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Thread: Gold

  1. #4111
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    An amazing 15 posts on this thread between breakfast yeterday and morning smoko today. I think that I will tune out for a while. Call it a TKO, Skol.

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    Whether Q3 or not Gold will always be in demand. Among indians and chinese(asians) they always give their children and families gold. I always wondered why? Now I realised ....That's the only thing that will retain its value. No matter how poor they are, they will always try to buy gold, knowing very well the value of it. So if the price does not rise these are the group of people who will benefit from it.... they stock pile more..

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    Quote Originally Posted by gv1 View Post
    Whether Q3 or not Gold will always be in demand. Among indians and chinese(asians) they always give their children and families gold. I always wondered why? Now I realised ....That's the only thing that will retain its value. No matter how poor they are, they will always try to buy gold, knowing very well the value of it. So if the price does not rise these are the group of people who will benefit from it.... they stock pile more..
    Untrue.

    Read my post above, the sales of gold in India are at a net zero (0) when scrap gold is taken into account. Sales in China are falling as well, in fact even the World Gold Council, ( if you can trust them) have admitted that worldwide sales of gold are down.

    In India, down about 50% in the last year, 18% in the last quarter.

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    Hey EZ, Hope you haven't got too much riding on gold or silver.


    'Veteran market analyst Ned Schmidt’s latest Gold Thoughts (Sept. 6) encapsulates the current market paradigm quite neatly. First, Mr. Schmidt cautions that “the recent Gold rally, and the purely speculative run in Silver, have [both] been built on the expectation that an all-in, massive monetization of US government debt would occur. If that is not the case and the stealth approach is chosen (whereby the Fed sets small, open-ended regular bond purchases as the preferred course to an all-out QE3), part of the rally, perhaps a significant part, will be given up.”

    So, what about the day after the Fed? Mr. Schmidt advises that “without an immediate 'collapse' of the dollar on 13 September, the current rally of Gold will be extremely vulnerable. As most of the Gold 'bought' in the past few months has been really Gold derivatives, not physical metal, the vulnerability is high. Buyers of those futures are not going to take delivery. Now is not the time to be chasing the fantasies of the Street. Was not Facebook enough of a lesson on that? Gold has been the 'game of the month', and Silver has been the speculators’ play toy. Do not confuse a short-term game of fantasy speculation in the derivatives markets with investment.”

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    Gold zooms above Rs 32,000-level

    IndiaTimes , posted ON 06 Sep 2012 AT 18:16:24 Economy omg




    'Gold to hit high of Rs 32,000 by Diwali' IndiaTimes - 12 days ago
    Gold hits new record at Rs 31k on strong global cues IndiaTimes - 16 days ago



    NEW DELHI: Gold today crossed the coveted Rs 32,000-mark for the first time in the national capital, driven by increased buying by stockists ahead of the marriage season amid a firming global trend.

    The precious metal gained Rs 320 to Rs 32,300 per 10 grams. It has gained by Rs 1,555 per 10 grams in the last two weeks.

    Bullion merchants said the trading sentiment also bolstered as gold climbed in international markets on speculation the European Central Bank will announce unlimited purchases of government bonds to defuse the euro-zone debt crisis, increasing demand for bullion as an alternate investment.

    Gold is likely to scale new heights in the coming days for the marriage season, they added.

    "Gold is on upward march and likely to touch new peaks in the coming days for festivals...," All India Sarafa Association General Secretary Surender Jain said, adding that a firming global trend and weak rupee will make imports of the metal costlier.

    India is mainly dependent on imports for the precious metal, thus the global bullion trend sets the price trend in the country.

    In London, gold rose by 0.96 per cent to USD 1,709.70 an ounce and silver by 1.8 per cent to USD 32.85 an ounce, the highest level since April 4 this year.

    Following the general firming trend, silver gained Rs 1,100 to Rs 61,100 per kg on rising demand among industrial units and coin-makers.

    On the domestic front, gold of 99.9 and 99.5 per cent purity spurted by Rs 320 each to Rs 32,300 and Rs 32,100 per 10 grams, respectively. Sovereigns followed suit and shot up by Rs 200 to Rs 25,250 per piece of eight grams.

    Silver ready spurted by Rs 1,100 to Rs 61,100 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 1395 to Rs 63,345 per kg. Silver coins shot up by Rs 1,000 to Rs 77,000 for buying and Rs 78,000 for selling of 100 pieces

  6. #4116
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skol View Post
    Hey EZ, Hope you haven't got too much riding on gold or silver.
    Hi Skol. Note my greeting: "Hey xx " seems to be reserved by current youth and uni students, of which I'm probably not a member. I doubt whether you are in that camp either, but good on you for trying..

    Now we'll have to wait patiently for the 13th, and I'd like to have a bet with you about what will happen, but as you've already screwed JB down, I'd probably not get a good deal. I don't have a lot riding on the gold price, but should my explorer GEL do well, maybe I'll be in a good position to buy a wider spread of shares. That would be safer, I agree.

