Gold

[Skol]

HUI -6%
GDX -5.73%
GDXJ -6.92%
SLV -5.32%

Tomorrow there's gonna be a bloodbath.

[Skol]

Investor psychology is an interesting subject. I read posts by goldbugs worldwide, many of them are very fearful, but many plod on as if this is merely an inconvenience as gold spirals upwards to $10,000.

They don't believe it's possible that gold may crossed the Rubicon, that a historic rout may be at hand, they don't believe the 'mainstream' news, they prefer KWN, Jim Sinclair or Peter Schiff's explanation that gold is being suppressed by evil forces, that it's Bernanke's or the banksters fault that gold is taking a hit.

They invent absurd reasons why gold can't possibly fall too far. e.g gold can't fall too far because central banks need it. Incorrect.
Another fallacy is gold can't fall because gold mines will close. Incorrect again, the mines will close if the price falls far enough and there's no demand for gold or silver.

'Backin' the truck up' at the moment is fraught with danger. I've already seen some posts where optimistic gold bugs have bought at 'bargain basement prices', hundreds of dollars above the current price.

There have been reports of some panic in India, where gold is used for business transactions, not just jewellery or hoarding. Bearish sentiment is reported as having reached extreme levels.

Hedge and mutual fund managers will have their flak jackets on taking all necessary steps to protect their customers, their companies, themselves and their reputations, they'll be selling or shorting, catching the falling knife isn't an option.

Gold ETFs are an unknown quantity for gold because it hasn't had a major decline since their inception, but they make gold extremely liquid and a run on gold ETF's could precipitate a crash. On one day recently the GLD ETF had to sell 20.8 tonnes. One day gold or gold shares will be good buying, but who knows when, the last bear market in gold went for 20 years, this bad boy is only one day old.

If you take your gold to a dealer tomorrow, will the doors be open? What will the premium be if they are?

[Stranger_Danger]

Disc : I own no gold, gold stocks, ETF's etc.

I also agree with you about many gold bugs. There is always an excuse when it doesn't go their way, but when it does go their way, they're automatically on the side of angels?

A lot scares me about gold bugs.

However, you said

"they prefer KWN, Jim Sinclair or Peter Schiff's explanation that gold is being suppressed by evil forces, that it's Bernanke's or the banksters fault that gold is taking a hit."

Now, forget all the conspiracy theories. Ask yourself just one question.

Is it "evil" (forget about forces) to muck around with the price of money? Is it evil to double a nations money supply in no time?

And, will there be consequences to this?

I say yes, but whether gold is a partial hedge, I don't know.

I can make a case for gold, have started watching it more in the last month (nowhere NEAR buying though) but I must say, the "true believers" are actually more a reason for me NOT to buy. They kinda scare me!

[JBmurc]

Well there's extreme's on both levels I've heard guys knocking gold silver for the last decade since $300au $6-7ag now it looks like it's in a bear market and they love telling everyone how right there've been all along hey skol.....stupid gold bugs LOL even though many of us have made some good profits from it ....personal I don't hold gold bullion not when silver is by far the better bullion investment...but I do hold two gold producers,, and I wouldn't hold pure silver producers for the same reasons ...I explain below...

I hold PGI it's costs are forecast $350-400per oz CVR $700-900per oz planned ( I'm confident they turn a profit going forward gold not yet that low)

I see from many of the failing ASX Silver producers costs are higher than sales imho great reason to hold the bullion and not trying to mine it /or invest in the miners/explorers...good link below explains how silver producers will soon just have to go on C&M can't see us humans not wanting the 10,000 applications silver is used in ...yet at these prices the biggest producers are going backwards at a rate of knots..the biggest needs 31-32 to break even-http://silverdoctors.com/break-even-cost-for-silver-rises-towards-30-as-coeur-hecla-silver-standard-show-net-income-losses/

http://silverdoctors.com/2011-comple...mining-silver/

It's all very basic ...problem is all the human emotion FEAR N GREED cloud the facts

In the mean time I'm trying to buy some more Silver bullion as cheap as possible,,, as soon as momssilvershop sort out there site issues!!!! I'm more than happy to give them my NZD for silver bullion at $28usd oz

I see trademe sales of bullion sales are ranging from $40-59oz NZD

[Skol]

In the mean time I'm trying to buy some more Silver bullion as cheap as possible,,, as soon as momssilvershop sort out there site issues!!!! I'm more than happy to give them my NZD for silver bullion at $28usd oz

I see trademe sales of bullion sales are ranging from $40-59oz NZD

You'll have plenty of opportunity to back the truck up soon, silver will fall further than gold because it's less desirable and illiquid. Goldbugs seem very fearful, I can almost smell it coming out of the screen, denying that gold can possibly fall because of the Indian Wedding Season, gold is hard to obtain, central banks are buying, the Chinese are buying (heard that one before when the peak oilers said the Chinese were buying oil, then it crashed), the Indians are buying it. lol
Desperation setting in.


http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingvie...-bigger-falls/

Gonna be interesting all right, always wondered where the money would go when the gold mania subsided, now I'm going to find out.

Investor psychology's a fascinating subject, if the worst comes to the worst JB, do what many investors do, pour yourself a few doubles and pretend it's not happening.

[skid]

With all due respect ,there are more posts about Goldbugs than there are of Gold itself.
Why the obsession with Goldbugs? Its just a side show that invites back ground ''chatter''
Whether you have bought as a safe guard or your trading,you get the best facts and info you can, and make your investment decision for better or worse,--Everything else is just static IMO

[Aaron]

Hey Skol any ideas on how far and how fast gold will fall. Below $1,000oz within a year?

[Skol]

Not sure, but the bloodbath has begun. XGD down over 10%.

[elZorro]

Not a bad leading question Aaron, but Skol was a step ahead of you. In the last hour or two gold has dropped a lot, $70 or so, and that is coincident with the US$ not doing anything major, in fact it's dropped back a bit over the last few days, to around 0.82. So this is a short-term thing, and gold could get back up again in much the same timescale. There's some kind of a panic selloff going on, and presumably just as many are buying as selling. It's like entire countries have been pressed to pay their terminal tax or whatever. I know what that feels like.

[Skol]

Nice sugar coating EZ, this is only the curtain-raiser, you'll see some real action when the US market opens and panicked goldbugs press the SELL button on gold ETF's.

ETF's allow anyone to buy gold within the comfort of their own home, they can also sell. For some strange reason goldbugs see a difference between 'ETF gold' and real gold. There's no difference, they're both going to go down in a heap together.

You're watching history in the making, but how fast this baby goes down is anyone's guess, but probably a lot faster than 1980, because there were no ETF's then.

Also will depend on how many scams are exposed as the price drops, a la Bernie Madoff.