2500 103.26 1,231,450

[Mick100]

not sure about the relevance of this particular data anymore
commercials are supposed to be only the hedgers who either produce oil or buy oil (refiners). From what I am reading in recent months it sounds as though some large investment banks/hedge funds are putting their trades through the commercial catagory. These guys are not hedgers - they are traders and their activity should be recorded in the large trader catagory not commercial catagory.