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Thread: Gold

  1. #7906
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBQ View Post
    By default, most do in ways of owning expensive jewelery. It spans across all cultures around the world. But to answer why western central banks don't care about the gold has more to do with macroeconomics and fiat $. The rise of western nations came about by use of fiat currency which is tied to the economic output of the country. The previous economy from developing nations tend to rely on a 'gold standard' where the amount of physical gold held by the central bank would determine the country's currency strength. Which would you pick? If you start looking at the reasons why Bretton Woods formed and why the Gold Standard was abolished.. you'll find it's those nations that were able to elevate their standard of living through fiat currency... What countries that remain on a 'gold standard' or buying large amounts of gold by their central banks had come out at a high standard of living for their country? Even in NZ's case the RBZ had sold it's gold reserve (if I recall correctly) in the 1980s. In fact, physical gold in pure non-jewelry form attracts no GST or real restriction to bring in and out of the country. It's to show that from the NZ central banks point of view, gold serves very little purpose in the NZ currency or monetary system.
    I agree gold should only be an insurance policy against inflation and the debasement of fiat currencies.

    Ben Bernanke says it is not money yet the US treasury holds the largest amount of gold reserves. The biggest holders of gold per a google search.
    United States. Tonnes: 8,133.5.
    Germany. Tonnes: 3,371.0. ...
    Italy. Tonnes: 2,451.8. ...
    France. Tonnes: 2,436.0. ...
    Russia. Tonnes: 1,909.8. ...
    China. Tonnes: 1,842.6. ...
    Switzerland. Tonnes: 1,040.0. ...
    Japan. Tonnes: 765.2. ...
    Bar China and Russia these are all developed nations. They may not be buying but they are not selling either. It must still be considered a currency as long as central banks treat it as such. Although it is probably inconsequential compared to fiat currencies. If central banks start selling I will start selling my gold miners probably at a big loss.

    GST is not charged on gold because gold is considered a currency and financial transactions are exempt from GST. (This also applies to silver and platinum)

  2. #7907
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    GST is not charged on gold because gold is considered a currency and financial transactions are exempt from GST. (This also applies to silver and platinum)
    Yes but walking off the airplane there's a $10,000 declaration limit for currency. With physical gold there was no limit (i'm speaking from experience

    Also you probably wouldn't bother with silver as it takes up too much space to carry on the plane to have a very significant value.

    Interesting to know taking gold out of NZ poses no issue.

  3. #7908
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBQ View Post
    Yes but walking off the airplane there's a $10,000 declaration limit for currency. With physical gold there was no limit (i'm speaking from experience

    Also you probably wouldn't bother with silver as it takes up too much space to carry on the plane to have a very significant value.

    Interesting to know taking gold out of NZ poses no issue.
    Gold isn't used in day to day transactions so at a guess too many paper dollars going offshore might require them to order more to ensure we don't run out for people going to the dairy for an ice cream. If NZ reserve bank holds no gold I guess you are right they NZ doesn't care.

  4. #7909
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBQ View Post
    Yes but walking off the airplane there's a $10,000 declaration limit for currency. With physical gold there was no limit (i'm speaking from experience
    really?
    I think you'll find otherwise.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  5. #7910
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    Default Palladium

    Not exactly gold, but close.

    What's lit the rocket under the palladium price in the past six months or so?

  6. #7911
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    Quote Originally Posted by SBQ View Post
    Yes but walking off the airplane there's a $10,000 declaration limit for currency. With physical gold there was no limit (i'm speaking from experience

    Also you probably wouldn't bother with silver as it takes up too much space to carry on the plane to have a very significant value.

    Interesting to know taking gold out of NZ poses no issue.
    Wouldn't bullion (10-told bars etc) just get tangled up in the "goods" catch-all?


    "If you're bringing in more than NZ$700 worth of goods (not including your clothes, jewellery and toiletries), you'll need to declare it as you may have to pay duty fees or GST."

  7. #7912
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    Gold cracks $1,300 again.

    My gold producing companies are doing well on my speculation that gold will be considered a safe alternative in a crazy financial world as long as central banks keep it as a currency. Or possibly a Plan B for central planners if faith is lost in currencies.

    My speculation is small as I consider it to be funds I have to accept losing as least half or more of in the event of a company crisis or fall in gold so success to date has not changed my financial well being much, due to the small size of the speculation. Although mentally it has been a great salve as I have missed out on a lot since 2009.

