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Thread: Gold

  1. #4151
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    Your totally right skol--Alot are seeing the $us as a totally unattractive alternative ATM.
    The price of gold is just a side issue--its a reflection of peoples loss of faith in the $us dominated system at this point.
    To focus on gold prices without looking at the reasons behind it, is not sound logic IMO.
    Last edited by skid; 16-09-2012 at 08:50 AM.

  2. #4152
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    Here's something from Resource Investor about the '5000 year store of value'. LOL


    'As Société Générale’s Dylan Grice notes, “A 15th century gold bug who’d stored all his wealth in bullion, bequeathed it to his children and required them to do the same, would be more than a little miffed when gazing down from his celestial place of rest to see the real wealth of his lineage decline by nearly 90% over the next 500 years.” In the “shorter” term, the holder of 1980-vintage gold has not only earned nothing on his investment but requires $2,300 gold just to break even on the invested capital. On the other hand, the peace of mind and the potential shelter that gold may provide in the event of chaos, collapse or all-out war is not substitutable, no matter the number-crunching reality.'

  3. #4153
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    Yes, Skol, nice one, in the very long term gold has not done that well. But looking over the last 5-10 years or so, it's a different story.

    http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/09/the-...-and-the-euro/

    This scary item will be interesting for JB.

    Some interesting charts about the currency war.
    Last edited by elZorro; 17-09-2012 at 06:40 AM.

  4. #4154
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    From Reuters:
    "We are starting to get into that heady territory where you need to be on the defensive," said Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Aubach Grayson in New York. "Trying to squeak out the last 5 percent of a move when there is potentially a 15 to 20 percent downside in my opinion is pretty dangerous stuff."

    From USA Today:

    'Almost two thirds of the of the 40 economists that USA TODAY surveyed after the announcement said that the Fed's actions would help the economy only a little by January.'

    From the WSJ:

    'Ultimately, many investors remain skeptical that the Fed's move will have a lasting impact on the markets.....'

    It's a storm in a teacup.

  5. #4155
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skol View Post
    Here's something from Resource Investor about the '5000 year store of value'. LOL


    'As Société Générale’s Dylan Grice notes, “A 15th century gold bug who’d stored all his wealth in bullion, bequeathed it to his children and required them to do the same, would be more than a little miffed when gazing down from his celestial place of rest to see the real wealth of his lineage decline by nearly 90% over the next 500 years.” In the “shorter” term, the holder of 1980-vintage gold has not only earned nothing on his investment but requires $2,300 gold just to break even on the invested capital. On the other hand, the peace of mind and the potential shelter that gold may provide in the event of chaos, collapse or all-out war is not substitutable, no matter the number-crunching reality.'
    So this guy followed his bullish opinion blindly and lost out in reduced value
    You have followed your bearish opinion blindly[it seems]and lost out from missed opportunities.
    You cant get away from the elephant in the room that gold was under a $1000oz back when you first posted in 2009
    You have got to earn credibility IMHO

    You may be right some day--but its what happens in between that counts
    Last edited by skid; 17-09-2012 at 09:37 AM.

  6. #4156
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    'Ultimately, many investors remain skeptical that the Fed's move will have a lasting impact on the markets.....'

    It's a storm in a teacup.[/QUOTE]

    Its not an issue of whether the feds move will fix the economy--we all know it probably wont-
    But it can cause Inflation

  7. #4157
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    Quote Originally Posted by skid View Post
    You have followed your bearish opinion blindly[it seems]and lost out from missed opportunities.
    You cant get away from the elephant in the room that gold was under a $1000oz back when you first posted in 2009
    No I haven't 'missed out'. I'm not into illiquid punts like gold or silver in the basement. I'm in the diversified BT Natural Resources Fund, up 12% average annually compounding since inception. I can get my money out over the phone, you'll have to go to a dealer to find out what they'll give you, less the premium, and in the event of a crash, the doors will be firmly locked.

    I've been in the BT Fund for 15 years, in that time, dividends re-invested, there's 7 times what I put in. That's enough, I'm not greedy.

    Goes up, goes down, but overall hard to beat. Down 30% in the year to May, but up 16% since July.
    Last edited by Skol; 18-09-2012 at 01:13 PM.

  8. #4158
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    Fair enough,you have chosen a fund with mostly mining co's.
    Their performance over the last 5 yrs is not looking so flash,but each to their own.
    At least you have provided an alternative.
    For some ,like me,a small holding in gold is insurance -if it goes up its a bonus-if it goes down ,I look at it as the premium for the insurance.
    For those who have bought Gold for speculation [at the time you bought into your fund,15 yrs ago],would have purchased in the $300s-400 oz-[or $700s if 5 yrs ago]-i would think they would be rather happy.
    In the end,its all about purchasing power.You keep your money,or you trade it for something you think will be worth more in the future.
    Gold is just a reflection of that purchasing power.
    If i was sitting on a large amount of $us I would be keeping a close eye on them ATM
    Thats because I think it will be inflation rather than deflation at this stage.
    If deflation rears its head,then Im sure Gold will head south[along with your mining-energy fund investments]
    Last edited by skid; 18-09-2012 at 12:15 PM.

  9. #4159
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    I think we're all in agreement, QE3 should boost the mining sector, because commodity and PGM prices will rise in US$ values. In turn, this makes gold and suitable gold miners an easy investment for the next few months at least.

    http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/09/gold...of-the-week-6/

    Impressive chart here, on the lower boundary, and the FED wants it moving in the other direction.Inflation is the way.

    http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/09/its-...he-window-now/
    Last edited by elZorro; 19-09-2012 at 06:32 AM.

  10. #4160
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    EZ,

    If you check a chart of gold or silver for the last 10 years it looks like this:

    There's plenty of warning signals.

    Parabolic price increase
    Publicity - Glenn Beck style
    Overspeculation
    ETFs
    increase in investment demand
    Recent collapse of demand in India and China
    Gold is 120% ahead of gold miners ETF for 5 years
    Huge difference between cost of extraction and gold price
    Emerging Markets faltering
    Herd-like price targets($5,000, $10,000, $15,000, etc)
    Gold way ahead of inflation-adjusted value
    It's 'different this time'.
    Antagonism to the opposing view
    When gold goes up, confirmation all is well and gold's off to the moon
    When gold goes down screams of 'manipulation', 'it's JPMorgan's' and the 'elite's' fault.

    I'm not sure it's going to be the easy money you reckon.
    Last edited by Skol; 19-09-2012 at 04:27 PM.

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