    Gold has a long way to go yet, it's going to reach US$1800 again, it's not a great jump to US$2000, even looking at the linear trend it has returned to. Thanks Strat.

    Where are the fixes for this jam we're in? What super profits are the western world going to find? It's not as simple as drilling for oil anymore.

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    Bob Jones doesn't agree with the doomsayers that the world is ending. It's not.

    The goldbugs have been promising economic hell for years and it hasn't happened, nor will it, and when the general population come to that conclusion as well gold and silver will completely implode.


    Commentary on issues of the day from the property tycoon, author and former politician



    Why the dismal science so often gets it wrong
    By Bob Jones


    9:30 AM Tuesday Sep 11, 2012


    The oddity of economic forecasting is not only consistently wrong but often diametrically 100% wrong.

    Some years ago in Britain, a chap advertised copies of The Times published on one's date of birth as a novelty gift idea. I drove to his Welsh village and bought the lot, his collection going back to 1850. Here's the point. Reading copies at random, whether 1863, 1927 or 1973, the commentary was always the same, namely Britain's buggered and all is lost.

    It's no different anywhere else and it's certainly true of New Zealand's economic commentary. The current hue and cry about debt levels reminds me of the early Reagan years when American bookshops had whole sections containing dozens of books on the coming debt-driven economic collapse, just like today. Subsequent booming prosperity made these apocalyptic claims risible. Economic commentators seemingly specialise in glass half empty outlooks, doubtless sincerely but nevertheless perpetually pessimistic.

    New Zealand's best-known economic doomsdayists are the articulate Rod Oram and Bernard Hickey, both serious Mintoitus sufferers. Life for them must be a living hell, always only seeing the dark side and blind to the overwhelming positives everywhere. Once Bernard and Rod would have received prefrontal lobotomies to brighten them up but those procedures became discredited.


    Now it's Prozac although a bottle or two of red each day would also do the trick and they would henceforth see the world in its happier, more positive side.

    Certainly they can be cured, unlike the screaming skull John Minto, for whom the only salvation is a beheading. Minto owes it to himself to end the awful misery of his misanthropic existence. If he wakes to a sunny day then it's grab the megaphone and bellow about global warming. Should $50 bank notes rain down on him, out would come the megaphone to complain that they weren't $100. If he answered the door to a naked beauty queen crying, "take me John", (for plausibility assume she's drunk) he'd and bawl her out for not bringing lunch. Thank God he's not an economist or we'd all be suicidal.

    Another current doomsdayists cry is intergenerational debt, this fearmongering usually accompanied by photos of babies, innocent to the terrible burden lying ahead. It's unadulterated garbage. The intergenerational debt certainly exists, only the reverse of the economist gloomsters' sky-is-falling falsehoods.

    Babies born today inherit a going concern amounting to trillions of dollars of infrastructure; of roads, sewerage, dams, towns and cities, bridges, libraries, institutions and so on, in replacement cost equalling thousands of times the total central and local government debt, all paid for by past generations. So yes, there's intergenerational debt although it can never be repaid, its cost having been incurred by generations now dead.

    In recent years the Economist has written about the oddity of economic forecasting not only being consistently wrong but often diametrically 100% wrong. If for example, economists agree in January that the pound will depreciate over the coming year against the dollar, the record inevitably shows the opposite happens.

    Periodically the Economist reports on theories from academics as to why this should be. No one suggests the economists are stupid because they're not, but the puzzle remains. My own suspicion is that they tend towards gloom in focusing on the always present negative elements constantly arising in any complex modern economy, through failing to view these concerns in the context of the total picture, which for most folk amounts to life bowling along happily regardless of isolated problems.

    When the financial crisis arose six years ago I received a call from TV One's Good Morning programme. They were planning a show on the numerous economists' claims that Auckland house prices were about to halve. They couldn't find a counterview so I stepped up to the mark. I pointed out that all prices are set by supply and demand, that there was a shortage of housing in Auckland and as Australasia's fastest growing city, this situation would compound in the coming years, which duly happened. All of that was elementary common sense, lost on the economist gloomsters.

    Their innate negativity was ludicrously illustrated by the then Westpac chief economist back in the 1990s when dairy prices suddenly soared. He drew headlines by wringing his hands despairingly over the possible inflationary effects from farmers' huge income boosts. It's unbelievable.

