Gold

[corran]

The very latest Jim Rogers fudge:

"I expect gold to reach $2400 sometime in the next 5 to 20 years".

LOL, half the goldbugs will be in retirement villages by then.

Nothing like hedging your bets.

I think he's just being honest and saying that it will end in a bubble but that he doesn't have a clue when that will happen, e.g, he says the following in reference to the bubble "I hope I am smart enough to sell but when that happens it will probably double."

He's obviously a smart dude - he made enough money with the quantum fund to retire when he was 37 and then do fun things like ride around the world on a motorbike. And has been pretty spot on with a lot of his forecasts.

Here's a quote of his you might like Skol...

“Acknowledge the complexity of the world and resist the impression that you easily understand it. People are too quick to accept conventional wisdom, because it sounds basically true and it tends to be reinforced by both their peers and opinion leaders, many of whome have never looked at whether the facts support the received wisdom. It's a basic fact of life that many things "everybody knows" turn out to be wrong.”

[Skol]

No one knows what's going to happen, but I'll hand it to the goldbugs they have to be the world's biggest optimists.

I saw a post from a goldbug the other day complaining that "gold should be $10,000 by now".

LOL

Well it's not, nor will it be for decades, maybe hundreds of years, who knows, but the diehards seem to have made themselves scarce just recently. I think it's dawning on them that the real world is a little different from some of the get-rich-quick gold Disneyland fantasies they've been having.

[elZorro]

No one knows what's going to happen, but I'll hand it to the goldbugs they have to be the world's biggest optimists.

I saw a post from a goldbug the other day complaining that "gold should be $10,000 by now".

LOL

Well it's not, nor will it be for decades, maybe hundreds of years, who knows, but the diehards seem to have made themselves scarce just recently. I think it's dawning on them that the real world is a little different from some of the get-rich-quick gold Disneyland fantasies they've been having.

Gidday there Skol, thought I'd send you a graph, you'll need to buy in at $1500 for a bargain. Especially as you've admitted that gold will rise well above where it's at today. It's just the timeframe that we disagree on then.

[Skol]

Gidday there Skol, thought I'd send you a graph, you'll need to buy in at $1500 for a bargain. Especially as you've admitted that gold will rise well above where it's at today. It's just the timeframe that we disagree on then.

$1500, no thanks, maybe $600, somewhere near the mean.

If Jim Rogers is correct and the worse case scenario prevails-gold gets to $2400 in 20 years time-that's a compound interest rate of 1.7% p.a. The risk isn't worth it, better off money in the bank. You'd actually be losing money after insurance, storage costs, buyers premium etc.


Since the end of Sept. the XGD has formed a symmetrical triangle, it seems to me. It's broken out to the downside.

[JBmurc]

-Fiat money average histrionic lifespan 47 years -----Gold/silver still holding values for over 5000yrs

[Skol]

-Fiat money average histrionic lifespan 47 years -----Gold/silver still holding values for over 5000yrs

You'd better buy some USD then because they've been around since 1792. Gold is not a currency.

[JBmurc]

You'd better buy some USD then because they've been around since 1792. Gold is not a currency.

No the current Fiat USD has been round since 71 before it was backed by GOLD it's getting to the end of it's life IMHO just like the euro

[Skol]

No the current Fiat USD has been round since 71 before it was backed by GOLD it's getting to the end of it's life IMHO just like the euro

The fact that it was backed by gold makes no difference, Nixon was smart enough to realise that having a modern currency backed by an anachronism wasn't a good idea.

[JBmurc]

By the early 1970s, as the costs of the Vietnam War and increased domestic spending accelerated inflation,[1] the U.S. was running a balance-of-payments deficit and a trade deficit, the first in the 20th century. The year 1970 was the crucial turning point, because foreign arbitrage of the U.S. dollar caused governmental gold coverage of the paper dollar to decline from 55% to 22%. That, in the view of neoclassical economics and the Austrian School, represented the point where holders of the U.S. dollar lost faith in the U.S. government's ability to cut its budget and trade deficits.
By 1971, the money supply had increased by 10%.[1] In the first six months of 1971, $22 billion in assets left the U.S.[2] In May 1971, inflation-wary West Germany was the first member country to unilaterally leave the Bretton Woods system — unwilling to devalue the Deutsche Mark in order to prop up the dollar.[1] In the following three months, West Germany's move strengthened their economy. Simultaneously, the dollar dropped 7.5% against the Deutsche Mark.[1]
Due to the excess printed dollars, and the negative U.S. trade balance, other nations began demanding fulfillment of America's "promise to pay" – that is, the redemption of their dollars for gold. Switzerland redeemed $50 million of paper for gold in July.[1] France, in particular, repeatedly made aggressive demands, and acquired $191 million in gold, further depleting the gold reserves of the U.S.[1] On August 5, 1971, Congress released a report recommending devaluation of the dollar, in an effort to protect the dollar against foreign price-gougers.[1] Still, on August 9, 1971, as the dollar dropped in value against European currencies, Switzerland unilaterally withdrew the Swiss franc from the Bretton Woods system

[Skol]

The world hasn't ended, it's proceeding reasonably normally I would have thought, there's good times and bad times, right? That's ancient history, 40 years ago, you're living the past, pining for the good old days.