Gold

[Skol]

What time frame are you looking at there Skol?

I bought most of my physical gold between 2006-2008, I'm pretty happy with the return (guess they're up about 100% on my average cost price).

I bought a fair few OGC shares in Jan 2009 and sold a chunk after they'd gone up 600% or so. I was happy with that.

I've had a bit of cash sitting in the bank the last few years but haven't seen much growth there.

Yes, you expect a decent return if you take risk, but gold's notoriously volatile and if there's a 1980 redux your return is likely to be very bleak indeed. Remember gold is at multi-year highs, the higher it goes the more chance of an implosion.

[skid]

The US dollar looks pretty volatile to me.Id be pretty nervous sitting on a large stack of that stuff.

[JBmurc]

AUD Gold doing well of late with the stronger USD $1667 some huge profits being made by the ASX producers

[Hoop]

The US dollar looks pretty volatile to me.Id be pretty nervous sitting on a large stack of that stuff.

Skid The USD index is in a now established uptrend....Uptrends shouldn't make you nervous...rather average up.

Edit:...as JB says the stronger USD is holding the value of Gold up using other currencies

I am sitting on 20% shares 80% cash one third of my cash is in USD. To date I have not gained or lost anything when converted the USD back to NZ$ ....

Now my 20% shares,,,thats a worry... all in red inkand in the process of being culled yet again

[JBmurc]

My Dear Extended Family:

Gold is headed into the $2000s. The mess in Europe is incurable and can only be damage controlled by QE.

MF Global got busted because credit default swaps did not work. MF Global had their Greek and Euro bond position covered by credit default swaps that they thought would protect them. SURPRISE!

They did not work because the Greek situation of a 50% haircut was given another name than "default" by a select group of Banksters and related parties.

97% of all credit default swaps written are carried by the major US banks. That means 97% of all the credit default swaps are the US usual Bankster suspects that swore to be more conservative in their ways.

If the Greek referendum is determined to represent a Greek default, major US banks will return to public insolvency and be bailed out yet another time because of the fraudulent nature OTC derivatives.

You think that game was rigged? China is coming to the rescue of no one. China specializes in picking up the pieces from troubled areas, not being troubled by troubled areas.

After Europe comes the US as media has been successful in keeping the focus of the problems off the US dollar. The only problem with gold shares is the hedge fund wild men and women that will in the end fail to stop the super bull market that is sure to come.

What is good for gold (QE) is also good for general equities so be careful on those that see doom everywhere.

Playing any one currency today is hard. Better hold a spread and seek to maintain buying power only. Competitive forced devaluation is the tool of strong currencies making it hard for exports in that currency. This is another example of making the Western world economic problems worse by curing the strong currency using liquidity to weaken it.

What today's economic managers don't know is Titanic in nature. There is no practical solution to the economic problems of today making gold in all forms desirable long term.

Regards,
Jim

[Skol]

Jim Sinclair. LOL, what a charlatan.

Here's his predictions from over 2 years ago;

1.Commercial, Retail and Industrial Properties looking at major default rates soon.

2.Basic govt. services will break down. Federal, State and Local govt revenues implode.

3.Commodities like food will be in short supply.

4.The USD will lose most of its value and reserve currency status and that age-old pearler that never happens, the dreaded hyperinflation.

5. The world will decouple from the US consumer as the USD crashes. 300 million consumers will have to relearn how to make things.

Have any of these things happened, of course not.

What a clown!

[drillfix]

Gold is headed into the $2000s. The mess in Europe is incurable and can only be damage controlled by QE.

Well,
As I type this post Gold is sitting at $1,740, so for Jim to be right, gold must first breakout past the intermediate resistance level on the daily chart of say $1,750

On the weekly chart it appears that it wants to retest the $1,695 level again to potentially carry onward.

Both the daily and weekly RSI levels remain strong just above 50 midpoint, and the daily EMA's could all become lined up for gold to continue its uptrend, however this already is shown in the medium term to be already in the uptrend with the EMA formation being aligned nicely.

Watch for the breakout above the $1750 as this generate quite a bit more action for Gold Technically, as well as fundamentally whilst the EU story either buys time or falls to pieces ready to move on to the Italian story waiting in the Cue.

[elZorro]

Well,
As I type this post Gold is sitting at $1,740, so for Jim to be right, gold must first breakout past the intermediate resistance level on the daily chart of say $1,750

On the weekly chart it appears that it wants to retest the $1,695 level again to potentially carry onward.

Both the daily and weekly RSI levels remain strong just above 50 midpoint, and the daily EMA's could all become lined up for gold to continue its uptrend, however this already is shown in the medium term to be already in the uptrend with the EMA formation being aligned nicely.

Watch for the breakout above the $1750 as this generate quite a bit more action for Gold Technically, as well as fundamentally whilst the EU story either buys time or falls to pieces ready to move on to the Italian story waiting in the Cue.

Thanks for that Drillfix, it lines up with many of the gold-leaning chart sites in their recent interpretation too. Even the latest deal for Greece, if it was actioned, would only solve part of their problem. They'd have to do another deal later. Maybe they'll borrow some money, write off some, and print some. Even then, many Greek workers will lose their jobs and/or benefits.

You have to ask, why are so many countries in nearly the same predicament? This inability to repay debt, in business terms, means an unprofitable operation. One of the biggest drains on world economies is the increasing cost of energy, and I think that is behind it all. I remember people moaning about petrol at NZ$1 a gallon. Well, it's now over $9, 30c a mile travelled (20c per km). Power/gas into homes comes at a considerable cost too. If energy costs are the problem, it's not going to be solved fast, the world is a big economy and we use a lot of energy just running it, let alone trying to grow it each year, so everything stays on an even keel.

I'd like to see a very concerted and urgent effort made into cheaper energy sources that are carbon neutral, and that is where funding needs to go. It would be far cheaper for taxpayers medium term than bailing out finance companies, banks, and entire countries. Meanwhile gold and gold stocks look to be a good bet for conserving capital. Gold is linked to the oil price.

The inflation adjusted (nominal) price of oil has never been higher than in the last few years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oi..._1861_2007.svg

[skid]

The point I was making in my earlier post was that many people think of their hard earned dollars as a constant entity and gold as an ever fluctuating and volatile commodity.
I was simply turning the tables.Most of the time imo you are backing one or the other.If your rubbishing Gold,then you are putting your faith in US dollars and vice versa. Its a matter of who you are betting on.

[Skol]

The point I was making in my earlier post was that many people think of their hard earned dollars as a constant entity and gold as an ever fluctuating and volatile commodity.
I was simply turning the tables.Most of the time imo you are backing one or the other.If your rubbishing Gold,then you are putting your faith in US dollars and vice versa. Its a matter of who you are betting on.

The USD doesn't have a habit of crashing a la 1980. Gold is a lot more volatile, more people need USD then people need gold. There's lots of things you can do with USD, what do you do with gold, put it in the safe and take out some insurance in case it gets stolen?