Gold

[Skol]

[QUOTE=percy;376584]

1.

I've heard the rain isn't falling in India, less rain means less crops, means less gold sales.

Bangladesh Floods means it is pouring down.

Not according to Jon Nadler:

Several days ago we also mentioned that it would be wise to keep an eye out for…the weather as regards future (fall) festival-related gold demand in India. Less rain means fewer crops, which, in turn, means less cash available to spend on baubles by rural India’s residents. While there is still time (and hope) that the worst start to the monsoon season in three years could be turned around, the current situation not only has farmers and the weathermen up at night, but also the country’s jewelers. The season ends with the harvest in September and is followed by a traditional buildup of bullion demand into Diwali – which starts this year on the 13th of November.

[percy]

[QUOTE=Skol;376588]

Not according to Jon Nadler:

Several days ago we also mentioned that it would be wise to keep an eye out for…the weather as regards future (fall) festival-related gold demand in India. Less rain means fewer crops, which, in turn, means less cash available to spend on baubles by rural India’s residents. While there is still time (and hope) that the worst start to the monsoon season in three years could be turned around, the current situation not only has farmers and the weathermen up at night, but also the country’s jewelers. The season ends with the harvest in September and is followed by a traditional buildup of bullion demand into Diwali – which starts this year on the 13th of November.

Would appear he is wrong as the floods prove.

[Skol]

[QUOTE=percy;376590]

Would appear he is wrong as the floods prove.

It seems that Jon Nadler is right. Bangladesh is not India, check your schoolboy atlas.

From the Times of India:

PATNA: With rain god still not showering his blessings on the state, it's just not the common man who is feeling the heat, but the farmers are also a worried lot as sowing of kharif crops might be seriously hit if it doesn't rain in the state in the next few days. So far, there has been a 40% rain deficit in Bihar.

Though the situation is not alarming yet for the crops, it might turn grim, particularly for paddy and sugarcane crops, if the deficiency of rainfall persists, warn experts.

[elZorro]

[QUOTE=percy;376590]

Would appear he is wrong as the floods prove.

I found this link on the monsoon weather in India, looks to be trending in a normal way, the upper areas of India usually get the monsoon early in July. Should be a normal Diwali festival with conspicuous gold consumption...

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/d...llindianew.pdf

[Skol]

[QUOTE=elZorro;376594]

I found this link on the monsoon weather in India, looks to be trending in a normal way, the upper areas of India usually get the monsoon early in July. Should be a normal Diwali festival with conspicuous gold consumption...

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/d...llindianew.pdf

Correct EZ.

'Should' be normal but at the moment it isn't.


Weatherman is also very cautious in predicting the nature of the monsoon. Patna Met department director A K Sen said, "The monsoon was deficient in the state mainly due to non-formation of strong weather system in the Bay of Bengal and northward shift of the heat trough towards the foothills of Himalayas. This happens in exceptional circumstances only." He warned, "Even if it rains sufficiently in July, but adequate rain doesn't continue till September, the overall rainfall for the season would remain scanty and it would be difficult to overcome the deficit."

[JBmurc]

And now for some examples of non-fiat currencies that have survived....?

well any currencies of old that were made up of real assets i.e gold silver coins value has survived and increased massively compare that to a roll of old paper money....

Now don't get me wrong I don't see the world going back to silver gold coins as a means of barter / trade but i do think once the current world reserve fiat ponzi scheme of fractional banking mass creation of debt finally hits the wall which it will as soon the interest on the debt will become larger than the GDP , a new world currency will come about most likely backed but some real assets in turn devaluing the old debts ....gold/silver is a great store of value the likes of the USD has lost 90%+ of it's purchasing power

[Skol]

well any currencies of old that were made up of real assets i.e gold silver coins value has survived and increased massively compare that to a roll of old paper money....

Now don't get me wrong I don't see the world going back to silver gold coins as a means of barter / trade but i do think once the current world reserve fiat ponzi scheme of fractional banking mass creation of debt finally hits the wall which it will as soon the interest on the debt will become larger than the GDP , a new world currency will come about most likely backed but some real assets in turn devaluing the old debts ....gold/silver is a great store of value the likes of the USD has lost 90%+ of it's purchasing power

Silver has lost 50% and gold 20% of its purchasing power in the last 12 months - think I'll stick with USD.

[upside_umop]

well any currencies of old that were made up of real assets i.e gold silver coins value has survived and increased massively compare that to a roll of old paper money....

Now don't get me wrong I don't see the world going back to silver gold coins as a means of barter / trade but i do think once the current world reserve fiat ponzi scheme of fractional banking mass creation of debt finally hits the wall which it will as soon the interest on the debt will become larger than the GDP , a new world currency will come about most likely backed but some real assets in turn devaluing the old debts ....gold/silver is a great store of value the likes of the USD has lost 90%+ of it's purchasing power

JB, I think you're missing the point. Everyone knows that the fiat money system creates inflation, that's no secret. The RBNZ has a target of 1 - 3% over the medium term. Why? Because it creates an environment of certainty. This 1 - 3% is seen to be the opportunity cost that won't incentivise peoples purchasing decisions over the medium term.

Look at Japan. Over the last 2 decades they have had little inflation and economic growth. The Japanese expected prices to fall and therefore held off buying...this in turn slows down part of the economy as they can't sell things. It spirals and spreads. The US don't want this to happen....

On the other hand, look at Zimbabwe. Nobody wants hyperinflation either....and there is no sign of it coming here. Sure the USD might have lost 90% of it's purchasing power over the years, but what has real income done?

I've said and shown you before that when we were on the gold standard, we were in recession more often than not...and that's fact. Gold is not coming back...only if we end up Cowboys and Indians again.

[hal]

Silver has lost 50% and gold 20% of its purchasing power in the last 12 months - think I'll stick with USD.

Just to be fair can you quote the Gold & Silver price from 12 months ago.

[elZorro]

Gold's just taking a breather, here's a measured approach in this article. About a month and a half old, but not much has changed.

http://www.investmentu.com/2012/may/...-forecast.html