Yes, seems to be great excitement by goldbugs worldwide that the 'bottom's in'.
They've been saying that all the way down. Jim Sinclair, the most hatemailed man in the world is telling goldbugs to throw everything they've got at it, because gold's going to the moon - soon.
Reminds me of the 1987 crash. A guy I know had a lot of money in the sharemarket, when Black Monday arrived, his sharebroker rang him up and told him to throw everything at it, which he did, because the bottom was in, problem was the market was only about 20% of the way down.
But that's the general stockmarket, not gold. Gold didn't drop as far as shares did on average in 2008. Here's a gold prediction site, saying gold could be at $1800 by the end of the year. Sounds plausible if there's a continuation in the current policies.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article39811.html
A more developed article about those graphs, again the effect of oil prices and the US situation of forced borrowing to buy oil. A very high correlation there of 0.96, it implies very strongly that the more US Treasuries are sold to foreigners, the higher gold will go. Until any massive change in oil availability, of course.
Instead of postulating and trying to predict the future, have a look at the gold chart, it's going south, for nearly 2 years, and only a miracle's gonna turn it around.
"And only a miracle is going to turn it around'',sounds like postulating trying to predict the future to me.
Its Gold Vs the economy--Moneys going out of Gold and into the Equities because there is a bit less fear about the economy.
There are many things that could burst that bubble and create that ''miracle" you speak of.
The momentum seems to be swinging away from gold in this phase of time,but with the debt super cycle we appear to be in ,how long can the share market keep up the dizzy heights its in--1 month? 6months? 1 year?
Remember the ''blood on the floor'' posts?
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
Instead of postulating and trying to predict the future, have a look at the gold chart, it's going south, for nearly 2 years, and only a miracle's gonna turn it around.
But we don't need to predict it, just look at these charts, Skol. If US treasuries continue to be bought up by foreigners, it's very likely gold will continue to rise in US$. In scientific terms, it's virtually a rock solid equation. The only issue is that QE3 sees the FED buying more of the longstanding debt off the govt. Maybe that's why gold has pegged back a bit. Can the FED afford to keep doing this? In 2008 money poured into US treasuries from overseas. Not just because it was deemed to be safe. By 2010 at least, there were other reasons. China was propping up the US Currency.
Put up all the charts you like EZ, gold's on the way down, and there's probably nothing going to stop it, especially if John Paulson throws in the towel, which is very likely given his massive losses.
Well skid, look at history, the last time gold spiked exponentially was about 1979 and it subsequently crashed. Did it recover, yes, temporarily followed by the major decline. Goldbugs will say "it's different this time" and there's always differences, but the final result is always the same in any vertical spike.
Goldbugs should be used as laboratory rats in a financial behavioural psychology experiment. It's well known that people persist with scams and huge losses even though there's overwhelming evidence that they should exit the trade or the scam. We all might learn something.
Goldbugs worldwide swear black & blue that they're right and everyone else is wrong even though it's coming up 2 years since gold peaked. It's an exercise based on hope more than anything else, but they argue it's not their fault, it's Bernanke's, the Fed, the ECB, the Rothschilds, the banksters. They are betting more than investing. They argue there's manipulation and gold suppression even though there isn't a shred of evidence to prove it and never has been, and just recently JP Morgan won a court case against losing silver investors that alleged JPM had been involved in manipulating the price.
Another flawed argument is that gold is somehow 'special', the '5000 year store of value' which is actually a fallacious assumption. Historically gold is a lousy long-term bet, it's a commodity, the price fluctuates just like pork bellies, lead or feeder cattle, but goldbugs seem to have attached a great deal of importance & emotion to the metal. I even read posts from goldbugs occasionally who admire and polish the stuff, vowing never to part with it, they're keeping it for their dotage or something, but their dotage might be poverty-stricken if they're not careful and overexpose themselves to gold which to me is nothing more than shiny metal.
They could have made a lot more money putting it in cash, term deposits, property or almost anywhere else.
Equities go through the roof but diehard goldbugs hang in there losing money hand over fist. Since gold peaked, it's down by 18%, the XJO is up 25% and the DJIA is up 33%.
In the meantime goldbugs bang on about the same recycled stuff, USD crash, euro crash, debt, we're running out of gold, Portugal, the now long dead Cyprus drama, Jim Sinclair's loony predictions, full moons, King World News, Fort Knox is empty, yadda, yadda, yadda.
Originally Posted by Skol
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks