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Thread: Gold

  1. #3581
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by elZorro View Post
    I agree with that Drillfix- despite the facts that you can't eat it, it costs an absolute fortune (apparently) to store it, and it pays no dividends, a lot of people seem to want more gold. A bit like new cars really, only better. Great article about exploration stocks here.

    http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20120...s-explode.html
    yes I agree the higher risk section of the Gold/silver sectors have been hammered unfairly and should rebound strongly during this year my two investment CVR , PXG are two to have been well oversold , going be some big money made by the smart ST's
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

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    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    yes I agree the higher risk section of the Gold/silver sectors have been hammered unfairly and should rebound strongly during this year my two investment CVR , PXG are two to have been well oversold , going be some big money made by the smart ST's
    You've got it the wrong way round, shares are about right and gold is grossly overpriced.

    The XGD is 10% behind gold for the last 6 months and the XGD is 26% behind the S&P500.

  3. #3583
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skol View Post
    You've got it the wrong way round, shares are about right and gold is grossly overpriced.

    The XGD is 10% behind gold for the last 6 months and the XGD is 26% behind the S&P500.
    really,,, don't think so tim...the gold price is the gold price you can jump up n down all you want and call it overpriced but as you should have learnt long ago Gold is in a strong Bull trend just like debts worldwide...

    CVR start up year production numbers matched to current Gold silver prices give a first year cashflow of some 64mill USD the current market value is 18.8mill AUD valued down on the wait to start production any day now .....to say this is fair value is nuts
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

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    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    CVR start up year production numbers matched to current Gold silver prices give a first year cashflow of some 64mill USD the current market value is 18.8mill AUD valued down on the wait to start production any day now .....to say this is fair value is nuts
    CVR, yeah, not looking good, not another of your 'good deals' is it? Like NAV?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skol View Post
    CVR, yeah, not looking good, not another of your 'good deals' is it? Like NAV?
    you just keep an eye on CVR ....you might just get to see your first 10 bagger in the making
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  6. #3586
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    Soundest investment's for the coming volatility

    http://www.silverbearcafe.com/privat...olatility.html
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

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    You can pat a pile of gold but it won't respond..a bit like the throwaway "has anyone ever seen the economy?"

    Skol, that article produced this response from someone: apparently there's a very strong recent (negative?) correlation between the gold price and the long-term interest rates of other investments.

    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/treasuries-tips-and-gold-wonkish/

    Gold goes up because other simple investments show they'll have poor returns in the future.


    Sounds reasonable, nice and simple. US 20 year Interest rate graph, look at it beside the US gold price for the same period. While gold had an increasing trend throughout, it was certainly pulled back when interest rates rose, and accelerated when they dropped. A bit of a shame that interest rates might be bottoming out then..
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    Last edited by elZorro; 26-02-2012 at 09:31 PM.

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    EZ,

    Well anyone with a minimal background in mathematics will take a look at the gold chart and see it's exponential, an element of danger there right now most goldbugs seem to be overlooking.

    I disagree with the article in one respect, it says gold is 'scarce'

    Hardly, in 2010, 2500 tonnes were mined and last year over 2800 tonnes were mined. The gold price increased most of last year and so far all of this year, to keep it rising and perpetuating the 'greater fool' theory, more suckers are required as well as soaking up the $160 billion worth being mined each year.

    A mate of mine reckons 1000 tonnes of it has been mined at Martha Hill and there's more than that under Coromandel township, plus the ranges are loaded with it + Great Barrier Island.

    Scarce, I doubt it.
    Last edited by Skol; 27-02-2012 at 10:48 AM.

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    I think scarce might mean scarce as a proportion of the Earth's crust. Miners will always work over old known ground if the price is right.

    I had a thought, that as gold is also tied to the oil price, and that's going up at the moment, so will gold, even if 20 year interest rates bottom out or rise a small amount. Back up the truck..

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