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Thread: Gold

  1. #1
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    Default Gold

    I've been having a debate on another thread with JBMurc on gold.
    Personally I think it's going to be a fizzer and we've seen the highs for the next few years.
    I reckon the stockmarkets could do well for a while and when the gold bugs, most of whom are new at the game realise what they're missing out on will jump ship and cash in their yellow metal.

    Opportunity cost, insurance and safekeeping make it a risky investment and in the event of a real crisis you probably couldn't sell it, divide it into smaller pieces or eat it.

    Warren Buffet agrees with me and reckons it's a waste of time. The rationale for gold bugs bullishness is the coming implosion of the $US they say.

    The USA virtually paid for World War 2, Berlin Airlift and the Cold War for another 50 years all done with debt, like the stimulus.

    The early '80's saw a revival of gold for a short period with investment experts imploring punters to buy gold to avoid the coming meltdown but it ended in tears.

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    Skol,
    I cannot understand gold. Never have. I avoid it. Apparently there is over 365 days stock on hand. Whereas with oil there is only a few days.
    I remember that Ray Smith. Nows lives at sanctuary cove. Apparently back in the good old days he took a little fluesy out to a remote island for a bit of a picnic. The story goes that they got bitten to pieces by the mossies as the Helicopter pilot deliberately dropped them off on the wrong island.

    I wouldnt like to pick where gold goes but I would be bearish on the USD.

  3. #3
    F.A.B. Huang Chung's Avatar
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    To twist the words of Mark Twain...

    The rumours of the US Dollar's death are greatly exaggerated....

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    Default Cheers and Skol

    Skol, I admire your tenacity,but wonder at your capacity for a good argument. You are already fighting against oil, gold, and just about everything else except airline shares on the Forex thread, and the POO thread. And sure and bejeez, as Paddy said, here you are opening up here on another front.
    Happy New Year to you,
    Last edited by airedale; 31-12-2009 at 12:50 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by airedale View Post
    Skol, I admire your tenacity,but wonder at your capacity for a good argument. You are already fighting against oil, gold, and just about everything else except airline shares on the Forex thread, and the POO thread. And sure and bejeez, as Paddy said, here you are opening up here on another front.
    Happy New Year to you,
    Well if you read this morning's Australian there is an article about airline shares having their day in the Sun.

    I've watched it all before and history's on my side. The gold bugs, mostly newbies to the investment scene are about to get their fingers burnt. They've read about it in the newspapers and rushed off to by some bullion believing that it will go to $5000 oz or some such nonsense.

    Happy new year to you too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skol View Post
    Well if you read this morning's Australian there is an article about airline shares having their day in the Sun.

    I've watched it all before and history's on my side. The gold bugs, mostly newbies to the investment scene are about to get their fingers burnt. They've read about it in the newspapers and rushed off to by some bullion believing that it will go to $5000 oz or some such nonsense.

    Happy new year to you too.
    I think Gold's had a good run, & is due a wee breather, perhaps back under $US1000/oz.

    I'm picking Gold will trade between $US900 - 1200/oz, starting the year off strong & then drifting back for a while.

    What surprises me the most is that Silver hasn't disconnected from Gold, & reduced the ratio to Gold.

    The Chinese have been buying Gold & Silver, while India buys Gold...

    Hopefully 2010 will be a good year for Silver & sometime we'll see $US25/oz
    Disc holding - AOG, IGO, NMT, SNC, STA

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    Not long ago India brought 400ton of the IMF they traded their USD for GOLD
    I believe the USD could well stay strong an in turn push the GOLD price lower which once it's below 1040 watch China,India,Arabs etc in turn come looking to exchange their USD for GOLD bullion
    this will be yet another nail in the coffin of a strong USD

    like I said to you SKOL gold will be higher come year end from now yet it may fall in the short term ,as long as the US FED prints free money an the US DEPT grows trillions per Qtr Gold the world's other world currency will be sort after....





    By Dr. Jeffrey Lewis
    Dec 30 2009 2:34PM


    Now that 2009 has come to a close, investors are looking forward to the happenings of 2010. One of the most important events is the issuance of nearly $2.2 trillion in Treasury bonds to fund government spending. Although $2.2 trillion seems relatively small compared to a federal debt just over $12 trillion, the size is magnified when you consider its impact on the markets.

    2009 Treasury Sales

    The 2009 Treasury issuance was relatively tiny due to the amount of quantitative easing enacted by the Federal Reserve. To help ease the credit markets, namely the Treasury markets which allow the government to spend money, the Federal Reserve printed over a trillion dollars and purchased several hundred billion dollars of US Treasuries, as well as nearly $1 trillion of “agency debt” or mortgage-backed securities.

    After the Fed’s buying spree, there was only $200 billion in fixed income remaining, creating a net issuance in 2009 of $200 billion. Of course, $200 billion is virtually nothing when it comes to the world economy and the amount of money in existence, and thus, $200 billion was consumed relatively easily, with no real impact on the marketplace.

    The Situation in 2010

    Fixed income issues are set to increase from $1.75 trillion to $2.25 trillion next year, with the difference mostly comprised of heavier borrowing by the Federal Government via the Treasury markets.

    Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve has only $200 billion remaining in its quantitative easing fund to buy agency debt and US Treasuries, and the funds will only last until March under the program enacted early last year. This leaves a total of $2.05 trillion unfunded that must be borrowed to keep government programs in the black – at least with capital and not actual earnings.

    Therefore, in the next year, the US Treasury will need to borrow more than $2 trillion without the help of the Federal Reserve. China has already said it is limiting its purchases of US Treasuries, and the government is proving its resolve by redeeming long-dated bonds and rolling them into short term debt. Other purchasers, such as Japan, have their own financial problems. The remaining countries, institutions, and other investors aren't too keen on earning low rates on what is quickly becoming riskier debt.

    What is the solution? The Fed will simply need to print more money.

    The Fed Will Have to Step in with its Printer

    Remember, this recession was triggered due to a shortage of credit. To aid in both creating credit, as well as providing short term loans to businesses and government, the Federal Reserve began to create money to ease the burden. As a result, the Fed bought more debt than anyone else by a factor of 10.

    Moving into next year, with the same credit problems and net issuance of $2.25 trillion, the Fed will have to further its quantitative easing (inflation) programs to keep the Treasury markets liquid. Should the Federal Reserve continue to print money to gap a shortfall in Treasury sales, the creation of $2 trillion would create inflation of 25% overnight. Obviously, as in all markets, inflation will not come out of the woodwork for a period of months and possibly up to two years, but it will eventually reach the market. Subsequently, in 2010, investors of all types need to be incredibly prudent with their money and protect their assets with precious metals.



    Dr. Jeffrey Lewis
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  8. #8
    Guru Dr_Who's Avatar
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    Thumbs up

    While Skol fights, we are making money and laughing all the way to the bank.

    IRN is a good example of 500% return in less than one year.

    Who's buying all that US debt?
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...A?OpenDocument
    Last edited by Dr_Who; 31-12-2009 at 01:22 PM.
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

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    Nouriel Roubini says any suggestion gold will boom is nonsense.
    I hope you read this one too bermuda, there'a message there about oil.

    http://wallstreetpit.com/11964-roubi...lking-nonsense

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Who View Post
    While Skol fights, we are making money and laughing all the way to the bank.
    You're always making millions doctor but never telling us how, there's a few guys at work like that. You should be on the Riviera with your yacht.

    I've just had a look at a random selection of the charts of 11 gold mining companies listed on the ASX and it's bad news.

    The shares know something you don't, just as oil shares dived last year indicating a bear market in oil, so are gold shares giving you the message.

    You must have had hundreds of kilos of Au buried in the garden for a few years to make all this dough because you won't have made it out of gold shares recently.

    If you'd bought VBA then you would have really made some money.
    Last edited by Skol; 31-12-2009 at 04:28 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skol View Post
    Nouriel Roubini says any suggestion gold will boom is nonsense.
    I hope you read this one too bermuda, there'a message there about oil.

    http://wallstreetpit.com/11964-roubi...lking-nonsense
    Skol,
    I have read so much about oil that I am going to stick with it. Tricha had a very jaggered
    up and down graph that summed it up nicely. Tricha, can you post it again please.

    This could be quite a good thread but I will just have to watch. I know so little about gold. Wouldn't touch it.

    Skol,
    I have enjoyed the jousts.( but you will never change my opinion ).

    Happy New Year to you and all sharetraders.

  12. #12
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    Yes Happy New Year to all you guys over there in NZ.

    Its still Yesterday over here on the Gold Coast, QLD and nearly 10pm so still another 2 hours to go.

    Right now its pissing down rain off and on. So another night at home and do some study for the next hour until new years. Squeeze a bit more knowledge out of 2009 so I can Kick @SS in 2010.

    All the very best to investors and traders and to those who contribute both TA and FA on this ShareTrader site.

    Resolutions????

    Maybe stop swearing.

    Continue seminars and learning.

    Get rid of DOG stocks.

    Only trade stocks in UP Trend and Sell ones in Down Trends.

    Only trade stocks that are liquid.

    Balance a 3 tone trading system.

    Keep loses SMALL, Keep Profits both small and BIG and at times HUGE

    Have an operation to rid myself of chronic pain.

  13. #13
    F.A.B. Huang Chung's Avatar
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    All the best for a happy New Year Drilly, and all the rest of the ST fraternity. Just come back from Southbank after the early fireworks (friend's young kids in tow), and it didn't even spit.

    Piss that cloud off Drilly .

  14. #14
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    Huang and others,

    Did you know tomorrow (or today for you in NZ) is a Digital Binary Day??

    Check this out. 010110

    Happy Binary day and Merry New year...lol

    Also,
    A typical QLD - Norther NSW trait for the Alco induced party animals. As if one New Year was not good enough, some have to indulge to have it twice...lol

    http://www.goldcoast.com.au/article/...ead-story.html
    Last edited by drillfix; 01-01-2010 at 01:40 AM.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skol View Post
    You're always making millions doctor but never telling us how, there's a few guys at work like that. You should be on the Riviera with your yacht.
    Go read my thread and posts on Indophil (IRN). Read my first post and than go read the T/O announcement on IRN in the ASX. And yes I do live near the beach, but no I dont own a yacht cos I am not into sailing.

    http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...&highlight=irn
    Last edited by Dr_Who; 01-01-2010 at 08:07 AM.
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

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