Crude Oil

[bermuda]

Arco,
I was born in Hamilton.Where are you domiciled?

Ps. I wouldn't like to guess where oil will go.Methinks down to about $US50 but anything could happen.

[nelehdine]

Gregorious , Amadeus Energy is solely US production based. Approx 400k bbl of oil will be produced in its 05/06 year and 200k BOE worth of gas ( up 350% !!! from 04/05 ) They are totally unhedged and have some great onshore acreage in Texas and Louisiana. 155m shares on issue and will probably earn A$25m if oil averages $55 and gas $7.50 ... extremely conservative. Also own 31.73% of Australian Renewable Fuels which is worth approx 35c per AMU share. Current price is $1.10 so O&G assets valued at 75c/share so they are on a forcast P/E of about 4.5 ... great value. www.amadeusenergy.com

Disc: hold 81,250 AMU

[Krustytheclown]

Thanks...Youll!

Not selling the Neo's yet.....but some of the suggestions sound interesting..

G.

[arco]

Updating the chart. We could see a move down to the uptrend line IMO.



arco

[Packersoldkidney]

Nice bat.

[arco]

Packers

Its actually a Gartley that could just turn into a beautiful Butterfly.

arco

[Packersoldkidney]

A bullish gartley: sometime ago I downloaded and printed an excellent 134 page 'manual' on Fibs, chart swing points and gartleys. I've just had a google for it, but can't find it: it's a PDF I think. I do have the hardcopy sitting on my desk, but haven't gotten around to reading it as yet. Could have been written by Arco himself.

[Mick100]

Reuters
Oil drops as crude piles up
Wednesday October 19, 11:21 am ET
By Peg Mackey and Barbara Lewis


LONDON (Reuters) - Oil dropped on Wednesday after U.S. data showed crude and gasoline piling up in storage tanks and consumers cutting down on fuel use.
Adding pressure to prices, Hurricane Wilma appeared to steer away from vulnerable rigs and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico.


U.S. crude (CLc1) was down $1.15 to $62.05 by 1515 GMT, after losses of $1.16 on Tuesday. London Brent crude (LCOc1) was off 79 cents at $58.49.

Prices reversed slim gains after weekly U.S. government data showed crude stocks rising by 5.6 million barrels, sharply up on a forecast build of two million barrels.

Gasoline rose by nearly three million barrels against expectations of a 1.2 million barrel draw, though distillates, which include heating oil, declined by 1.9 million barrels -- nearly matching expectations.

Adding to the bearish impact of the stocks data, the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration provided the latest evidence that high prices have eroded demand.

It said demand for oil product was down 3.2 percent from a year ago.

Analysts said Wednesday's data were very bearish. But they said the full impact on inventory levels from hurricanes Katrina and Rita that struck oil infrastructure in August and September had yet to be seen.

"We're still dealing with trying to guess what the hurricanes' impact was on oil facilities," said Bill O'Grady of A.G. Edwards in St. Louis.

"Normally we base our forecasts on seasonal patterns, now seasonal patterns are disrupted."

U.S. refineries are gradually resuming normal operations after the storms. Five plants were still shut along with two thirds of Gulf of Mexico oil output.

Adding to the build-up in crude stocks as refineries stay idled, OPEC has been pumping at near full tilt.

The cartel expects to boost its production capacity to 38 million bpd by 2010 from 32.5 million bpd this year, its acting Secretary General Adnan Shihab Eldin said.

Tensions with OPEC's second biggest producer Iran mounted. Diplomatic and industry sources said Iran was blocking British and South Korean goods in an apparent attempt to force the two to drop their opposition to Tehran's nuclear program.

Oil and gas exports have not been affected.

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

Some astroanalysis on oil and the DOW, at:

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/foru.../6/369432.html

... and some thoughts on sector rotation, as well.

have a great weekend

yogi

[Mick100]

Kuwait's biggest field starts to run out of oil


By Peter J. Cooper
KUWAIT: It was an incredible revelation last week that the second largest oil field in the world is exhausted and past its peak output. Yet that is what the Kuwait Oil Company revealed about its Burgan field. The peak output of the Burgan oil field will now be around 1.7 million barrels per day, and not the two million barrels per day forecast for the rest of the field's 30 to 40 years of life, Chairman Farouk Al-Zanki told Bloomberg. He said that engineers had tried to maintain 1.9 million barrels per day but that 1.7 million is the optimum rate. Kuwait will now spend some $3 million a year for the next year to boost output and exports from other fields.

However, it is surely a landmark moment when the world's second largest oil field begins to run dry. For Burgan has been pumping oil for almost 60 years and accounts for more than half of Kuwait's proven oil reserves. This is also not what forecasters are currently assuming.
Last week the International Energy Agency's report said output from the Greater Burgan area will be 1.64 million barrels a day in 2020 and 1.53 million barrels per day in 2030. Is this now a realistic scenario?
The news about the Burgan oil field also lends credence to the controversial opinions of investment banker and geologist Matthew Simmons. His book 'Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy' claims that ageing Saudi oil fields also face serious production falls.
The implications for the global economy are indeed serious. If the world oil supply begins to run dry then the upward pressure on oil prices will be inexorable. For the oil producers this will come as a compensation for declining output, and cushion them against an economic collapse.
However, the oil consumers then face a major energy crisis. Industrialized economies are still far too dependent on oil. And the pricing mechanism of declining oil reserves will press them into further diversification of energy supplies, particularly nuclear, wind and solar power.
All this was foreshadowed in the energy crisis of the late 1970s when a serious inflection in oil supply by the year 2000 was clearly forecast. How ironic that those earlier forecasts now look correct, while more modern and recent forecasts begin to look over optimistic and out-of-date with geological reality.
Nobody can change the geology, and forces of nature that laid down reserves of oil and gas over millions and millions of years. Could it be that we have been blinded by technological advances into thinking that there is some way to beat nature?
The natural world has an uncanny ability to hit back at the arrogance of man, and perhaps a reassessment of reality at this point is called for, rather than a reliance on oil statistics that may owe more to political manoeuvring than geological facts. - AME Info FZ LLC.