Gold

[Skol]

I will put some little dittys here from time to time to amuse you all. These are paragraphs from my collection of books on manias and bubbles.

"Investors overpaid for gold and silver (and also for hard currencies) in the late 1970s, not because they were optimistic about the future, but because they felt that the US Dollar would become worthless and that inflation would accelerate."

Sound familiar? History repeats itself.

This para. if for you tricha.

"According to Hitler, propaganda had to 'forever' target the masses, 'forever' repetitive and extremely simple. Also, it had to target the intellect of the least educated people in the crowd, and the larger the masses were, the lower the quality had to be."

This para. reminds me of the brokers endlessly exhorting us to buy gold or else.

[JBmurc]

Here's a couple paragraphs from Yahoo Finance on the top investor scams:

Leveraged Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)

Leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are a relatively new financial product, which is why investors may not be aware of the risks they carry. The funds, which trade throughout the day like a stock, use exotic financial instruments, including options, other derivatives and promise the potential to generate better returns than the market return. Given their volatility, these funds typically are not suitable for most retail investors.

Gold Bullion and Currency Scams
With the high price of gold, investors should beware of gold bullion scams in which the seller offers to retain "purchased" gold in a "secure vault" and promises to sell the gold for the investor as it gains in value. In many instances the gold does not exist.




Owning physical gold is for the amateurs. I want to see what happens when the gold price crashes and all these losers queue up outside their local bullion shop, which will, probably, coincidentally, be closed for the day. LOL

-Anyone that buys any bullion buys it for the long term just like if you brought a house debt free if the property market crashs down 10%-20% It doesn't mean you going panic an sell your house for 20% less than what you paid for it cause you know both Bullion a well built homes go up with Inflation long term...

Worldwide debters well know the only way out of their increasing debts is through Inflation the higher the Inflation they can cause the less the debts will burden them
just look at the massive increase of Fiat money worldwide

[Skol]

[QUOTE=JBmurc;300373]-Anyone that buys any bullion buys it for the long term just like if you brought a house debt free if the property market crashs down 10%-20% It doesn't mean you going panic an sell your house for 20% less than what you paid for it cause you know both Bullion a well built homes go up with Inflation long term...[QUOTE]
'
Then how come inflation for the last few years is about 8%, but gold has gone up 200%?
Just like the late '70s before the gold meltdown.
Gold peaked then at $970 and crashed to $300 under similar circumstances.
I can remember that crash quite clearly because one of the guys I worked with loaded up on dozens of Krugerrands shortly before the crash.
We haven't reached that stage of the mania yet so we've probably got a way to go.

Let me guess, "it's different this time" right?

"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."
Isaac Newton.

[Skol]

Maybe the final hysteria is close.
An idiot on another website says that "seeing gold at $37,000 or even $200,000 will be no big deal".
"Society will be a state of upheaval, chaos and martial law".

Here's something from one of my books which applies in this case.
"According to some analysts, the principal cause of the low level of intellect in crowds is that, for ideas and beliefs to be understood by all members of the crowd, they must be extremely simple. Only then can they appeal to and be adopted by the lowest intelligence within the crowd."

[Huang Chung]

Maybe the final hysteria is close.
An idiot on another website says that "seeing gold at $37,000 or even $200,000 will be no big deal".
"Society will be a state of upheaval, chaos and martial law".

Nah, just sound like your every day, garden variety gold bug......

[ENP]

I assume everyone thinks the gold and silver bubble is about to crash sometime in the next 6-24 months?

[Huang Chung]

Note that the following was written in 2007:

http://www.fool.com/investing/mutual...he-sp-500.aspx

If you take a long term view, there is no gold bubble....just catching up after centuries of underperformance.

[JBmurc]

I assume everyone thinks the gold and silver bubble is about to crash sometime in the next 6-24 months?

No not everyone just Skol Gold isn't going back to $250 I'd be very surprised If we even see sub 1000 US again

[ENP]

Note that the following was written in 2007:

http://www.fool.com/investing/mutual...he-sp-500.aspx

If you take a long term view, there is no gold bubble....just catching up after centuries of underperformance.

It made me worry that the chart might inspire some people to move some -- or even most -- of their money from the broad stock market into gold.

Did you read that part?

[Huang Chung]

Hopefully nobody gets inspired to make any significant move without doing their homework first.

Personally, I'm happy to be holding Silver Lake (gold producer) and Papillon (gold explorer), and am not interested in holding physical gold (for the obvious security/cost reasons), and wouldn't touch gold ETFs etc, as 1) i don't know anything about them and 2) they seem to have a bit of a smell to them. SLR and PIR seem to me to have a bright future, even if gold doesn't rise any further.

I really have no idea what the POG will do, but I don't expect it to go down considerably, because of the rising cost of production and the fall out from printing presses that have been working overtime.