    Aside from lacking perspective, what economists consistently overlook is the extraordinary ability of people to pick themselves off the canvas when things go wrong and bounce back. Countries devastated by warfare or natural disasters quickly rebuild and are soon bubbling along again. Specific economic problems will always arise but are simply that, namely problems, and much like a leaky roof or broken arm, are soon fixed and then it's back to normality, normality being a new problem arising to be dealt with. Meanwhile life goes on and the indisputable fact is, it consistently gets better.
    By Bob Jones
    Last edited by Skol; 12-09-2012 at 09:03 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by elZorro View Post
    Hi Skol. Note my greeting: "Hey xx " seems to be reserved by current youth and uni students, of which I'm probably not a member. I doubt whether you are in that camp either, but good on you for trying..
    Really? I didn't know and I mean that, I'm not on Facebook, Twitter, Bebo, LinkedIn, MySpace or any other of that brain-stupefying nonsense.

    I might be advancing in years but I'm an optimist like Jones, not some down-in-the-mouth Scrooge waiting for the sky to fall and a basement full of silver to survive on as the world reverts to the stone age, like JBMurc.

    I see good things all the time, bustling cities, full hotels, overflowing restaurants, thousands of tourists, new cars on the road, huge aircraft load factors, increased spending, skyrocketing property prices, and to top it all off there's a 385 acre mall being built not far from here.

    The world's ending. LOL
    Last edited by Skol; 12-09-2012 at 09:45 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Skol View Post
    Really? I didn't know and I mean that, I'm not on Facebook, Twitter, Bebo, LinkedIn, MySpace or any other of that brain-stupefying nonsense.

    I might be advancing in years but I'm an optimist like Jones, not some down-in-the-mouth pessimist waiting for the sky to fall and a basement full of silver to survive on as the world reverts to the stone age, like JBMurc.

    I see good things all the time, bustling cities, full hotels, overflowing restaurants, new cars on the road, huge aircraft load factors, increased spending, and to top it all off there's a 385 acre mall being built not far from here.

    The world's ending. LOL
    Skol, I'm not all down in the mouth either, but there are signs the western world will have to speedily move away from heavy industry for export, regear for more technical and niche markets, and above all find cheaper long-term energy sources. Rod Oram is correct in that at least.

    This fabulous infrastructure that previous generations have built, is aging, and the repair costs are staggering. With a bigger proportion of many economies unemployed, and many others struggling with energy costs, who is going to pay the taxes to do it?

    Gold and energy prices move in tandem quite often. If the gold price doesn't drift along horizontally, then higher fuel prices are around the corner, and/or we're in for another crash.

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    What did I say the other day? September is the strongest month for gold and October is the weakest, expect a pullback soon.

    | TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2012
    What's Next for Gold?

    By MARK HULBERT | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR

    The metal's summer rally has washed away the proverbial wall of worry that can help keep the rally going.


    Finally, gold is showing signs of life again.

    I argued in this space three months ago that gold traders should "take heart," despite gold's disappointing behavior over the several weeks prior to then, since contrarian analysis confidently predicted that higher prices were on their way. (See Hulbert on Markets, "Gold Can Finally Redeem Itself," June 8, 2012)

    And though it took the market longer than I had imagined to do so, in recent weeks it finally did respond: Gold is now $140 an ounce higher than it was then.

    Unfortunately, contrarian analysis is not nearly as positive today about gold's prospects as it was three months ago. That's because, in the wake of the recent rally, gold timers have jumped on the bullish bandwagon, all but destroying the veritable wall of worry that would otherwise support a continuation of gold's recent rally.

    Consider the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timers tracked by my Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). It currently is 54%.

    To put this current level in context, consider that as recently as the last week of July, the HGNSI stood at minus 14.8%, which meant that at that time the average short-term gold timer was recommending that his clients allocate 14.8% of their gold trading portfolios to shorting the market -- an aggressive bet that the market would decline. Furthermore, the HGNSI was still in negative territory on August 22.

    In classic contrarian fashion, the market responded to the strong wall of worry that those negative readings represented by rallying strongly. But that wall of worry has all crumbled.

    Another revealing comparison with the HGNSI's current level comes with where this sentiment index stood in February, when gold bullion rose to the nearly the $1,800 level. The HGNSI that month never got as high as it is now, and its average level for the full month was 40.8%.

    That the sentiment index is higher today than then, even though bullion itself is lower, is yet another indication of the bullish enthusiasm that now permeates the gold trading arena.

    These various data points, taken together, suggest that the gold market has gotten ahead of itself. That's why contrarian analysis now concludes that a short term pullback is now more likely.

    How much of a pullback? Contrarian analysis typically does not try to answer this question, since the key to answering it is the speed with which the bulls throw in the towel in response to whatever weakness that materializes.

    For example, if the gold traders stubbornly hold on to their new-found bullishness in the wake of any pullback, that would suggest the gold market will have to undergo a more severe correction in order to wring the excessive bullishness out of the marketplace.

    If the bulls quickly run for the exits, in contrast, a shallower correction becomes more likely.

    Since 1985, however, according to an analysis of the HGNSI, the average correction in the wake of high readings lasts between one and three months.

    That means that, if the gold market behaves in "average" fashion, we should expect bullion to be lower than it is today between early October and early December.

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