    My thoughts now, while accepting it is still a pure speculation as my understanding of gold mining and gold markets supply/demand is non-existent and the price of gold can jump around quite considerably but as I want to get rid of my cash when my latest term deposit matures, do I stop being a pussy and just plough more into gold miners on the hope that my dumb luck continues. I appreciate the answer is no but I am so tempted. This is what you might call emotional speculation rather than reasoned investment. Past success gets translated in my head to future success. I suppose my reasons for speculating on gold haven't changed much and if a recession is coming the reaction from the world central banks might be the straw that breaks the camels back regarding faith in currencies and the ability of central banks to keep things going through low interest rates and excessive debt levels.

    FYI results to date
    EVN 54% Purchase date 22/08/2016 annualised return roughly divide by 3 equals 18%
    NCM 77% 23/12/2014 divide 5 15%
    NST 109% 22/08/2016 36%
    RMS 137% 02/11/2012 by 7 19%
    CVR 0% purchased around 2011 went bust but helped me decide to stick to well established producers rather than further speculation on explorers. I am positive on the price of gold but not the ability to find more of it. Dabbled in MML, SAR, KCN, POT, PGI AYN and others back in 2011/12 but that would have been after getting a diggers & drillers subscription and finding out once more the experts seem to have as much luck as me and if they are doing research it appears to mean squat. I’d rather make my own mistakes. In fact I only hold RMS as it went in the bottom draw after tanking.

    Plus I have had some piddly little dividends from EVN, NCM & NST so total returns from these three companies have been good since 2014 . I guess success with NCM caused me to buy EVN & NST to reduce company risk while carrying on speculating. Not sure if I am looking for advice or trying to clarify my thoughts by speaking them aloud. I don’t really like revealing how limited my intelligence is on a public forum but thought it might prevent me from doing something I will later regret.

    Writing this has actually helped clarify my thoughts. I think I will risk a bit more but not go all out for the life changing stroke of luck that I would like it to be, but if my speculation is successful it will make some difference to my financial security once sold.

    Any views or advice will be gratefully accepted and considered.
    Last edited by Aaron; 02-06-2019 at 11:01 AM.

  8. #7913
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    Hi Aaron, even conservative Craigs are reccoing having some quality gold producers in ones portfolio atm !! Its a good hedge if/when things go pear shaped etc. Im holding EVN and NST(have held a while) but wouldn't recco buying at these prices, and SLR. Holding companies that produce alot of their gold in aussie is good as the $us is currency used. Working out your exposure that you are comfortable with is important. Mine is currently about 6% of my portfolio plus i have 2 hi risk spekky explorers with a very SMALL amount of punt money just for fun.

  9. #7914
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    My leveraged portfolio is mostly made up of micro cap spec gold plays ... I donít hold anything that doesn,t have at least 200% growth potential in the next 6 months ... also have options which are another leverage .. I wouldnít recommend my style for 99% if investors but for me itís worked well

  10. #7915
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    Thanks for the replies. Jtree I guess I should look at my goldies as a percentage of my total holdings and stop now. JBmurc your style of investing would stop me sleeping at night a wrong call leaves you paying off a loan.
    Sadly buying last week would have been the best bet, I see my bigger miners in the top 10 rises in the herald this morning and the price of gold seems to be carrying on its merry way. Maybe I should try a bit of momentum investing.

  11. #7916
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    Looking at the PE ratios in ASB Securities for NCM NST & EVN 30 to 40 times earnings appears expensive but maybe I need to look at the financial statements and try and understand the business better.

  12. #7917
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    Looking at the PE ratios in ASB Securities for NCM NST & EVN 30 to 40 times earnings appears expensive but maybe I need to look at the financial statements and try and understand the business better.
    the Blue Chip Gold producers generally command value for Gold in-ground reserves larger the reserves the higher the P/E

    Personal I like the upcoming Gold companies that have very low prospective forward P/E like EAR that currently commands a market value of 89mill and going from DFS will have yearly earnings of around 80mill going from DFS AISC and current Gold price

    Great to see AUD gold break $1900 I stand by my call of $2000oz AUD gold to be crossed this year
    Last edited by JBmurc; 04-06-2019 at 09:22 AM.
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  13. #7918
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    Gold on the run can it break $1350 ???
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  14. #7919
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    It sure has, nearly $1380, my Goldies ascending daily atm. Dovish fed helping, Risk rising.

    NST was $9.96 on the 5th ,now $11.37

  15. #7920
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    F**k It. Should have bought while I was thinking about it.

    Maybe I should throw all reason out the window and try some momentum investing with my speculative bets.

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