Gold

[Skol]

Everybody's predicting gold can only go higher, you can't miss.

What's that mean to the trained mind EZ?

A contrarian warning?

The herd is usually wrong.

In Nov 2008, Peter Schiff, one of the 'experts' predicted hyperinflation, destruction of the USD and gold $5000.

Hahhaaha, I love checking up on the 'experts' predictions, what a laugh.

[Silverlight]

Thread started 31/12/2009 with the prediction:

we've seen the highs for the next few years.

Gold price 31/12/2009 was 1096 USD, today 1732 USD, a return of 58%.

The bubble risk is getting closer Skol, however this still has a few years to go, and you have missed some nice gains, versus your agriculture play, AAC, which has fallen from 1.49 to 1.39 over this time, it doesn't pay dividends either

I know which holding I would prefer in my portfolio at a 5 or 10% weight

[Skol]

I've missed out sure, but had money in the bank which hasn't been a bad return when you think about it over the last few years while everything else has gone pear shaped.

The big problem with gold is this:

http://thevictoryreport.org/2011/04/...bubble-charts/

Everyone rushes for the exit at the same time, not many get out before the theatre burns down.

I doubt the 'investors' in gold shares would agree with you, the gold indexes down between 25% and 38%.

[airedale]

Everybody's predicting gold can only go higher, you can't miss.

What's that mean to the trained mind EZ?

A contrarian warning?

The herd is usually wrong.

In Nov 2008, Peter Schiff, one of the 'experts' predicted hyperinflation, destruction of the USD and gold $5000.

Hahhaaha, I love checking up on the 'experts' predictions, what a laugh.

Skol, destruction of the US$ is most certainly happening every time the printing presses run with QE 1,2,and soon 3.
The rest will follow in due course. $5000 who knows when, but $2,000 this year is my humble guesstimate.

[Skol]

Skol, destruction of the US$ is most certainly happening every time the printing presses run with QE 1,2,and soon 3.
The rest will follow in due course. $5000 who knows when, but $2,000 this year is my humble guesstimate.

It's a fallacy that the 'printing presses run' and that Bernanke prints money.
The Treasury prints money, not the Fed.

From The Telegraph;

Patrick Connolly, an adviser at AWD Chase de Vere, said: "We are incredibly wary of any asset class that has risen so much in value. It is a mistake to think that any investment will keep going up indefinitely, and, when the price of gold does fall, it could be far and fast."

As he pointed out, when gold prices tumbled in 1980 – after a decade of strong gains – prices fell by 65pc in less than two and a half years. More worryingly, it then took a further 28 years for prices to regain their 1980 peak, and this is without taking inflation into account.

"Those who believe gold is a safe haven could be in for a nasty shock," Mr Connolly said. "Gold hasn't always proven itself to be a secure asset and its value has suffered from high levels of volatility, resulting in investors making or losing large amounts of money over some very short periods

[Silverlight]

I've missed out sure, but had money in the bank which hasn't been a bad return when you think about it over the last few years while everything else has gone pear shaped.

The big problem with gold is this:

http://thevictoryreport.org/2011/04/...bubble-charts/

Everyone rushes for the exit at the same time, not many get out before the theatre burns down.

I doubt the 'investors' in gold shares would agree with you, the gold indexes down between 25% and 38%.

What are you talking about? On the same time scale 30/12/2009 to today:

GDX index up 24%
HUI index up 28%
XAU index up 20%

I think maybe your charts are upside down...

[Skol]

What are you talking about? On the same time scale 30/12/2009 to today:

GDX index up 24%
HUI index up 28%
XAU index up 20%

I think maybe your charts are upside down...

RELATIVE to gold.

HUI vs Gld last 1 year.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=1y&s...&z=l&q=l&c=gld

The XGD is down over 5% for 1 year, but down 37% RELATIVE to GLD.

[lakedaemonian]

Everybody's predicting gold can only go higher, you can't miss.

What's that mean to the trained mind EZ?

A contrarian warning?

The herd is usually wrong.

In Nov 2008, Peter Schiff, one of the 'experts' predicted hyperinflation, destruction of the USD and gold $5000.

Hahhaaha, I love checking up on the 'experts' predictions, what a laugh.

You should check with one expert: specifically, Eric Janszen and his documented analysis and predictions since 1999.

Then get back to us.

I challenge you to find anyone with a documented investment performance over a decade that matches or exceeds his.

His portfolio has been T bills and Gold(30%). It now includes private equity.

He also called silver 48 hours before the crash just under a year ago.

Eric is a gold bull because, like democracy, it is the least bad option for the foreseeable future.

[Skol]

Yeah, I've had a look at Eric, but he's a bit cagey about his predictions, I would be too.

He predicted the DOW would be 5000 which of course hasn't happened and he says gold will top out at $2500 to $5000.

So do lot of people, I'm predicting gold will be $2500, but not sure which decade or century.

He likes to sell books.

[elZorro]

From NZResources today:

Gold moves back into vogue

Simon Hartley — 3 February 2012
Gold is back in vogue with investors, having retraced 10% in value on the spot global market in the past month and prompting forecasts it could go beyond $US2000/oz ($NZ2,404.60/oz) this year.
Spot market gold has risen from $US1,564 to $US1,781/oz in recent weeks, a 13.8% gain, while on Wednesday it traded up slightly by 0.3%, starting the day around $US1,736/oz.
However, for New Zealand investors the weakening US dollar and strengthening Kiwi dollar are eroding gains on the rising price.
Sentiment for gold at the end of January compared starkly with late-December, when prices dropped by more than 10% in their biggest monthly fall, since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in an investor "dash for cash." Reuters reported.
A $US400/oz price drop from last September's record $US1,920.30/oz had left investors questioning whether gold had ended an 11-year rally.
Forsyth Barr broker Suzanne Kinnaird said fundamental drivers for the first half of 2012 pointed to a firm gold demand, despite the absence of seasonal demand from India.
"The gold price has recovered from the lows at the end of 2011, with prices snapping back.
"Gold has reached levels consistent with its long-term uptrend path since late-2008," Ms Kinnaird said.
Craigs Investment Partners broker Peter McIntyre said several factors had aligned to boost gold's gains; including a weakened US dollar, some buying support from Asian investors and it having been "over-sold," when it slid below $US1,600/oz several weeks ago.
"We expect gold prices will recover given negative real interest rates, central bank diversification, a resumption in US dollar weakness and the ongoing risks to the European financial system," he said.
While the price appreciation beyond 10% looked attractive, the Kiwi exchange rate with the Greenback had during that period risen by about 6%, from US77.85c to US82.57c.
McInture said the price levels look good in $US terms, but turn quite sickly when seen in $NZ terms. Global uncertainty was also making equities investment less attractive and with US Treasury bonds offering "dismal" interest rates, more investors were turning to gold.
Suzanne Kinnaird said the technical view was that the upward trend in gold "should remain intact", and Forsyth Barr was targeting a price move above $US2,000/oz in 2012, with McIntyre similarly predicting a rise to $US2,000/oz during July to September, before weakening in the fourth quarter.
Kinnard said the three-month gold forecast stood at $US1,800/oz and the 12-month forecast at $US2,200/oz, while Peter McIntyre estimated the gold average for calendar 2012 would be $US1,825/oz and, for 2013, an average of $US2,000/oz.
*Simon Hartley is senior business reporter for the Otago Daily Times.