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Thread: Crude Oil

  1. #21
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    Arco

    What are your thoughts on oil ATM

    I heard someone talking about a head and shoulder pattern forming a few days ago

    cheers
    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  2. #22
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Mick

    Yes there is a possible H&S in the making but the price would have to break circa 63.30 and test that polarity change before it could be confirmed.

    Should that scenario play out oil could drop to between $53-57, but a reversal north at that point could be bullish again because it would complete a Gartley pattern.

    arco




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  3. #23
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    Arco,
    The following major issues are affecting the price of crude oil

    1.Increasing demand versus struggling supply.The supply gap is now down to 1 million bbls per day on a 84 million per day usage.There used to be a gap of 5 million bbls per day.

    2.Iraq has had its oil infrastructure decimated and is without a plan to return production to former levels.

    3.Non Opec oil supplies have peaked and are now diminishing.e.g North Sea Oil is in a 10% decline as is Prudhoe Bay in Alaska.And turning to gas there will be huge problems for the UK this winter.Terrible planning has reduced gas supplies to 5 days.(Heads will roll believe me)

    4.There is unrest in Nigeria which currently produces about 2.5 million bbls per day.

    5.There is huge and growing demand for light sweet crude.Even Saudi Arabia admit light sweet crude peaked in 2000

    6.There is insufficient refinery capacity especially in the USA to meet demand.The US havent built a new refinery for 30 years.

    7.Opec members are still refusing to supply accurate data on their reserves...,especially the largest producer Saudi Arabia.Many,including such authorities as Matthew Simmons believe their reserves are vastly overstated and that some of their major fields are in decline already.

    8.The Saud Royal Family are under increasing pressure from Islamists to oust Westerners.Once this happens look out.Oil could easily go to $200/bbl overnight.

    9.Iran is under new leadership and already is picking a fight with the USA.Not only with respect to restarting their Nuclear programme but also they plan to convert their oil trade to Euros next March.Saddam Hussein tried the same thing and got invaded 3 months later.

    10.China and India are increasing thir oil consumption at up to 20% per annum.Each day China puts another 10,000 cars on the road.China has actively been out sourcing oil from Iran and Venezuela and elsewhere.In fact they put in a bid for a large American oil company .

    11.Changing weather patterns have brought and wrought havoc to the Rigs
    and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Better stop now.I am a real joy germ eh?

    What part of Bermuda are you from?

  4. #24
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    Bermuda, arco is referring to the short term
    This is also what I am interesrd in ATM
    Med/long term I am bullish on oil for many of the reasons you mention plus some.
    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  5. #25
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Hi Bermuda

    My post was basically regarding the possibility of a Head and Shoulders that Mick mentioned.

    The H&S pattern is not confirmed as yet, but I gave the likely scenario if it should eventuate.

    Anyone interested can read about these patterns here.....

    http://www.chartpatterns.com/invtdhe...lderschrts.htm

    arco




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  6. #26
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    Nice to see the Bermudans sticking together. Hope this hurricane season was nice for you: another hurricane or three might turn the head and shoulders into a shoulder, a head and goitre with a mean elevation of 88 degrees.

  7. #27
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    Interesting oil debate you guys have going.

    All the true and forboding points you covered Bermuda...(very well summarised!) are a great reason to remain well invested in Oil and GAS.....Iran/Saudi are major potential flashpoints that I would expect to play out over the next two years....

    Anyone have any "soon to produce" Aussie juniour oilers with gas interests in the USA...other than Neo/Opl/Azz???
    US gas price is forcast by some to reach US$16-20 MCF by Xmas.

    G.
    Run with the Bull, leave the Bear to do it's business in the woods!

  8. #28
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    GREGOR

    FAR is worth a look - very good drilling program
    VPE is making good headway in the US
    I also hold PSA which has been increasing production at a good rate over yhe past couple of yrs
    ,
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  9. #29
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    STX is about to drill for gas starting next month I'm led to believe, Gregor. There are a heap of them, FAR, NWE....shysa, can only come up with two but there are defo more. Planet Gas is one, think its PGS. Pacrim I think (PRE), LOU is another. Can't think of anymore.

  10. #30
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    Yes Petsec is a cracker, Mick. Well done for getting aboard.

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