So assuming a massive meltdown in Europe doesn't happen, which it won't, what will happen to the POG then?
You'll only know that Europe avoids a massive meltdown in hindsight. Even if it avoids a massive meltdown, it can remain at, or close to the brink, for months or years. There will be no quick fixes.
US seems to be doing a bit better, but they still aren't creating jobs. Meanwhile, their debt mounts. You'd almost be forgiven for thinking everything is rosy in the US, but everybody is fixated on Europe right now, so the US woes are off the front page.....for now.
Meanwhile, gold remains an alternate store of wealth.
Last edited by Huang Chung; 12-11-2011 at 07:44 AM.
That's how I feel about it too, HC. Skol could be part of the problem, keeping planes in the air and so using up what may be precious fuel reserves, when what is required is a back-to-basics approach to living. Here in Hamilton (on the outskirts) we have the McGillicuddy Clan, who promote a "Great Leap Backwards" into feudal times. I'm not sure the leader has had a proper job since leaving university 25 years ago, but that's beside the point.
Hi EZ.
The chart in that link of the Gold/Dow ratio would seem to indicate that the 1987 crash was nothing more than a blip in the rise of stock value against gold. Is this indicating that gold is not a safe haven from a markrt crash?
That's how I feel about it too, HC. Skol could be part of the problem, keeping planes in the air and so using up what may be precious fuel reserves, when what is required is a back-to-basics approach to living.
I'm happy to report that the airline business is going very well indeed and aircraft are mostly full, so the majority are not hunkering down waiting for Armageddon, they're enjoying themselves and spending money.
I was in San Francisco on the ferry a while back, it was full of Italians, so it's not as bad as everyone thinks, the world is proceeding quite normally in many respects.
There is terrific demand for aircraft and qualified staff. I read the other day that there is a requirement for 550,000 pilots by 2020.
Hi EZ.
The chart in that link of the Gold/Dow ratio would seem to indicate that the 1987 crash was nothing more than a blip in the rise of stock value against gold. Is this indicating that gold is not a safe haven from a markrt crash?
Sorry Strat, I'm slow replying, was looking at Big Muffin Serious Band video clips. But I take your point. The Dow/Gold ratio chart (latest one was linear in format by the look of it) might head back in the other direction at some stage, and it could be dramatic. But note that the ratio usually drops back to about 2, a TA guy like Hoop (also of Hamilton fame) can draw that in. So as the ratio is currently at 6.79, what does this mean for the gold price, and unfortunately, for stocks, if it happens once again, before the worldwide recovery?
And the worldwide recovery will happen when...a whole lot of cash is printed off...huge debts are written off...we all work three times as hard but accept half the return...or some bright sods find us all some cheap energy again.
Skol: There is terrific demand for aircraft and qualified staff. I read the other day that there is a requirement for 550,000 pilots by 2020.
Over half a million pilots? The world has gone mad. It must be a bubble. Airline outlook for 2012
Well my conservative selection of Aussie shares was up 16% last month, so that's not too bad, like the birds, gold's headed south for the winter I reckon.
And the worldwide recovery will happen when...a whole lot of cash is printed off...huge debts are written off...we all work three times as hard but accept half the return...or some bright sods find us all some cheap energy again.
Maybe true for Europe and the US, but will it be true for Hamilton, NZ? Are (hyper)inflation and or deflation necessarily (or even likely to be) global phenomena. Seems to me we could see deflation followed by inflation in both Europe and NZ - but that NZ could be delayed by 2-5 years.... so in terms of investment strategy, NZD (and AUD and other Asian currencies) might well be fine to hold while Europe inflates and then swap the trade.
Maybe also for now the neutral NZD period while Europe deflates a while longer, when holding NZ/AU/Asian equities might beat holding cash and fixed interest for a bit, until deflation squeeze hits here because we too run out of fiscal headroom to stimulate locally against global weakness without creating excessive debt.
Maybe true for Europe and the US, but will it be true for Hamilton, NZ? Are (hyper)inflation and or deflation necessarily (or even likely to be) global phenomena. Seems to me we could see deflation followed by inflation in both Europe and NZ - but that NZ could be delayed by 2-5 years.... so in terms of investment strategy, NZD (and AUD and other Asian currencies) might well be fine to hold while Europe inflates and then swap the trade.
Maybe also for now the neutral NZD period while Europe deflates a while longer, when holding NZ/AU/Asian equities might beat holding cash and fixed interest for a bit, until deflation squeeze hits here because we too run out of fiscal headroom to stimulate locally against global weakness without creating excessive debt.
Thoughts?
Hi Lizard, I'm doing my best at work to make a dollar against global weakness, so I have high aspirations for my investment dollars. I'm still keen on the theory of a goldie multi-bagger eventually. Meanwhile I would be better off with money in any bank earning low interest, or using it at work. But I know as soon as I pull the money out, my old shares will take off.
What do you think of the big theory I have (OK, I think I pinched it from many others) that all of the world's troubles are related to the current cost of energy in all its forms?
Originally Posted by Skol
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