Gold

[Skol]

USD up.
Gold down.
Silver down big time.
HUI down 3.31%, another massacre on the XGD coming up.

[JBmurc]

Think we have seen the bottom in this retreat .....I got pretty close last time ...will see if I'm right next few weeks

-6 month low $1540
-12 month low $1486 (I'd be worried if it moves below this over the next few days)
-5yr low $641 (only in Skol wet dreams)

[Skol]

Think we have seen the bottom in this retreat .....I got pretty close last time ...will see if I'm right next few weeks

-6 month low $1540
-12 month low $1486 (I'd be worried if it moves below this over the next few days)
-5yr low $641 (only in Skol wet dreams)

Well as I said above, Jon Nadler says there's a $1527 level, so that's about where we are now, and if it breaches that (which it will), next stop $1400.

$1400 gold = + or - $24 silver.

I don't know how many times I've read recently, 'buy, (gold or silver) the bottom's in', then it plunges to the next level.

Yeah, right, it's only just started.

Lucky I've got a safe full of USD for my vacation in Europe later this year, it'll be nearly free the way the USD's appreciated over the last few weeks.

[elZorro]

Well as I said above, Jon Nadler says there's a $1527 level, so that's about where we are now, and if it breaches that (which it will), next stop $1400.

$1400 gold = + or - $24 silver.

I don't know how many times I've read recently, 'buy, (gold or silver) the bottom's in', then it plunges to the next level.

Yeah, right, it's only just started.

Lucky I've got a safe full of USD for my vacation in Europe later this year, it'll be nearly free the way the USD's appreciated over the last few weeks.

Maybe you should cash in those USDs Skol, some more talk about QE in the USA being possible, and gold ramps up $30 in two hours, holding near $1575 at the moment. A smattering of comments on gold:

http://www.goldalert.com/gold-predictions/

The NZ Mint says that gold should not go lower than US$1300 an ounce, being what it costs on average to get it out of the ground. I still think gold will bounce back quite a way from here, and my investment is based on recovery costs of US$800 an ounce.

[Skol]

EZ,

Nothing goes down in a straight line, gold's taking a break before the next onslaught.

We've reached the time of maximum uncertainty in the Eurozone and gold can only rally $35.
2 commentators in the last 2 days are saying gold will be $1300, one in 3 months time and the other at the end of the year.

"the NZ mint says"

Mike Maloney says gold will be $20,000, Jim Rickards says $12,455, and lots of other clowns say anywhere between $2500 and $10,000, but you wanna take those dreamers with a grain of salt.

I would imagine the NZ Mint is trying to reassure lots of very anxious punters.

[Vtrader]

"It is also possible that this is the first 3 of a greater three, described as a combination correction. From the duration of this 3, a combination correction may take until May 2012 to complete..." The rest of the Previous post here


Could just be gold has retraced an ABC completing at $1530.

I will be extra vigilant looking for other cofirmations.
Good hunting scouts
I count EWT =C, but the current position could be something else also...
V.

[Xerof]

Excuse me for poking my nose in but.....This is candlestick, not EWT

For those techies out there, on the weekly gold chart 1525 area was a level of resistance back in May 2011, which has subsequently proven to be a strong level of support on two, now three occasions.

On the daily chart, there is a perfect 'pin bar' reversal over the past three days trading. Google if you want to know more

For the more conservative, wait another week to see if next weeks activity can also form a pin bar reversal on the weekly timeframe - if so, fly me to the moon.........

[elZorro]

Excuse me for poking my nose in but.....This is candlestick, not EWTFor those techies out there, on the weekly gold chart 1525 area was a level of resistance back in May 2011, which has subsequently proven to be a strong level of support on two, now three occasions.On the daily chart, there is a perfect 'pin bar' reversal over the past three days trading. Google if you want to know moreFor the more conservative, wait another week to see if next weeks activity can also form a pin bar reversal on the weekly timeframe - if so, fly me to the moon.........

Xerof, I take it that if I was versed in TA charting, gold is expected to go higher? Certainly recovered quite well during Friday.

Even amongst goldbugs, many don't believe in manipulation, at least in holding the price of gold down. As the US$ is dropping back and heading for the trendline of about 79, it looks like money is flowing out of USD and into gold holdings at the moment.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/05/prec...-manipulation/

[Hoop]

Xerof, I take it that if I was versed in TA charting, gold is expected to go higher? Certainly recovered quite well during Friday.

Even amongst goldbugs, many don't believe in manipulation, at least in holding the price of gold down. As the US$ is dropping back and heading for the trendline of about 79, it looks like money is flowing out of USD and into gold holdings at the moment.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/05/prec...-manipulation/

ElZ... yes gold upwards for the short term at least

TA is only a graphic measure of group investor behaviour from past trading, displayed visually on a chart or some other visual form of display..
I'm very instringued with Xerof's post.

Below is a longer term crude chart probably not a great example from me as I'm not that knowledgeable when it comes to Candlesticks and pin bar indentification..

but.. ...the subject under discussion is swing reversals and pin bar trading is one form of trading methodologies used to identify a swing change...From my chart and my untrained eyes I can see many swing reversals and many have that pin bar spike or tail behaviour of intraday testing a critical level whether it be S&R line trend line, Moving average, a Fibonacci Retracement ,or whatever....

...Hmmm...if anyone used this form of trading they would have done very well with gold...Xerof seems to be very knowledgable in this area...I'd say he has done very well!!!
I hope he can teach me some more about pin bars....

Mixing my discipline with it it does seem the latest swing reversal has happened and as the Fibonacci Retracement is huge (over 50%) meaning more sold into the down movement indicating a bearish trend and a bull market correction continuation ...so... If I was a medium term swing trader, I would not get terribly excited that this recent upward retrace would be big, my eyes ATM would be focused on the primary downtrend line and the S&R line at 1620 as a possible top and exit if the negative signs reappear there..(incl a pin bar?)...an optimist would hope for a breakout upwards and out of that descending triangle formation at this point and for Gold to resume its bull uptrend.

There is a 61.8% Fibonacci there as well (shown on chart) but maybe another Fib retracement needs to be drawn..eh??? (top to bottom) showing a 38.2% fib retracement back up to 1630 (not drawn on chart).

If I'm right..(xerof please correct me)..does April 5 qualify as a Pin bar following a gap down if so then its a gem of a swing reversal event the tail stabbing through the primary uptrend line together with the 61.8% fib...indicating the POG isn't ready to Technically break down at that time but the fib being touched at 61.8% indicates it may break down with that next swing down?....it did after a couple of swings !!!

Where to longer term??...It seems with descending triangle formations in a longer term up trend they indicate that everyone that has wanted gold has already bought in resulting in price weakness due to lack of more buyers ..this creates a typical Bull market correction behaviour....However the break of the long term primary uptrend about the 7th May is a big TA worry....There is usually a breakout one way or the other about 60% through a triangle and we are there at this point now...since this recent low point touched the triangle bottom there is no breakout upward sign signal...It doesn't indicate it won't happen though a large Fib % retrace doen't help for a positive break though either .................we will have to wait and see........

[Skol]

The large descending triangle above should, if my TA book is correct, breakout in the direction of the original trend, which is downwards.

We should see a breakout below $1540.