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Thread: Gold

  1. #7921
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    Back under $1400 after running to re $1428. I can imagine this scenario.Trump "Hey you, i feel a tweet coming on set up a trade ,QUICK!"

  2. #7922
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    Now I have bought in I am set for a loss today. That's the trouble with speculation I should actually try and work out what sort of income I can expect from the companies and base my valuations on something that has involved some thought. The greater fool theory not working for me today. I guess that makes me the greatest fool.

  3. #7923
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    This should be good for gold demand and hopefully price.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/ray-...l-markets.html

    Ray Dalio reckons central banks will destroy the value of a dollar. I am in gold miners so carry more risk such as operations risk, the price of oil sky rocketing in the event of a US war with Iran etc etc. Maybe I should be buying some coins.

    I still have a large portion of my portfolio in term deposits (waiting for a crash) but need to get serious about putting it into something real and adding a small amount of manageable debt. Sadly with elevated prices I will not get much of a return on any investment but it might be better than cash in the long run. It is really hard to know what to do.

    Happy about my gold miner top up today, might break-even on price which is always nice.

    I think Bernard Hickey is suggesting a house unless it is financial armageddon in which case will asset prices deflate faster than central banks ability to destroy money. Swings and roundabouts, tough decisions to made and lived with.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/114...housing-bubble

    Also found this but will have to read it at lunchtime, still have to make a dollar.
    https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/parad...o/?published=t
    Last edited by Aaron; 18-07-2019 at 07:55 AM.

  4. #7924
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    6 year high for Gold. And so far some good earnings results from USA of A, Microsoft for one.

    $87,000 an oz gold!!! I confess my eyes glazed over and i didnt watch it all.

    https://youtu.be/VMCu9GWpgzg

  5. #7925
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    Looks like some euphoric warning bells are going off.My goldies are extreme skyrocketing , something has to give very soon on this cliff ended roller coaster.

  6. #7926
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    The Ray Dalio effect. I imagine he is pretty closely followed worldwide. Central banks would have to go back to a gold standard for all that pie in the sky stuff in your youtube link JT. Not happening anytime soon in the western world although if what I read can be believed Russia and China are accumulating it.

    As Dalio suggests

    "To me, it seems obvious that they have to help the debtors relative to the creditors. At the same time, it appears to me that the forces of easing behind this paradigm (i.e., interest rate cuts and quantitative easing) will have diminishing effects. For these reasons, I believe that monetizations of debt and currency depreciations will eventually pick up, which will reduce the value of money and real returns for creditors and test how far creditors will let central banks go in providing negative real returns before moving into other assets.
    To be clear, I am not saying that this shift will happen immediately. I am saying that I think it is approaching and will have a big effect on what the next paradigm will look like."


    I have reached a point where I am seriously looking at buying anything to get out of dollars, although NZ dollars should be better than a lot of others, our govt is not as heavily indebted, the reserve bank doesn't practice QE (does it?) and interest rate drops could just be part of the currency wars as well as trickle down economics(pumping assets up). Dare I mention his name but Robert Kiyosaki has been right all along, cash is trash, or will be soon as there seems no other way out of the debt problem according to Dalio other than printing money (monetization of debt) and making it worthless.

    Now I wish I had bought a lot more shares in gold producers. This speculation is really tough.
    Last edited by Aaron; 19-07-2019 at 12:49 PM.

  7. #7927
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    Thanks for sharing. Yeah its tough but having a gold portfolio is a hedge for me and now its paying off big atpit. I really have no idea where this is all going to end for Investors in most assets and equities.

    Some smaller goldie developers and producers are lagging the big producers (EVN and NST for mine) that im looking at atm .Cheers and knowing when to get off is the next challenge.

  8. #7928
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Cheers and knowing when to get off is the next challenge.
    Could probably use Technical Analysis for that but I suspect if it is the beginning of a paradigm shift then there might be a lot more to go. Although with the price of gold it could drop 2% over night as it seems to be all over the place depending on the latest headline.

  9. #7929
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    AARON, SURELY CASH WILL BE GREAT TO PICK UP ALL THE DISTRESSED DUMPED EQUITIES AND PROPERTY ETC. Whoops sorry about caps.

    Meanwhile Gold powering higher. US$1481.26 oz atpit.

  10. #7930
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    Great money to be made in the Micro-jnr caps on the ASX

    One has to understand ..

    Fact#1 Austrialia is the biggest exporter of Gold in the world (China producers more but doesn't export any)

    Fact#2 Austrialia reached peak Gold production in 2018fy it is now going to see downtrending gold production as exploration/investment in the prior 6x years of the gold bear market was much less and the timeframes to take greenfields to producing mine takes several years+.. this is a cycle going back to the 70's where peak gold production is always meet by higher Gold prices as demand outstrips the falling production numbers = more investment

    Fact#3 Profit margins for AUD Gold producers have never been higher as even back when AUD reached its last short timeframe peak 2011 $1800oz etc energy costs were much the same as today $1.50lt Diesel price in the Gold fields WA- (Oil prices where much higher as was the AUD/USD) now we have $2170oz and slowing increasing month on month $2500oz likely during 2020

    Fact#4 we are in the "INVESTMENT CYCLE" for the ASX Gold sector which means huge amounts of funds are being raised and invested into the sector NST annouced a $75mill AUD in exploration funding for 2020 all ASX Gold focused miners are doing the same ..

    Fact#5 Many micro-caps and still below IPO prices and haven't followed the AUD Gold price higher like the majors have as of yet
    EV/gold resources are a joke in many cases ... this isn't going to last ...

    Fact#6 the ASX hot money always loves a story ... since I've been trading I have seen the RARE earth boom , Shale gas BOOM, Battery metals BOOM , Silver BOOM , Vanadium BOOM , Weed BOOM, Crypto company BOOM etc etc valuations go nuts when the sector is hot Billions of trading funds hunt for the next big story and decent news and they run hard ... IMHO the small end of town ASX Gold sector is going be bigger than all of them as Australia ASX is the home of some of the best Gold prospects in the world as too why its the second largest Gold Producer

    I've been set for this run for many years aways holding a good part of the portfolio in the micro-cap Gold sector(getting badly burnt during the crash) ....finally the wait is nearly over bring on 2020/21 ... I'm confident I'll be semi-retired next few years or least very close ... just another million or so in free capital will do

    Interested how many other ST are keen to get a few 10+ baggers on their books
    Last edited by JBmurc; 07-08-2019 at 01:07 PM.
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

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